2025 Investment Performance Thread

[Surewhitey]

NW YTD is +5.6%. Subtract income, closer to +1.5%. Good income qtr, for sure.

A couple of single stocks helped with the returns. T&EXC...

 

[AudiDudi]

5.5% YTD.

 

[Markola]

^^^ We have a winner for “Creepiest Avatar”.

 

[wingfooted]

Q1 2025 investment return, time weighted inclusive of dividends, interest and mark to market gains / losses. And exclusive of any withdrawals / additions during the period.

All stocks, slightly levered

Result -4.4%, matching the SP500 benchmark of -4.4% for the first quarter with significant volatility in my personal portfolio returns.

Holdings in chip stocks - NVDA, AMD, SMH down hard along with AMZN. Energy holdings outperformed - COP, OXY, FANG and HES.

And now I wait for tomorrow’s market reaction to a new tariff regime.

 

[audreyh1]

^^^ We have a winner for “Creepiest Emoji”.

Avatar? There are several creepy ones, but that’s definitely in the running!

 

[Markola]

Avatar? There are several creepy ones, but that’s definitely in the running!

You’re right! Corrected.

 

[pb4uski]

... The annoying thing is, I was planning on announcing my retirement at work tomorrow! (April 2). I'll admit I'm getting a bit nervous now, but I have a feeling it's more being nervous about going through with such a major decision, moreso than economic jitters. If anything, seeing it on a percentage basis like this, rather than noticing the dollar changes, has put me at ease.

If you have enough stable value investments like bonds to cover your first 10 years of withdrawals then IMO there is no need to fret.

 

[Koolau]

I hope I don't jinx us, but this is pretty tame (so far) in comparison to retiring just 2 years ahead of 2008. That was a bit scary. I had literally just moved 5000 miles in 2007 and started spending like a drunken retiree (rehabbing the place we just moved to), buying two cars, furniture and everything else to make a home in the Islands.

Let's all hope this is nothing like 2008.

 

[FREE866]

I was at the place you are now in 2016 when I retired. Markets were going down things uncertain, but I still went through with the plan of ER. It was a great time to ER looking back now. Times were interesting then also, but markets only had one way to go, and it was up and I did very well going out when things were down.

I recall 2016 being a good year no?
Summer 2016 was when I realized FIRE was possible. Pulled plug in January 2017. 2017 was such a great year, not only did market go up , but very little volatility. Got lucky in that way. And yes Andre1969 it's definitely about the percentages and not the dollar amount.

 

[HarveyS]

down 5.3% YTD 85 equity/10 bonds/5 cash

 

[Target2026]

YTD -6%

 

[Tacitus]

Great thread. I periodically review total performance/returns (even calculate after taxes) especially given the increasing portion of my portfolio dedicated to income. Then compare to the comparable control which for me is about 50% equity and 50% fixed/cash equivalents. Very helpful to humbly remind oneself how one is really doing vs. for example getting too enticed by high yield often at the expense of total performance/returns. Will check back and post numbers maybe quarterly or so.

The saying "it's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so" by Mark Twain, often comes to mind too. When someone is so sure or adamant about predicting financial results I tend to run in the other direction. Maybe just the contrarian in me. But I believe periodically objectively checking total performance/returns, some humility, and this tenet has greatly helped over the years.

 

[SnowballCamper]

-1.76% YTD, waiting for the next drop to up my stock allocation (again)

 

[SloHan]

For March and end of 1st quarter -4.46% YTD AA 85/15

 

[HighFlight]

Flesh wounds bleed too!

'Tis but a scratch! (with apologies to Monty Python)

 

[dobig]

6.45% Total accounts up 14.05% including contributions.

Was lucky I had very little in growth. Last 2 weeks have put everything extra in growth to start a position.

 

[sdawson]

+1.63%

But I am in a very conservative position at this time -- as I'm working out how to retire at the end of the year.

According to Fidelity analysis:

8.8% in Domestic Stock
5.4% in Foreign Stock
54.4% Bonds
And the rest is Short Term, Other, and Unknown.

