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    a taste of things to come?

    I travel at least once a year to Thailand with my wife to visit her family. So, I schedule all dental work, except for checkups and cleanings, during the trip. My dental clinic in Bangkok falls over backwards to treat me well. My favorite item is the price chart next to the receptionist clearly...
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    25 times income needs?

    It seems to me that many people here take the 4% SWR rate somewhat too seriously, although I may be reading too much into people's intentions from the tone of the present discussion. In my opinion, a long time horizon makes the results both more and less predictable. All of this long-term...
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    Emotionally Attached to my house

    I think the right question to ask about such matters as an emotional attachment to a house is whether you can afford it or not. We don't have any trouble criticizing someone's choice to buy something he can't afford, but "must" have for some emotional reason like gaining face. A "hold" decision...
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    secular bear market

    As perhaps you know, there has been a lot of criticism of the "Fed Model", i.e. what we think Greenspan was thinking. For example, Asness found it to be a poor predictor or long-term returns (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=381480). I found the other responses to be...
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    secular bear market

    I gather from a recent discussion that the notion that the stock market is currently in a secular bear market is an unfamiliar one. This article for financial planners presents the case: http://tinyurl.com/ojkmj
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    Interviewing Realtors

    Sure you can. You're the customer. Call them up and say that you want someone you can relate to more easily. They will figure it out and send someone age-appropriate.
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    Krugman on Health Care Crisis

    Articles like this breed despair. The means to provide cheaper health care to all Americans lies within our grasp and we won't take it. Well, maybe at some point the crisis will be large enough to provoke fundamental change. These days I get as much of my dentistry as possible done in Bangkok...
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    Go all in or easy does it?

    You're not paying attention. Shiller's graph is real housing prices, i.e. with inflation backed out. So the housing booms of the 70's and 80's reverted right back to historical norms, after you take out the effects of consumer inflation. The commentary on that page is not Schiller's, it's by...
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    Go all in or easy does it?

    Here's an analysis of Hulbert's view that includes a pretty information graph to answer just your question. VLMAP has done pretty well: http://tinyurl.com/zaye5 Here's my favorite graph on the housing bubble from Schiller at Yale, who apparently did the first national study of housing prices...
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    Go all in or easy does it?

    Here's another example of market timing that has a track record and academic review (which gives the lie to the claim that "no studies have shown that market timing works.") See Mark Hulbert's article: http://tinyurl.com/pofgw This mid-term indicator has been evaluated since 1968 and has been...
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    Go all in or easy does it?

    Additional research is going on. But I think avoiding losing money is just as important as making money, sometimes more so. You're right in principle, but I think it is more likely at this point that earnings will go down than up. Here's a quote from John Hussman's weekly commentary of...
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    Realtor vs. FSBO

    Real estate agents are scum. When I was a buyer they lied to me about boilers being replaced and about some amenities. When I sold my apartment here in NYC last spring, I interviewed four agents from three big name firms. I asked each why I should hire him or her and not one of the others. This...
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    Go all in or easy does it?

    As for the 43% market decline in recessions, that is not my research. I was quoting from John Mauldin: "My studies show that the stock market drops an average of 43% before and during a recession. I think the next big leg down in the stock market will be precipated by a recession. Could we see...
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    Go all in or easy does it?

    Olav, Too much agreement here. Someone has got to speak up for market timing. I happen to think that you are right and everyone else is wrong. Yes, you can time the market and now is a good time to stay out. Buy and hold is the advice of the generals fighting the last war. It was very good...
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    Heres a good one...whats your effective tax rate

    Re: Heres a good one...whats your marginal tax rate Including state and city income tax, about 36%.
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    Bonds vs Bond funds

    I agree with the earlier poster. Currently, I only buy Treasuries so I buy the bonds and not the bond funds. I also hold only T-bills at the moment as the Fed continues to raise the short-end. At some point in the next year I expect to make the call that the Fed is finished and ladder out to...
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    Umbrella insurance levels while ER ?

    >Any renters with umbrella insurance? Do you also have renter's insurance? I would be willing to switch to an auto insurance company that had higher limits, if anyone knows of one. . . We are renters, have renter's insurance, and an umbrella policy of $1M. Will up it to $2M on renewal...
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    what % of salary do you live on

    Life is expensive here in Manhattan. We plan to earn about $161,000 this year and hope to save $63,000 for a total cost of $98,000 or 61% of gross.
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    Everbank Icelandic CD 8.24%

    Actually, you don't lose FDIC with Everbank. Your depoists and CDs at Everbank are FDIC insured up to the standard limits.
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    Everbank Icelandic CD 8.24%

    Don't forget the 1.5% round trip currency conversion that Everbank will charge you. Also, if you panic and redeem early you lose 100% of your interest plus they charge you more for the return trip back to dollars. So, 8.24 - 1.5 = 6.74% net return before taxes. Compare to the current I-bond rate...
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    True Diversification

    The trouble with diversification is that you can't get enough of it. Due to globalization of financial markets and increased levels of trade in the past fifteen years which has synchronized business cycles, equity markets worldwide correlate more than they used to. And they are susceptible to...
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    Baby Boomers

    Dave, As a boomer who has always admired dissent, I appreciate hearing your viewpoint . While the resentment against my generation surprises me, it doesn't offend me. I had at least noticed how much harder it is for your generation to get started in life compared to us. I was aware of all the...
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    Should I do the 401K catchup this year?

    Red, I am in approximately the same position as you. I am continuing to max out my 401k, including the catch-up amount. My reasoning is: 1. reduce current taxes 2. increase the tax-deferred percentage of my assets with a view toward a Roth conversion whenever I am eligible. Even without a...
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    Did Your Interest in Investing / Saving Increase with Your Net Worth?

    I always regarded investing as beyond my abilities and decidedly beyond my interest. I worked for years in equity investment firms and thought the analysts/money managers were insufferable bozos who had all reverted to the mean. However, I was always terrified of financing retirement since my...
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    soon to be portfolio

    PJ, Will you do strict rebalancing to these percentages? If so, at what frequency? In addition to measuring performance will you also measure correlation on an ongoing basis? Will you rebalance based on changes in correlation? What is your expect return? What is your expected volatiility?
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