Accidentally paid 10x ES taxes this quarter

Mailed our 1040-ES June 3rd. As of today it didn’t hit the bank. May have been lost, who knows. Used Direct Pay today for the same amount. If the ES ever gets there it can be used for third qtr.
Why not? Doesn't your alternative just mean you are handing the (same amount of ) money over early?
No, not at all. I’ve had the occasional year when I would have paid maybe 2x in estimated taxes using the 110% method and gotten a massive refund. I prefer to avoid refunds especially large ones.
I cordially disagree.

I have a lot of post-retirement income from oil & gas royalties, and it varies by 40-60% of the total every year. I cannot ever predict what the next year will bring, so I elect to hit 110% safe harbor. That definitely means I end up paying a bunch extra at regular intervals, but I would otherwise be eyeballing things every quarter and actively worrying about it.

It does mean I have a lot more cash than I otherwise would. My Vanguard rep keeps gently asking me about it, and I have to explain that my asset allocation isn't really what she's seeing, since I have to hold a bunch of cash ready to go for the quarterly estimated checks.

I will readily admit I could optimize by calculating and filing quarterly, but I would worry about it, and that would suck.
In this case I use the Annualized Income method for paying estimated taxes. In the 2000s and 2010s I had several years where I used this method to avoid getting a huge refund and after the first year I had the spreadsheets to support it, so follow on years and maintaining the spreadsheets wasn’t much extra work. Quicken tracks my income precisely so I know exactly what it is each tax quarter by type. I revert to the 110% safe harbor when possible and these years I generally use it as my income variation is low.

I still use the spreadsheets to calculate my Q4/full year tax liability so that I don’t overpay estimated taxes for Q4 in Jan. I have to do this anyway to evaluate my IRMAA situation in Dec so I can manage taxable income if possible. Avoiding a higher IRMAA threshold or filling up the existing one is worth the extra work for me.
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The whole thing of giving the gub'ment "free money" is WAY over exaggerated. Let's say you have a refund of $10,000. That means ON AVERAGE you had $5,000 sitting for the year. @ 5% that is $250 in "lost income".
If you are dealing with THAT kind of income tax balances $250 is chump change. (B-T-W, for a more modest $1,000 refund it comes to 25 bucks. 1/2 a tank of gas. Shrug.
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