~10 years from ER, any reason not to be 100% equities?

[chinaco]

No way to know how the future will turn out.

Plus, there are too many variables to really discuss this topic. It depends on many many factors.

Going all stock might yield a better outcome (looking at historic averages).... but you would have to time the lock-in value with a conversion to some bonds at some point in time... that timing would be critical to not encounter revers dollar cost averaging during the withdrawal phase (assuming you cannot live off of stock dividends alone).

Some of the decision also depends on the stock market... look at the secular bull of the late 80's and 90's. Compare that to the last 10 years.

Obviously if the stock market is marching upwards over a long period (even with periodic bears)... holding stocks over time will increase. During the last 10 years.... it looks to me like up down sideways.....

You cannot predict the future.... if something happened and you needed the money unexpectedly, the bonds would provide a little more stability in the pricing.

Plus, the rebalancing provides some level of buy low sell high action along the way.


IMO - Strategic allocation is a more safe approach. The amount of stocks vs bonds depends on your appetite for risk. In this case.... trade-off of a little higher return vs the risk of delaying retirement.

 

[intent]

Risk of not retiring.

NASDAQ 5,000 circa 2000 . . . eleven years later 2,800
Nikkei 35,000 circa 1990 . . . 21 years later 9,800
Nikkei 20,000 circa 2000 . . . 11 years later 9,800
SPX 1,500 circa 2000 . . . 11 years later 1,342

Stocks don't always go up, even over decades.

Ok, that helps to explain the reasoning ... thank you. So, if I'm understanding correctly, during these downturns bonds didn't have a corresponding downturn, and in fact might have increased in value?

FWIW, wife and I have been DCAing for the past 10+ years into 401Ks - all going into mutual funds. We think we're now about 10 years or so from RE and are trying to formulate an AA that will make sense going forward. I figure bonds will need to become a part of that AA at some point, just trying to determine how much and how soon for our comfort level.

Appreciate all of the advice.