AI and the future

[GenXguy]

I've heard McDonalds has a fully automated kitchen already designed and ready to go. Not sure if it's just robotics or AI powered. I think they are just waiting for the economics to be right before flipping the switch (ie when minimum wage gets too high).

In many places, including my state, it's already too high.

 

[Gumby]

I've heard McDonalds has a fully automated kitchen already designed and ready to go. Not sure if it's just robotics or AI powered. I think they are just waiting for the economics to be right before flipping the switch (ie when minimum wage gets too high).

 

[disneysteve]

I've heard McDonalds has a fully automated kitchen already designed and ready to go. Not sure if it's just robotics or AI powered. I think they are just waiting for the economics to be right before flipping the switch (ie when minimum wage gets too high).

It's not just a minimum wage issue. It's also a labor shortage issue. Lots of employers are having trouble finding workers. That's one downside of years of record low unemployment. McDonald's has already implemented kiosk ordering in many locations so that they don't need multiple people staffing registers like they used to have. Some fast food restaurants, like Chipotle and Dunkin, even have "digital only" locations where you order on the app and just go to a window to pickup your order. You can't walk in off the street and order with a person.

 

[sengsational]

Absolutely agree. Airfield-to-airfield and then driving off to wherever rather than renting a car, taxi or Uber is a possibility but I doubt I'll live to see that, in any great numbers anyway.

We won't each buy a flying car. We'll open UberAir on our phone and a VTOL vehicle will land at the closest approved spot. We'll walk there, get in, and be delivered to the closest approved spot near our destination. No airfields, no pilots. This won't work for sporting events and things like that. It also won't work for long distance transport, at least until they get energy density problems solved. But there's a market for it. Commuters might benefit from owning a vehicle, but unless there's an easy way to park it, all day, that doesn't cost much, even commuters might just pay by the trip.

 

[Sunset]

......... AI is a threat not only to the human way of life but also to species survival. I don't see that threat as imminent, but it seems inevitable with time unless humans actively stop it.

For me, the good news is I might be at the end of my life by the time (hopefully) that AI destroys human life.
I don't think we can stop AI development, just like we can't stop atomic bomb development, some nation will always want the advantage over others.

I see the application of AI for war as obvious and incredibly attractive for many nations. Eventually combined with atomic weapons.... Funny how Hollywood already thought of the combination years ago in War Games.

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

I expect AI to be a net gain for humanity if we don't kill ourselves with it .. same with nuclear science.... so far we've managed not to destroy ourselves but I suspect it will eventually happen though madness or accident. I can't do anything about either so I'll focus on the mostly good and if/when a catastrophe happens during my life I'll hopefully go out at ground zero without ever suffering.

 

[jim584672]

AI will figure out how to manipulate humans for its ends. Then with 3D printing it will create an Android army to dominate the world, we are so screwed. LOL

 

[GrayHare]

Caution: uplifting thoughts do not follow. I figure the more ways we can eliminate everyone, the more likely it will happen. I believe more dangerous than AI is another tech, CRISPR because it can make new life forms. The 20th century might be the optimal time to have been born, late enough to enjoy the cush that advances supply, early enough to not be around for what seems like eventual tech disaster. Game Theory suggests it can't be avoided. This may be the solution to the Fermi Paradox.

 

[rembrandt]

DeepSeek shocks AI world with 'cheap' Chinese chatbot. Looks like there will be a tech selloff. AI bubble may be popping.

 

[JoeWras]

Broad tech selloff today. Hold on to your hats. NVDA down 15%.

As I write this, Dow is basically even, and NASDAQ is down 3%, S&P down 2%.

This is long overdue, IMHO. The AI hype was incredible. This is not the end of the world for most of us who are diversified.

My look into AI started in the early 80s. It was never my focus as a software engineer. It was a problem for 30 some years... hard to make it reality. Then the hype took off. Whatever.

AI is incredibly important, but it seems like too much marketing entered the fray over the last 5 years.

I would not abandon the whole AI thing. Just use caution, and keep a good portion of your portfolio diversified.

 

[surprising]

Broad tech selloff today. Hold on to your hats. NVDA down 15%.

As I write this, Dow is basically even, and NASDAQ is down 3%, S&P down 2%.

This is long overdue, IMHO. The AI hype was incredible. This is not the end of the world for most of us who are diversified.

My look into AI started in the early 80s. It was never my focus as a software engineer. It was a problem for 30 some years... hard to make it reality. Then the hype took off. Whatever.

AI is incredibly important, but it seems like too much marketing entered the fray over the last 5 years.

I would not abandon the whole AI thing. Just use caution, and keep a good portion of your portfolio diversified.

