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    Can we retire now? How to factor in risk of rental real estate?

    Managing 10 rental units you by definition can't be "retired". You will still have a job: landlord.
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    Retiring without a car?

    We live in a Seattle suburb - the size of Manhattan Island but only 25K people. But, Bainbridge Island is quite walkable if you who live within the town center: our Walk Score is 80. And the bonus is that we can "walk" to downtown Seattle, via the 35 minute ferry ride, much more...
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    Am I crazy? 100% of portfolio in Vanguard high yield corporate

    If you don't plan to ever sell a share, have you compared risk/return vs. an annuity? You would seem an ideal case for this: no children, and a shortfall of $ saved vs. desired annual spending.
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    No early retirement for these families

    Another fine point is that it is not just entrepreneurial *successes* that create jobs and advance the overall economy - even *failures* often add value. A favorite example of Andy Grove, founder of Intel, is the "railroad fever" that swept the U.S. in the 19th century. Far more railroads were...
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    No early retirement for these families

    Dex, I was trying to imply that the risks these people incurred by their speculative business investments were relatively modest, to the point that some would scorn to even call them "risks". Every day people venture their lives in order to get to the United States - penniless, homeless, and...
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    No early retirement for these families

    Robert Louis Stevenson wrote about the "desperate game we play in life". Risk is relative, and in the long run, we're all dead. If someone is compelled to follow their dream, rather than tidily run out their string, who are we to criticize? Charles Goodyear perfected vulcanization in his 40s -...
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    Company Stock Options/ESPP Strategy

    As far as ESPP, it is worth holding to get favorable tax treatment ("qualifying disposition"). It is not a flat 2 years though, the formula is more complicated: the sale has to be a year after purchase *and* 2 years after the offering period. As far as RSUs, I sell on vest although I confess...
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    A little more good news - ARM "time bomb" defused

    sanclem, without a spreadsheet model with some backtesting against historical interest rates movements, looking both at the mortgage costs and investment of the savings, we are both talking through our hats here, and personally, I'd probably go for the fixed rate too. But, human psychology...
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    A little more good news - ARM "time bomb" defused

    Another reason not to get a fixed rate is not having an expectation of being in the same home for 10+ more years. Since mortgages are in general no longer assumable, there is no way to preserve the asset value in the case where inflation goes up, other than by being locked in to a given home (or...
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    a 29 year old retiree wow

    Sheesh, you are all sure being hard on Ms. Madison. I mean, "retired", "semi-retired", "stay-at-home mom" - what's the big diff? The main points that qualify her as FIRE in my book are that she has left the corporate 9-5 working world and is essentially in a decumulation mode. My 77-year-old...
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    Firecalc says my portfolio reaching critical stage

    youbet, If "what folks really need is less variability" then they should buy inflation-adjusting annuities. My guess is that at 70 years old, as the OP may be, the payout on immediate annuity is going to be more than Firecalc's 100% success rate over default 30 year payout period, probably...
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    Firecalc says my portfolio reaching critical stage

    Are you running Firecalc with default 30 year payout period setting? If so it is rather extreme to say that "barely at 100%" is "critical". Since you say you are over 65, you would have less than 15 years of average life expectancy, and the chances of you being alive 30 years hence are probably...
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    The "Father" of 4% SWR doesn't recommend it...

    Funny how neither the BusinessWeek article nor any posts on this thread so far mentioned age. But life expectancy is really the primary factor that will determine what a safe withdrawal rate is, assuming the typical definition of "safe" (not broke before death). Futzing about whether it's 4% or...
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    how to value lease-option?

    dex - thanks, that's a very good point re: thinking about FIRE as cash accounting. haha - joking aside, even in the case of a future transfer to public ownership there could be a financial benefit over and above the philanthropically desirable outcome. For example the leaseholder group could...
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    how to value lease-option?

    dex, The immediate reason is simply an anal desire to have a reasonably accurate estimate of net worth relative to FIRE-readiness, hence the post to this forum. The other reason is that this lease-option is cooperatively owned by a small set of shareholders. Very infrequently shares are sold...
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    how to value lease-option?

    Not divorce, but it's admittedly quite an unusual situation. One of the things I'm struggling with in valuing it is that there doesn't seem to be much if any value to the "option premium": like a deep in the money call option, it's always going to be economic to exercise at the end of the...
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    how to value lease-option?

    For net worth calculation purposes I'd like to be able to impute a value to a lease-option in a substantial waterfront recreational property with the following somewhat unusual terms: 1. Exclusive use of the property for next 20 years, rent free other than paying property taxes and maintaining...
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    Three Takes on Whether $1 Million Is Enough to Retire

    The real key to the article's assumption of working until retirement age isn't full SS benefits it's decreased life expectancy. 5% is a safe withdrawal rate when you can expect to live only 18 years longer, as is true for a 65 year old man today. And even if you are withdrawing at a rate...
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