2024 Investment Performance Thread

[street]

Still working, 2025 will be my last year, my youngest graduates HS in May, trying to figure out the best exit strategy that benefits me the most. Love my job, but it is just too demanding.

Thank You and it will all fall into place and I wish you well.

 

[target2019]

What is going to slow down the growth? It is hard to speculate without mentioning a trade war!

We live with the cycle of capitalism. SHTF like a black swan flying through a wind farm.

 

[sengsational]

14.4% YTD, all-in, with 1/3 bonds and global diversity. I'm going to give it to my kids. No strings, but usually it's very easy for me to suggest, "put it all in equities". Maybe "have a solid plan to get it all into equities within a few years" might be better.

 

[audreyh1]

What is going to slow down the growth? It is hard to speculate without mentioning a trade war!

We don’t have to worry about that until next year! ha ha

 

[marko]

I like to run my "Personal Rate of Return" numbers which broadly is "growth minus withdrawals". It better tells me if I'm ahead or behind with a "net" number.

For 2024, ytd, I'm at 10.54% according to Excel.

TRowe, who uses a considerably more complicated process by looking at the timing of gains/withdrawals, pegs it at 15.68% ytd with a 7.7% over the past 19 years.

 

[street]

I like to run my "Personal Rate of Return" numbers which broadly is "growth minus withdrawals". It better tells me if I'm ahead or behind with a "net" number.

For 2024, ytd, I'm at 10.54% according to Excel.

TRowe, who uses a considerably more complicated process by looking at the timing of gains/withdrawals, pegs it at 15.68% ytd with a 7.7% over the past 19 years.

Interesting data! So, the 7.7% for the last 19 years include withdrawals, right?
Do you have data on what that return would be without the withdrawals ovah the last 19 years?
Thanks

 

[sengsational]

@marko , I take pains (in this thread) to adjust for income and spending so I get the best estimate of portfolio gains or losses. But considering the spend amount in relation to income and growth is another metric worthwhile to track. I guess I do that with the withdrawal rate calculation.

 

[target2019]

We don’t have to worry about that until next year! ha ha

We'll hit an all time high I am hoping. If not, I'll just get high.

 

[marko]

Interesting data! So, the 7.7% for the last 19 years include withdrawals, right?
Do you have data on what that return would be without the withdrawals ovah the last 19 years?
Thanks

Yes that includes withdrawals. I've never been able to figure out TRowe's process as it involves a lot of when things occur. My spreadsheet says 10.21% yoy had I not withdrawn anything but I'm not known for great math logic and I'm pretty sure that's incorrect.

 

[street]

Yes that includes withdrawals. I've never been able to figure out TRowe's process as it involves a lot of when things occur. My spreadsheet says 10.21% yoy had I not withdrawn anything but I'm not known for great math logic.

Thank You! I'm not a great math logic, either. That is why I'm always intrigued by the numbers/data people come up with.

Have a Great Day.

 

[audreyh1]

I haven’t tried to track the multi-year performance of our retirement assets as it gets complicated with annual withdrawals. I have the data, but I guess it’s not important to me to crunch it all.

What I do track over long periods, since retirement in fact, is how our net worth is tracking against inflation. That’s important to me. If after decades of spending, our net worth is still ahead of inflation, I’m very happy about it.

 

[VanWinkle]

Why?

Maximum growth assets for the Roth to maximize tax free growth.

 

[VanWinkle]

I suspect some people put high growth assets in their Roth for use later or to pass on to heirs.

They also may be using bonds for income.

You hit the jackpot audrey1, that is why I find it hard to put bonds in my Roth. No growth with bonds and pulling the interest for income.

 

[5Miler]

I have been computing investment returns based only on my numbers as I haven't included DGFs portfolio. The DGF designation causes me to track separately even though we have been together for 33 years now. So, although I have separate Quicken accounts for us due to tax tracking, I modified my investment spreadsheets to combine our results. Her returns for this year are almost exactly 3% less than mine due to the laggardly performance of her Microsoft shares that have only returned 14.67% ytd. She has about 1,000 shrs so they induced a bit of drag. She is not complaining though.

Nov - 4.12%
YTD - 19.25%

Six digit returns in Feb, Mar, Jun and Nov.

 

[finnski1]

I never looked from a month-to-month gain in 6 figure gains. Interesting!!
Ronstar, you got my curiosity, so I looked since I always gather data at month end start of new month.
My results are 4 times this year in 6 digits gains. That would be something to get a 7-digit number for a month's gain. I am very doubtful I will very see that kind of gains.

My hiking buddy had a 7 figure gain in one day. Today. Course that stock is down 2/3rds from it's high less than a year ago. He is up a good amount still.

 

[street]

My hiking buddy had a 7 figure gain in one day. Today. Course that stock is down 2/3rds from it's high less than a year ago. He is up a good amount still.

Wow!!! 7 digit in one day is wealthy, wealthy!!! You hang around with the big boys. LOL

 

[finnski1]

Wow!!! 7 digit in one day is wealthy, wealthy!!! You hang around with the big boys. LOL

Not necessarily. His stock was up almost 29% today. He has way too much concentration in it. Something like 80%.

 

[frayne]

Depends on where you put the decimal point.

Wow!!! 7 digit in one day is wealthy, wealthy!!! You hang around with the big boys. LOL

 

[street]

Lol!!
I know some very wealthy people that made it big like the Beverly Hillbillies did. Overnight multi, multi-millionaires.

 

[Gumby]

Depends on where you put the decimal point.

And the currency. I'm newly back from visiting Japan, and it was a little disconcerting to pay over 100,000 yen for a two night hotel stay.

 

[sengsational]

I haven’t tried to track the multi-year performance of our retirement assets as it gets complicated with annual withdrawals. I have the data, but I guess it’s not important to me to crunch it all.

What I do track over long periods, since retirement in fact, is how our net worth is tracking against inflation. That’s important to me. If after decades of spending, our net worth is still ahead of inflation, I’m very happy about it.

I do a simple, but accurate enough calculation for this thread. The calculation is primarily all investable assets at two points in time, but with the effect of "net in or out" between these dates factored in. We used to call it monkey something, from the online calculator that did it. All it does is presume the net in or out was uniform over time, which I found to be a good approximation for the gold standard "internal rate of return."

As to inflation, we don't talk about it much in this thread, but my spreadsheet supporting my tracking has four sections: nominal without spending adjustment, nominal with spending adjustment (reported here), then inflation adjusted with and without spending adjustment. Inflation tempers the enthusiasm a bit, but it's really a better model

 

[audreyh1]

We’re allowed to spend our inflation-adjusted nest egg down somewhat, so to me net worth keeping up with inflation is gravy, anything ahead of inflation great!

 

[Midpack]

10.9% thru 11/30. We'll see what Dec brings.

 

[kcowan]

We don’t have to worry about that until next year! ha ha

We have to have our 2025 YE forecasts readily by close of trading in January! So I am pondering where things go. This year was off the scales for all forecasts! Will we be smarter next year?

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, looking ahead! I don’t usually start thinking about 2025 market performances until we are close to the new year. I have to see where 2024 ends first.

And regardless I have no clue. It’s just a wild and crazy guess, somewhat influenced by multi-year market patterns.