45- Can I retire in 2024?

[Koolau]

My biggest fears:
Leaving a good career that is stressful yet rewarding
health insurance during retirement for 20 years
Running out of money and wishing I would have just worked 1-2 more years as a high earner.

What am I missing? Thank you!

Only you can decide about your c@reer at this point.

ACA should (probably) cover your HI - if not, your stash should cover it.

As far as running out of money: As long as you have some back-ups built into your plan, I think you're golden. Backups would potentially include: Cutting back on spending like eating out or travel, ditching one car, one cell phone, or ditching the extra cable channels, etc. It's not like you're "on the edge." The only "issue" that would concern me would be your young age. You have a long time to live as a retired person. Enjoy it!

Check back often and keep us posted on your journey.

 

[pjigar]

Is your vacation cabin in the same school district as your high schooler is going to? Or would you wait until He/she graduates and heads off to college? I would not want to move my kiddo in their senior year of HS!

We moved to our second home for good after DD finished high school. As long as your expenses stay where they are today plus ACA premium, you look golden! Run firecalc like everyone said.

 

[AZsniper]

1 year update!
One of my favorite things about this forum is to see people post updates over the years to see how goals were met (usually far exceeded!) and how they are doing along the way.

1 year ago I had $1,076,000 investable assets and this year $1,364,000. And I even spent $$$ for a camper van this year! After selling my current home and moving to our vacation home (paid for) I will conservatively have an additional $600k. What a difference a year can make. I am truly blessed and can't believe that I have this savings. I have already passed all my FI goals, but as you all know, the goal post is ever moving.

My spending for 2023 was $106,500 and this year I am estimating it will be around the same.

My youngest is a senior in HS this year and and I am trying to figure out when the time is right to ER. I never thought it would be so hard to leave the comfort of a good but stressful job.

DW and I are going to sit down in January and try to make a plan. As of today, I am thinking of ER in July 2025 or January 2026.
Cheers!

 

[HawkeyeNFO]

Great update. Thanks and good luck in your decision-making.

 

[pacergal]

OP--
Thanks for the update.
Per your byline "already on my second OMY", you are still young, don't wait too long!
It's the old Money VS Time issue, you have to decide which is more important.
But I get it, I retired at 60 and still, I returned to work part time off and on for four years before I finally said enough!

 

[brett]

Huge difference, for me anyway, between can I retire and am I ready to retire.

I could have retired in my early/mid fifties. I did not

Sure, I could have done the OMY business. Or I could have said I loved my job. Which I did...but so what?

My real reason for waiting until 58/59 was that I was not ready for retirement.

No other reason....that was it. It was all down to me and was was going round and round in my noggin!

 

[Koolau]

Thanks for the update. I sound like you are moving the direction you have planned. Have you checked (or rechecked) FIRECalc to see what it says about your pending vs retirement income?

Best luck and do check back often.

 

[AZsniper]

Huge difference, for me anyway, between can I retire and am I ready to retire.

I could have retired in my early/mid fifties. I did not

Sure, I could have done the OMY business. Or I could have said I loved my job. Which I did...but so what?

My real reason for waiting until 58/59 was that I was not ready for retirement.

No other reason....that was it. It was all down to me and was was going round and round in my noggin!

Very true. Years ago, I told my self a date to be ready. Financially I was ready, but mentally I was not. You are absolutely correct about being READY to retire! It was not scary to me until I was on retirements doorstep.

 

[AZsniper]

Thanks for the update. I sound like you are moving the direction you have planned. Have you checked (or rechecked) FIRECalc to see what it says about your pending vs retirement income?

Best luck and do check back often.

So, according to Firecalc at 89% success rate, I can spend $155k per year for 40 years, which is far above what I have ever spent in one year in my life. That includes a 70k pension and SS at 68Me/67DW. I hope I am doing that correctly. I am using an investable amount of $2.2m.

 

[Koolau]

So, according to Firecalc at 89% success rate, I can spend $155k per year for 40 years, which is far above what I have ever spent in one year in my life. That includes a 70k pension and SS at 68Me/67DW. I hope I am doing that correctly. I am using an investable amount of $2.2m.

Sounds reasonable to me. Always nice to know you can spend more than you need to!

 

[RetiredHappy]

Have you gotten the close to exact numbers on SS benefits? Don't forget that once you stop working, the rest of the years is going to be 0 earnings and will drop the SS estimates.

 

[Fermion]

Have you gotten the close to exact numbers on SS benefits? Don't forget that once you stop working, the rest of the years is going to be 0 earnings and will drop the SS estimates.

Laughable really. If you consider the OPs high income, then the zeros will mean something like missing out on a couple hundred dollars a month. A good exchange for not contributing 10 to 20 years more into the system considering he will have over $12,000 a month to spend.

 

[RetiredHappy]

Laughable really. If you consider the OPs high income, then the zeros will mean something like missing out on a couple hundred dollars a month. A good exchange for not contributing 10 to 20 years more into the system considering he will have over $12,000 a month to spend.

Laughable? Really?

I am not even suggesting that he continues to work, but to get more accurate numbers.

 

[Fermion]

Laughable? Really?

I am not even suggesting that he continues to work, but to get more accurate numbers.

Yeah, the SS bend points are pretty laughable for people who had a couple decades of high earnings. It makes the difference between retiring at 45 vs 60 just a few extra hundred a month considering you would have dumped two hundred thousand more into the system.

Even $500 more a month would be only 4% of his monthly SWR.

