It would be very interesting to see evidence to support this conclusion. It doesn’t reflect how insurance mrts work.
That's how it worked when I was evaluating insurance plans over 15-20 years. Understand this is the medical service provider pricing approach. Insurance has pricing as defined above as one input plus expected utilization, overhead and insurer profit. But since company demographics changed slowly, medical services pricing was the common and key input.
It would be explained this way, for example, with graphics: overall medical cost pricing ising 8%. Medicare and Medicaid were 25% of the market and those allowed increases were 2%. The remaining 75% of the market will bear an increase of 10% to cover the expected overall increase. (.75*.1 + 2%*.25= 8%). This is how private insurance pricing would rise at a rate above the average cost increase.
If there were just one plan for everyone this might be the case. There are hundreds of plans, though, and as attested to by posts in this thread, some of them are falling in cost or have zero premium. “Spreading the cost around” won’t work in a competitive environment. The additional user cost for the lower OOP is being paid for by those same users.
Yes some will be lower due to drugs covered and changes the subsidy from Medicare (of which there were some to keep costs from rising too much at uh this time. But analysis I am reading makes it clear the cap and other changes from IRA are driving higher premiums:
"According to KFF, the
estimated average enrollment-weighted monthly premium for Medicare Part D stand-alone drug plans is projected to be $48 in 2024, up 21% from 2023. There is considerable variation of premium growth across plans, with some well below the average 21% increase and others above it. The increase is driven by higher expected plan costs to provide the Part D benefit in 2024, including the new limit on enrollees’ out-of-pocket spending."
"The question now is whether the tradeoff involved of a $2,000 cap on spending and other limits in co-payments is worth an average increase in premiums of roughly $8 a month."
20% of adults over 65 forgo their prescriptions due to cost. The IRA’s $2,000 cap on annual out-of-pocket drug costs helps alleviate the issue for Medicare beneficiaries.
www.forbes.com
To your point, there are other plan design steps an insurer can make to mitigate higher costs, such as more mandated generics, requiring pre-approval, etc. But reducing utilization via pre-approval reduces the usefulness of the insurance. It is not pain free to the customer.