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There's a fun spreadsheet described here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/annuity-yes-no.htm

For thirty years I DCA'd monthly ... with every paycheck. It sounds more sanitary than "lumpsum". :) P.S. Because some claim that the fraction of returns that are positive decreases to 50% as the time period decreases, I've added that to the tutorial.

I suspect it's because people who invest with every paycheck like to say (with pride): "I do DCA!" PS#1 Because some believe that daily, weekly and monthly up / down days are quite different, I've modified the spreadsheet to do these. PS#2 There's a dark side to DCA. ;D

That's what I would have said, but (of course) it depends upon whether the increases are bigger than the decreases. Anyway, I decided to test this commonly held belief, here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/stocks-up-down.htm Interesting, eh?

Finally got around to doing that DCA or All-at-once stuff, here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/DCA-all-at-once.htm You select an allocation of four assets and download a bunch of monthly returns and see which ritual would give the better result: $12K invested All-at-once or $1K per month for 12...

Ed: There's some stuff on charting, here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Excel_charts.htm The spreadsheet is here (somewhere): http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Excel/ Probably the ones that begin with "Excel". scrinch: The spreadsheet has monthly S&P data from 1928 to 2001 in columns A & B. If'n y'all...

There's a fun spreadsheet: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Excel/DCA-stuff.xls It's described here, at the bottom ... sort of: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/DCA_for_masochists.htm You click a button and get 12 consecutive months of S&P500 returns (selected from the returns for year 1928 to year 2001)...

typical american responses ciao

*****: The all-time #1 best selling Canadian book (after the Bible) is "the Wealthy Barber". It's about a fictional barber who gives financial advice ... on everything, to everyone. Because it's a story, because it reads like a novel, because it's down-to-earth prose, because it's humorous and...

TH: If you send me e-mail we can discuss some ritual for putting the stuff on your site. I'm afraid it'd be impossible for me to identify the ... uh, most important stuff. (You could do that, eh?) I've spent ten years and 10,000 hours on my website and every hour is so very important ::)...

*****: The CD includes everything on my website ... except pics of my grandkids :) It's over 100Mbytes and includes over 3000 files. At my age, just the thought of redoing any of it in some other format (like PDF) gives me coronary tribulations. In fact, the CD was created to avoid e-mail**...

Michael: "If you need to withdraw 10% to survive, the SWR tells you to go back to the drawing board and make a new plan." If you need 10% to survive, then going back to the drawing board don't hardly help much :) Either that, or the 10% survival requirements were fictitious. (If you can...

John Galt: "... SWR conversation is fun and interesting, I just don't really use it myself ..." My sentiments exactly. However, it occurs so often on discussion forums that I've been writing about it for years - and having all that fun doing so! The curious thing is that, in all those years...

Hyperborea asks: As a counter question, what would you use to size your yearly withdrawals if not some "SWR" number? Would you withdraw some amount calculated based just on need without any reference to the portfolio? How would you decide when to take extra withdrawls if your portfolio has done...

*****: Thanks for the explanation. I can see how an annual SWR calculation may be useful (for you). Nords: Hey! That URL describes a scheme much like my "sensible withdrawals" spreadsheet - which I call Dynamic Monte Carlo :) Neato! arrete: "I also keep an eye on various parts of my budget...

Many thanks for your replies. I can understand that you may use SWR to estimate eventual portfolio requirements and/or make adjustments to your portfolio contributions (before retirement) and/or adjust asset allocation (while you're making investments). BUT, when you eventually DO retire (and...

I find this SWR analysis a fascinating exercise, but I have a question (which, hopefully, somebuddy can answer): How would one actually use the SWR number, once it's been calculated? Do you imagine calculating each January and using the number to determine your withdrawals for the coming year...

JWR1945: Neato! (I'm surprised at the similarity of results!)

BigMoney: I'd suggest Statistical Historical Investigation of Termination ::)

Bob_Smith: My personal favourite "Safe" withdrawal calculation is (sorta) like this: http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/sensible_withdrawals.htm

BigMoney: For Canadians, it has to be Canasta: Canadian Alternate Norm After Stockmarket Tanks, A? ::)

BigMoney: I always found it curious that people who calculate a 30-year SWR based upon the worst 30 years (in the last 75 or 100 years) assume (I suppose?) that they're considering calendar years: Jan thru Dec. Has anybuddy considered years starting in Feb or Mar or whatever? Suppose that one...

Oops ... another question that interests me**: If somebuddy asked you to suggest a "Safe" withdrawal rate for the next 27 years, would you suggest something around 4%? If the person then mentioned that they had started withdrawing three years ago at 4% and now their rate happened to be 6%...

About using correlation in Monte Carlo simulation, there's a spreadsheet described here which does that: http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/Monte-Carlo.htm About correlation between various assets, there's a table (somewhere near the bottom) here: http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/Covariance.htm...

... good years following the bad years Amen. Let's pray that that always happens :) http://home.golden.net/~pjponzo/SWR-4.htm