2025 Investment Performance Thread

Koolau said:
Still haven't looked. Not so much that I'm afraid to see the "damage." It's more like I don't plan to sell or shift anything at this time, so the % change is more academic than helpful.

I do NW calculations once a year and then more or less forget my totals until the next year or I look at a specific fund when I do RMDs. Otherwise, I'm just not all that interested, I guess.
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Have a fair amount of cash on the sidelines - may look to do some bottom fishing but not time yet, IMO
 
Koolau said:
Still haven't looked. Not so much that I'm afraid to see the "damage." It's more like I don't plan to sell or shift anything at this time, so the % change is more academic than helpful.

I do NW calculations once a year and then more or less forget my totals until the next year or I look at a specific fund when I do RMDs. Otherwise, I'm just not all that interested, I guess.
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You're no fun. Don't you know you should be reporting them here, maybe every day and obsessing on it? ;)
 
I haven't looked but I know there is sufficient evidence that it has lost 7didgits on paper.
I document month end so won't look now and have no plans on any change so just will gain tough.
 
I didn't add up yesterday's totals, but did add up Wednesday's. That was mainly because it was such a meteoric rise, I wanted to see what kind of gain I got, even if it's only on paper.
 
My bonds are getting hit a little bit which is really weird. It is that thing with the 10 year going whack. Not a large hit, but noticable.
 
Fermion said:
My bonds are getting hit a little bit which is really weird. It is that thing with the 10 year going whack. Not a large hit, but noticable.
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From what I read, there’s suddenly a lot of governments and others who uncomfortable holding US Treasuries, and dumping them. No big surprise there. The excess supply is tanking bond prices, which raises yields. I think the plan for yields was the opposite, assuming there was a plan.
 
Markola said:
From what I read, there’s suddenly a lot of governments and others who uncomfortable holding US Treasuries, and dumping them. No big surprise there. The excess supply is tanking bond prices, which raises yields. I think the plan for yields was the opposite, assuming there was a plan.
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Do we have a credible source and supporting data for Treasury dumping?
 
Markola said:
Somehow I doubt my sources will satisfy you but here’s one.

“U.S. government bonds underwent a big sell-off early Wednesday, signalling investors were dumping the usually safe assets as tariff turmoil continues to rock the world.”

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Right. The link doesn’t support that point at all.

It does say:

“Some are also pointing to China — which owns a massive amount of U.S. bonds — saying it's possible the country could have sold some of them in order to intentionally make things harder for the U.S. government, says Joseph Steinberg, an economics professor at the University of Toronto.

But without real-time data to see who is selling and buying bonds, it's unclear whether this is actually happening”

I think the linked article doesn’t support at all the comment that foreign governments are dumping or even considering dumping US Treasuries. Most importantly, it’s not in their best interest to do so.

China may be the exception but we don’t know, and really won’t until we have data to scrutinize, which may be months from now.
 
Are we going into high inflation and low growth period in the coming years? That’s exactly what happened in 1960s, and where the 4% SWR is located. Hope 4% is still hold this time. Otherwise everyone will have to redo the retirement finance calculation.
 
I found this part of the CBC article that Markola linked to be spot on. No selling here, I'm a hold-to-maturity guy.
In times of uncertainty, like when the stock market makes wild swings as it has been the past few days, investors usually reach for U.S. government bonds because they're safe. But today, investors were selling them as the U.S. continued to create unease with broad tariffs.

"The U.S. government is the source of instability … nobody trusts that the White House knows what it's doing," said Moshe Lander, a professor of economics at Concordia University in Montreal. "People are racing away from the source of instability."
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Markola said:
From what I read, there’s suddenly a lot of governments and others who uncomfortable holding US Treasuries, and dumping them. No big surprise there. The excess supply is tanking bond prices, which raises yields. I think the plan for yields was the opposite, assuming there was a plan.
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And yet the 10 year is yielding lower as I type this than it was at the beginning of 2025. Same for the 20 year, and 30 year....and 5 year and 7 year.
 
audreyh1 said:
I believe the 20 yr and 30 yr treasury rates are up slightly YTD.

