2025 Investment Ideas What to Buy and What to Avoid. Video by Ethan S. Braid, CFA

[2HOTinPHX]

This guy just showed in my youtube feed yesterday. His videos are pretty short but I think he has some good thoughts and charts in them. Does he make a pretty good case for changes or just a slick sales pitch? We have always been buy and hold S&P or Total market funds, keep it simple. Now in retirement and with the upcoming changes in 2025 questioning if we should rethink our positions. Wondering what others more knowledgeable about investing might think about his recommendations for 2025.

 

[Al18]

Hopefully you rebalanced your assets this year, to maintain your desired stock/fixed income ratio.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Hopefully you rebalanced your assets this year, to maintain your desired stock/fixed income ratio.

We did some adjustments earlier this year when I rolled my 401k into an IRA.

Just watched another good video by this guy comparing stock vrs fixed and inflation. Makes me think....hmmmm....

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Then there is this thought from another thread here:

One thing to keep in mind is that your asset allocation (AA), mix of stocks/bonds has negligible impact on your success rate for a broad range. Anywhere from 30/70 to 100/0 have success rates from 94% to 96% at a 4% WR. What will vary is that the terminal values (ending portfolio balance at the end of the time horizon) will average higher with higher stock allocations. So select an AA that allows you to sleep well at night.

 

[donheff]

After your previous description of this guy's 4% video, I have no interest in the rest. Your final comment on the Firecalc chart is more useful. Forget about withdrawing with the 4% rule. Nobody does that. Prepare for sequence of returns risk. Cash for several years expenses in the form of CDs, TIPs ladders, money market funds while the rates are decent, will allow you to select your AA as per your Firecalc comment, and stick with it through the scary years. If the scary years never end, we will all go down the tubes, including your Patrick Stewart look-alike CFA.

 

[MichaelB]

This guy just showed in my youtube feed yesterday. His videos are pretty short but I think he has some good thoughts and charts in them. Does he make a pretty good case for changes or just a slick sales pitch? We have always been buy and hold S&P or Total market funds, keep it simple. Now in retirement and with the upcoming changes in 2025 questioning if we should rethink our positions. Wondering what others more knowledgeable about investing might think about his recommendations for 2025.

Why don’t you give us a short summary of what his is recommending?

 

[rembrandt]

After your previous description of this guy's 4% video, I have no interest in the rest. Your final comment on the Firecalc chart is more useful. Forget about withdrawing with the 4% rule. Nobody does that. Prepare for sequence of returns risk. Cash for several years expenses in the form of CDs, TIPs ladders, money market funds while the rates are decent, will allow you to select your AA as per your Firecalc comment, and stick with it through the scary years. If the scary years never end, we will all go down the tubes, including your Patrick Stewart look-alike CFA.

Good call, number one.

 

[sengsational]

I don't usually pick stocks, but given regression to the mean, I'd pick P&G next year to do less worse than the broad market. But my money is not aligned with my mouth.

 

[FREE866]

Here's my take on the video:

He makes some salient points, but PE ratios are not predictive of where stocks will go, especially in the near term. They are one factor, I wish it were that simple!

His #'s are off too. The forward PE ( which is the one that matters) for the S and P is ~22 not 28.

I do agree with diversification within equities which is why I have ~30% of mine dedicated to small caps. They have def underperformed large caps, but still have done OK the last 8 years ( up 8% vs S and P return of 15%).

 

[Al18]

The current trailing PE ratio of the SP500 is 30.98 according to S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

 

[FREE866]

The current trailing PE ratio of the SP500 is 30.98 according to S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

That’s simply bad information.
2022 earnings were ~219
2023 earnings were ~ 222
2024 earnings will be -239
2025 estimate is ~270

With S and P at ~ 6100
Even trailing PE is at 25

Regardless, PEs don’t predict stock prices. Even Schiller has admitted as such

 

[OldShooter]

If he really could predict the future with the precision he pretends to, he would not be out hustling clicks on the internet. He would be lounging by the pool on his mega-yacht drinking from a glass garnished with an orchid.

 

[Diogenes]

The thesis of the video isn't new. For a long time now, it has been compelling to recommend value over growth, small-cap over large, ex-US over US, and non-tech over tech. The thesis is compelling in terms of valuation, and in terms of, well, how long can such current vigorous narrow trend persist? But it has been persisting, for years. And it may, for years to come.

In other words, I agree with the video conceptually. But I don't agree in terms of what actions to take.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Why don’t you give us a short summary of what his is recommending?

Hows this? FYI just learned how to do screenshots on my Chromebook..nice!

 

[FREE866]

Then there is this thought from another thread here:

One thing to keep in mind is that your asset allocation (AA), mix of stocks/bonds has negligible impact on your success rate for a broad range. Anywhere from 30/70 to 100/0 have success rates from 94% to 96% at a 4% WR. What will vary is that the terminal values (ending portfolio balance at the end of the time horizon) will average higher with higher stock allocations. So select an AA that allows you to sleep well at night.

Right. This is my justification for being all equity. It's really a mental thing, because the volatility is the emotional price you pay for having significantly larger growth of the portfolio. Using equity sales for your cash flow is also much more tax efficient.

 

[dobig]

Hows this? FYI just learned how to do screenshots on my Chromebook..nice!
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Considering how his investment philosophy closely aligns with my own I'm going to give him a thumbs up.