 

[AZsniper]

I had a pretty modest income most of my years of earnings, until some promotions about the last 5 years (and lots of overtime). If I have zero reported income from now on, (which is 8 or so years of ZERO income and includes my teenage income of a few thousand per year) my SS is $3025 per month. The spousal benefit will be by far the best for my wife. So we would be around $4500 per month

I guess this is one dilemma for me on this topic. I have never made high income until recently and feel like I just stay longer because of that alone!

 

[Koolau]

I had a pretty modest income most of my years of earnings, until some promotions about the last 5 years (and lots of overtime). If I have zero reported income from now on, (which is 8 or so years of ZERO income and includes my teenage income of a few thousand per year) my SS is $3025 per month. The spousal benefit will be by far the best for my wife. So we would be around $4500 per month

I guess this is one dilemma for me on this topic. I have never made high income until recently and feel like I just stay longer because of that alone!

Completely understandable. I hated to leave my pretty decent salary when I decided to FIRE. If I'd been okay with taking their money and just taking it easy, I'd probably have stayed for a year or two, hoping for a package (that actually came 18 months later.) BUT I just couldn't do it. If they're paying me, I'm gonna do my best - even if I hate the assignment. SO, I FIRE'd and I feel good about it. You will too!

 

[CaliKid]

I would probably look at pension options. So, for example, if you work 5 more years would your pension be a lot more? You'd still be young but would have more cushion built in.

Also, the part time jobs available to you are endless. I am in Vegas and know of retired LEO that work in casino surveillance and others that work security at the arenas/stadium. Make a few bucks but, more importantly get out of the house and talk to people.

 

[Fermion]

I had a pretty modest income most of my years of earnings, until some promotions about the last 5 years (and lots of overtime). If I have zero reported income from now on, (which is 8 or so years of ZERO income and includes my teenage income of a few thousand per year) my SS is $3025 per month. The spousal benefit will be by far the best for my wife. So we would be around $4500 per month

I guess this is one dilemma for me on this topic. I have never made high income until recently and feel like I just stay longer because of that alone!

Ah, I just assumed you were a high earner because of the $1.5 million dollars of homes you have at age 44 along with the other nicely funded retirement accounts. Hard to achieve on less than near max SS income tax levels?

 

[AZsniper]

Ah, I just assumed you were a high earner because of the $1.5 million dollars of homes you have at age 44 along with the other nicely funded retirement accounts. Hard to achieve on less than near max SS income tax levels?

I would say that frugality and side hustles really moved the needle for me. I restored several classic international scouts and sold them for a good mark up over the past few years, did a few property flips and have owned my current home for 24 years, and our vacation home was purchased as a major fixer upper before property really went up fast. So I gained a lot of NW from those moves. I never carried any debt other than a mortgage, that was also helpful for being able to save. I steadily contributed to my 457 along the way also. No question, I had some good luck, but a lot of labor on my end too...

 

[AZsniper]

I would probably look at pension options. So, for example, if you work 5 more years would your pension be a lot more? You'd still be young but would have more cushion built in.

Also, the part time jobs available to you are endless. I am in Vegas and know of retired LEO that work in casino surveillance and others that work security at the arenas/stadium. Make a few bucks but, more importantly get out of the house and talk to people.

Great question about the pension. I have already locked that in a few years ago. Our state has a deferred retirement program (DROP) which means I have to retire in Jan 2028 with no exceptions.

That's a good idea about the retired LE jobs, I do see a lot of retiree's go and do that.

 

[pjigar]

So, according to Firecalc at 89% success rate, I can spend $155k per year for 40 years, which is far above what I have ever spent in one year in my life. That includes a 70k pension and SS at 68Me/67DW. I hope I am doing that correctly. I am using an investable amount of $2.2m.

I prefer to run FireCalc using shorter periods (20-30 years) with ending balance to be some large amount (25%-50% of starting balance). This allows you to test more "periods".

 

[AZsniper]

I prefer to run FireCalc using shorter periods (20-30 years) with ending balance to be some large amount (25%-50% of starting balance). This allows you to test more "periods".

That's a really good idea. For me, I might break it up to pre-SS and post- SS. Age 46-68 is the first phase. After that I will have pension + SS and will likely need to draw way less from savings.

 

[kingfisher]

You are in great shape, 120k spending can definitely be supported under normal market conditions, and given you have 70k/year protected income, even if a black swan event were to happen and the market completely crashes, you would still be okay.

 

[Koolau]

I would say that frugality and side hustles really moved the needle for me. I restored several classic international scouts and sold them for a good mark up over the past few years, did a few property flips and have owned my current home for 24 years, and our vacation home was purchased as a major fixer upper before property really went up fast. So I gained a lot of NW from those moves. I never carried any debt other than a mortgage, that was also helpful for being able to save. I steadily contributed to my 457 along the way also. No question, I had some good luck, but a lot of labor on my end too...

Will you plan to continue some of your side hustles "for fun" when you retire? That could be your "back up" until you prove to yourself that you have plenty to get by on in retirement.

Have you researched the medical insurance aspect thoroughly? THAT one aspect is the single biggest "fear" I had when I thought about retirement. I was so blessed that my Megacorp supplemented my health insurance (and still does somewhat now that I'm on MC.) Folks here seem to believe that getting ACA is easy enough. I never had that option (nor need for it) so I can't comment on it.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

I prefer to run FireCalc using shorter periods (20-30 years) with ending balance to be some large amount (25%-50% of starting balance). This allows you to test more "periods".

Pre-ER, I ran 25-30 year and then used the lowest final value as the starting point for the next 25 year run. Pretty powerful stress test as you're playing with back to back worst case scenarios factored in. Kind of brutal but unlikely.