The 10 year rate is down a bit.
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You are correct. What I should have stated was that all were higher early in January (not "the beginning of 2025").
Jan 13th rates (as visualized by me so who knows):
30-year: 4.9870%
20-year: 5.0660%
10-year: 4.8030%
7-year: 4.7190%
5-year: 4.6170%

My point remains - everywhere the financial media "experts" are talking about the world coming to an end because foreign governments are running from treasuries yet the actual rates don't show this. All they show was a very recent uptrend. Having said this, I have LONG been in the camp that the US reserve currency and $ dominance is under pressure. That's why I am 10% + in precious metals and related PM miners, and why for the most part my fixed investments are relatively short term (except for things like TIPS).

If one were wanting to watch things, I think a much better gauge of stress is to look at high-yield to treasury spreads. Yes, it is jumping (and my tiny short on high yields is doing better), longer term the jump is relatively modest.
Here's a link to the FRED chart on spread: ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread

And my $SJB which is a short on high yield (aka junk) debt: SJB

I'm posting these not to disagree with anyone (especially you), but rather as data points of interest to me and maybe others.
 
copyright1997reloaded said:
You are correct. What I should have stated was that all were higher early in January (not "the beginning of 2025").
Jan 13th rates (as visualized by me so who knows):
30-year: 4.9870%
20-year: 5.0660%
10-year: 4.8030%
7-year: 4.7190%
5-year: 4.6170%

My point remains - everywhere the financial media "experts" are talking about the world coming to an end because foreign governments are running from treasuries yet the actual rates don't show this. All they show was a very recent uptrend. Having said this, I have LONG been in the camp that the US reserve currency and $ dominance is under pressure. That's why I am 10% + in precious metals and related PM miners, and why for the most part my fixed investments are relatively short term (except for things like TIPS).

If one were wanting to watch things, I think a much better gauge of stress is to look at high-yield to treasury spreads. Yes, it is jumping (and my tiny short on high yields is doing better), longer term the jump is relatively modest.
Here's a link to the FRED chart on spread: ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread

And my $SJB which is a short on high yield (aka junk) debt: SJB

I'm posting these not to disagree with anyone (especially you), but rather as data points of interest to me and maybe others.
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There was definitely a scary reversal of treasuries during the recent strong market sell-off. Initially treasuries rallied strongly while equity markets tumbled. This was the usual flight to quality. Then starting 4/7 treasuries started falling too (rates rising) giving back their gains in 2 days while equities continued to sell off. This indicated some kind of credit markets problem. Made the administration back off some.

IMG_6688.jpegIMG_6687.jpeg
 
In an effort to get this thread somewhat sort of a little bit back on track, here are my mid-month data (minus a couple things what settle overnight - for those I am using yesterdays close):
MTD -3.2%
YTD -3.7%
Compared to all time high: -5.3%
YoY: +6.4% (4/20/2024 as I only track weekly)
Since the SPY is down 8.27% YTD and I am about 40% equities I'm tracking pretty close to over SPY performance.

Allocations (as of 4/13/25):
Equities 40.2% (but does not count Precious Metals miners or non-convertable Prefs)
Fixed 48.9% - Weighted Days to Maturity 448 days
Precious Metals/Miners 10.9%
 
Reading tea leaves, glancing at the crystal ball, and praying to the saints...
 
Be greedy when those are fearful, be fearful when those are greedy.

I don't know if it was Buffet or Munger who coined that.
 
Onda said:
Did you notice 10 year T-bill are at 18 year high? 🥂

When the stock market is crashing, it’s like the ground is falling out from under investors. Normally, in that chaos, people run to the safest haven they know: U.S. Treasuries. These bonds are supposed to be rock-solid—where you go to weather the storm. But when yields are rising during a crash, that means people aren’t running to safety—they’re fleeing even the safe stuff. They’re dumping Treasuries, which is like jumping off a lifeboat in the middle of a storm.

This signals something deeper—fear not just of a bad market, but of systemic cracks: runaway inflation, a government drowning in debt, or a loss of faith in the very foundation of the financial system. When both stocks and bonds fall together, it’s more than a correction—it’s a sign that trust is unraveling. And that’s when real danger begins. You had a chance to watch it today as well.
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Gold and BTC seems to be holding up. Perhaps a transfer of money to perceived safe havens?

Oh yeah, -8% YTD
 
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