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What does "fail" mean?

Very good question. I believe that investing strategies have to change depending on economic and market trends. FIRE does some very long term averaging, and it's really good for that. In normal times one could do very well with FIRE. Every now and then a perfect economic storm arrives and you...

50% gold/silver-both physical metal and funds, with funds in 401(k); 50% australian dollar and aussie small caps (I have dual citizenship, so buy directly in my Australian superannuation fund, not through ADRs). The same since 2001-2, with some minor fluctuations in between.

I'll be happy to start my own thread. :greetings10:

If you feel trolled upon, that probably says more about your own defensiveness and insecurity than anything else.

I didn't come here looking for a critique of my current investments or of my vision of the future. I'm quite confident in my portfolio and in my understanding of the economy. I came here to see how people would invest if they held my same view of the future. I'm not going to adopt anyone else's...

I didn't have any particular opinion about how I wanted the discussion to go. I found it very illuminating, though, in terms of how defensive many people were, and still are, about asset allocation and firecalc. You can see even now the childish responses of certain individuals to my posts. It...

You're timing's about eight years too late. Best for some people to stay, um, safely allocated.

Why?

When I first joined this forum I thought I'd stumbled onto a group of people who were honestly and open-mindedly considering early retirement. Instead, I felt like I crashed into re-runs of Flip This House. Everyone was taking about asset allocation models when even a blind fool could see that...

I should mention that I put my money back in 2001 in gold (50%) and Australian dollars (50%) (more or less). I was criticized when I started posting here nearly a year ago for not being diversified enough. Amazing! "Asset allocation" models are for people who don't really understand what's...

Firecalc is based on historical results, and even factors in the worst of the past. The problem is, it doesn't account for a future that could be way beyond the worst case of the past. If you plan on living to be a gazillion years old, then it doesn't matter... presumably it'll all work out...

I haven't read the article and have no desire to do so. What interests me is how any talk about debasement of currencies, etc. etc. is seen as somehow "exteme" and then gets lumped in with the wackos. Debasement of currencies is not an extreme idea... it's simply what happens when too much...

I agree with you. Gold investment doesn't require conspiracy theories. I have to admit, though, that what caught my attention about gold in 2001 was a conspiracy theory that was so intriguing it motivated me to do some research on, what at that time, a discounted investment. I never accepted...

I have expressed many opinions since joining this forum... just do a search on "ultimo." Where will gold be in one year? Only a fool predicts. I bought gold in 2001. I've had years where it went up, and years where it went down. One year doesn't matter... five or 10 or 15 do matter. Across that...

I'm not looking for reasons to be scared, either. I'm just looking for ways to make money.

Yep, and more so every day. But DON'T need approval. Was interested in ideas only.

Jeez, this is exactly where I dropped out of the forum the last time. It's not about CPI. CPI is a symptom, not the disease.

I stopped by this forum a few months ago saying something pretty similar and then found myself dealing with people who can best be described as often wrong but never in doubt.

That crowded room can be pretty dense, eh?

The world economy is weakening. Why on earth would someone follow a model that says to keep 20%+ of one's money in equities? I don't get it. The only place to be right now is in cash and cash equivalents. A small return is better than a huge loss.

"The future cannot be based on past performance." You can't look at the last 30 years of inflation data and draw too many conclusions about the future. Economists predict what they can predict, and when they fail, they come up with new models. The failures are what bite us in the arse every...

You go, Uncle Mick! As for yearsto go, or whatever your name is, I think you're being very disingenuous. I think you're bending over backwards to justify a very naive point of view. Core inflation is exactly what's left after you strip away all those things Greenspan excluded. Where were you 10...

But my question was, was gold accurately valued then? This was at the peak of the stock market bubble and all commodities were undervalued. You're talking about the mainstream economists who ao accurately predicted the recession, and the housing crash and the decline of the dollar? Seriously...

Hi Spanky, it'll be about 45% commodities and commodities-related, 45% foreign currencies and 10% gold (in addition to that which might be included in the commodities funds). You're assuming, I take it, that gold was accurately priced in 2000, at the height of the stock market bubble, and that...