That last category (for now) is a Stable Value fund, a 2 year CD Ladder, and then a large chunk in
FDRXX (Fidelity Govt Cash Reserves) which earns a bit, but not much.

As I work on how to bridge the gap between when I retire (will still be 62 at the end of the year) and when I plan on starting SS (age 67) -- that bucket of money FDRXX is there for that purpose. I was going to put that into a 5 year CD ladder at 4%, but my plan does not allow for CD's. So it's sitting there for now.

Once I feel comfortable with the plan, and have enough fixed income set aside to bridge the gap, and then cover my expenses when I hit 67, I will rebalance the remaining with a different asset allocation. But needed stability this year in case things went south. It's anyones guess what will happen this year.

 

[wyecrabber1]

Jan +0.3%
Feb -1.2%
Mar -5.2%
YTD -6.0%

correcting for RMD withdraws -3.5%
AA 80/10/10

 

[Andre1969]

I recall 2016 being a good year no?
Summer 2016 was when I realized FIRE was possible. Pulled plug in January 2017. 2017 was such a great year, not only did market go up , but very little volatility. Got lucky in that way. And yes Andre1969 it's definitely about the percentages and not the dollar amount.

I looked back on my records, and for 2016, I had a return of about 8.4%, so it wasn't a bad year overall. But, for me at least, most of my gains seemed to come during the second half of the year.

My portfolio performance went through a bit of a rough patch from around mid 2014 through mid 2016, basically a lot of ups and downs, but a mostly sideways trend overall. To put a dollar figure into it, at the end of June 2014, my assets were around $970K, but at the end of Jun 2016, I was around $1,070K. Once you factor in additional investments over that period, the rise wasn't much at all. I think there were also a couple of ~10% corrections during that period, too.

I think much of my aggravation with that particular period was that I was coming off of a bit of a euphoria, from 2012, 2013, and the first half of 2014. I had also popped the $700K barrier in 2012, the $800K in 2013, and finished out 2013 right at $900K. So the magical $1M barrier seemed SOOOO close.

 

[street]

2016 ended in a great year not disputing that. 2015 was shake at times and that is when I decided to ER. So, it was a mixed time for me to leave a job I loved. It is never easy and no matter when you ER you will leave money on the table.

 

[audreyh1]

Down 1.04% thru 3/31 ~50/50. As of yesterday I was only down 0.72%.

Very volatile these days.

 

[camfused]

Up 2.44% YTD for the first quarter. I got out of stocks on 20 January. So far, that was the right decision.

 

[FREE866]

I looked back on my records, and for 2016, I had a return of about 8.4%, so it wasn't a bad year overall. But, for me at least, most of my gains seemed to come during the second half of the year.

My portfolio performance went through a bit of a rough patch from around mid 2014 through mid 2016, basically a lot of ups and downs, but a mostly sideways trend overall. To put a dollar figure into it, at the end of June 2014, my assets were around $970K, but at the end of Jun 2016, I was around $1,070K. Once you factor in additional investments over that period, the rise wasn't much at all. I think there were also a couple of ~10% corrections during that period, too.

I think much of my aggravation with that particular period was that I was coming off of a bit of a euphoria, from 2012, 2013, and the first half of 2014. I had also popped the $700K barrier in 2012, the $800K in 2013, and finished out 2013 right at $900K. So the magical $1M barrier seemed SOOOO close.

Right....I kind of made a decision to FIRE in summer 2016 and then as the portfolio grew in 2nd half it increased my confidence to pull the plug in January 2017.

 

[VanWinkle]

Up 2.44% YTD for the first quarter. I got out of stocks on 20 January. So far, that was the right decision.

So when will you get back in? I'm -.30 with a 50/50 US equities and Intermediate US bonds

 

[camfused]

So when will you get back in? I'm -.30 with a 50/50 US equities and Intermediate US bonds

Somewhere below 5000. Worse case, I get back in where jumped out (at 6049), and I earned 4.4% while I was in cash.