Sorry if I'm missing this basic question in the search. Not seeing anything about this specifically.
When I apply for an ACA subsidy during fall open enrollment, is there a way to estimate my following year's mutual fund capital gains distributions on an active fund?
My annual December payouts have averaged in the $10K-$15K range, except last year I got a surprise of nearly $30K. In future years, this could mean the difference between qualifying for ACA vs. expanded Medicaid. I don't want to give a wrong estimate and end up on the wrong plan for the following year. I'm OK with being on either plan. I just want it to match my actual income.
I know I can report changes after enrollment, but I'd rather get it right the first time. For one thing, if I end up on Medicaid again next January, as I did this year, based on mutual fund income from previous yearly averages, it can be hard/impossible to get off because I'm locked in for the year (at least that's how my state does it).
Come this fall, if I estimate based on last year's unexpectedly large distro and the payout comes in much smaller (closer to the typical $10K-$15K range), then I'd end up on ACA when I should/could have qualified for expanded Medicaid again. Vice versa if I estimate too low.
Examples:
Based on capital gains distributions in previous years, say I estimate that my investment income for 2022 will be $15K-$20K. This puts me in Medicaid range. Come the end of 2022, say I get another unexpected $30K distro. Oops, I should have been on ACA after all, but now it's too late to report a change.
Then, in making an estimate for the following year, 2023, say I use the unexpected $30K payout as a best guess. But then come December 2023, say I get a more typical $15K. Oops, I should/could have been on Medicaid, but now it's too late to report a change.
This could go on for years if one is in a lean FIRE with an annual investment income straddling the ACA-Medicaid line. I'm familiar with Roth conversions for staying in ACA range, but quite frankly, expanded Medicaid here is better than a Bronze HD plan and I'd rather have it in years when I legitimately qualify.
Anyone else navigating this?
When I apply for an ACA subsidy during fall open enrollment, is there a way to estimate my following year's mutual fund capital gains distributions on an active fund?
My annual December payouts have averaged in the $10K-$15K range, except last year I got a surprise of nearly $30K. In future years, this could mean the difference between qualifying for ACA vs. expanded Medicaid. I don't want to give a wrong estimate and end up on the wrong plan for the following year. I'm OK with being on either plan. I just want it to match my actual income.
I know I can report changes after enrollment, but I'd rather get it right the first time. For one thing, if I end up on Medicaid again next January, as I did this year, based on mutual fund income from previous yearly averages, it can be hard/impossible to get off because I'm locked in for the year (at least that's how my state does it).
Come this fall, if I estimate based on last year's unexpectedly large distro and the payout comes in much smaller (closer to the typical $10K-$15K range), then I'd end up on ACA when I should/could have qualified for expanded Medicaid again. Vice versa if I estimate too low.
Examples:
Based on capital gains distributions in previous years, say I estimate that my investment income for 2022 will be $15K-$20K. This puts me in Medicaid range. Come the end of 2022, say I get another unexpected $30K distro. Oops, I should have been on ACA after all, but now it's too late to report a change.
Then, in making an estimate for the following year, 2023, say I use the unexpected $30K payout as a best guess. But then come December 2023, say I get a more typical $15K. Oops, I should/could have been on Medicaid, but now it's too late to report a change.
This could go on for years if one is in a lean FIRE with an annual investment income straddling the ACA-Medicaid line. I'm familiar with Roth conversions for staying in ACA range, but quite frankly, expanded Medicaid here is better than a Bronze HD plan and I'd rather have it in years when I legitimately qualify.
Anyone else navigating this?