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    The hopeless optimist's break-even game!

    Let's play an optimistic little game. A recent thread started by Ziggy29 dictated that the market bottom is now behind us, and it's just up, up, up from here. Fantastic! So, how far do you have to go with respect to the S&P 500 in order to break even? Break-even shall be defined as the point...
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    The Bottle Imp - an allegory of the greater-fool principle.

    Has anyone read a short story called "The Bottle Imp" by Robert Louis Stevenson? It's a very interesting and charming story. I had read it when I was very young and was gravely impressed by it. A man is offered for purchase an ancient bottle that contains an imp, which will grant any wish...
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    Kirk Kerkorian - buy high, sell low, 100 million shares of Ford, all gone.

    Kirk Kerkorian has dumped the last of his 100,000,000 shares of Ford. Buy high, sell low, anyone? Kerkorian Sells Last of Ford Stake - WSJ.com
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    A little story about cash.

    An interesting (perhaps?) story about cash: When I was young, I was fortunate to obtain a summer internship at a famous laboratory. I was given a hotel-like room on site, which was cleaned by a maid once a week. I was too poor or naive to have a bank account at the time, and I managed to...
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    Tax Loss Harvest - when is it "too much?"

    Tax Loss Harvest - when is it "too much?" plus allocation questions. Hello forum members, It's possible for me to *short term* tax-loss harvest well into six figures at the moment (sickeningly well!). But how much is too much? 1) Am I correct that there is no advantage to TLH except for the...
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    Tax loss harvest bond fund(s)?

    I hold two bond funds in a taxable account. One is VFSUX, Vanguard's short-term investment grade fund. Note that this is a taxable fund in a taxable account, which I recognize is not optimal. The other is VCADX, Vanguard's intermediate-term California-only tax-exempt fund. Compared to the...
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    The toll so far - 3 extra years of work.

    When I wrote my "Hi, I am" post just 2 long, long, long months ago, my portfolio was down just a little - maybe 2% or so. I had been closing in on FIRE, which could have been a few months away. Now my portfolio is down much more: 15% or so. Of course, most of you share this pain, or worse. I...
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    Golden Handcuffs - a tougher form of the "one more year" syndrome.

    Hello all, I’m about 50, single, no dependents, with a very secure job, a satisfactory middle-class income, no debt, solid savings sufficient for a modest early retirement, and expectations of a reliable pension and reasonably-low cost health benefits. I’m set for life, right? Well, it seems I...
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    Age-based SWR strategies taking more sophisticated account mortality statistics?

    I have a theoretical question / issue concerning age of death predictions and SWR. It appears to me that current age and predicted age of death should be taken into account in a more sophisticated way when estimating safe withdrawal rates. For example, if I'm retired at 50, I may have a 50%...
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