Time to buy calls on NVDA, ARM, TSM!

 

[rembrandt]

So far Nvidia lost more than $500 Billion in market value. Wow!

 

[aja8888]

I sure hope the AI stuff fixes my credit card debt, finds my lost college class ring and fixes my arthritis. The rest of my shortcomings? Well, there are pills for them.

 

[Qs Laptop]

I'm invested in some AI "picks and shovel" companies, like ANET, ALAB, and VST. I've also got some small positions in AMD and Qualcomm stock. Also FSELX, Fidelity's semiconductor sector fund. It's not a good day for me in the market.

The Chinese are claiming they can match the abilities of chat bots like Chatgpt and Google Gemini while only using about 20% of the high powered computer chips needed. If true, this would be a big blow to US based chip making companies like Nvidia, AMD, Micron, as well as companies like Google, Meta, etc. It's unclear whether or not the Chinese are using Nvidia chips to power their DeepSeek AI system as they are not supposed to have access to them.

The irony is that when technology products get cheaper, like DeepSeek claims to be, usage becomes more widespread. Thus, it's possible that AI will become more ubiquitous and faster, rather than any AI bubble popping.

It remains to be seen if this is truly a breakthrough or if the Chinese are doing it with smoke and mirrors.

 

[ransil]

Broad tech selloff today. Hold on to your hats. NVDA down 15%.

As I write this, Dow is basically even, and NASDAQ is down 3%, S&P down 2%.

This is long overdue, IMHO. The AI hype was incredible. This is not the end of the world for most of us who are diversified.

My look into AI started in the early 80s. It was never my focus as a software engineer. It was a problem for 30 some years... hard to make it reality. Then the hype took off. Whatever.

AI is incredibly important, but it seems like too much marketing entered the fray over the last 5 years.

I would not abandon the whole AI thing. Just use caution, and keep a good portion of your portfolio diversified.

hype was more like the last 5 months its the new buzzword in everything

 

[TOOLMAN]

Back in the 80's I saw my first robot fight. They were simple pick and place robotic arms. The problem was they placed them too close together and when they both went for a part at the same time they locked arms. One ripped off the arm of the other. It was funny but no real harm was done to humans.

Now most factory robots are in cages, or if not in a cage will shut down if a human gets in the way.
More robots; means more robot wars and people will need to get out of their way.

 

[SnowballCamper]

I'm the skeptic here I guess. AI can barely drive cars after decades of development. It doesn't do my grocery shopping and food prep for me. It doesn't clean my house. It doesn't do yard work. It can't fix my car. While it can write a nice summary based on human created data and knowledge, is it generating knowledge anywhere that has been verified by humans? Not that I've seen. I suppose it does a decent job of generating abstract art. It does a great job narrating spurious correlations, see Spurious Correlations

So far I'd say it's more entertainment than anything else. I do hope it improves, but it is a really difficult problem, and I'm not sure neural networks in modern computers will be where the big breakthroughs come. More likely with quantum computing IMHO.

 

[momoney]

Broad tech selloff today. Hold on to your hats. NVDA down 15%.

As I write this, Dow is basically even, and NASDAQ is down 3%, S&P down 2%.

This is long overdue, IMHO. The AI hype was incredible. This is not the end of the world for most of us who are diversified.

My look into AI started in the early 80s. It was never my focus as a software engineer. It was a problem for 30 some years... hard to make it reality. Then the hype took off. Whatever.

AI is incredibly important, but it seems like too much marketing entered the fray over the last 5 years.

I would not abandon the whole AI thing. Just use caution, and keep a good portion of your portfolio diversified.

AI is quite impressive for coding. Tasks that would have taken me days can be done in hours with the help of a chatbot. Once it can start taking on larger codebases it will be able to put together a full application by itself. It's not all hype. People are getting real work done with it.

 

[tutan]

I'm the skeptic here I guess. AI can barely drive cars after decades of development. It doesn't do my grocery shopping and food prep for me. It doesn't clean my house. It doesn't do yard work. It can't fix my car. While it can write a nice summary based on human created data and knowledge, is it generating knowledge anywhere that has been verified by humans? Not that I've seen. I suppose it does a decent job of generating abstract art. It does a great job narrating spurious correlations, see Spurious Correlations

So far I'd say it's more entertainment than anything else. I do hope it improves, but it is a really difficult problem, and I'm not sure neural networks in modern computers will be where the big breakthroughs come. More likely with quantum computing IMHO.

I believe you want robotics plus AI that can be battery powered. Not quite there yet.

 

[JoeWras]

I'm the skeptic here I guess. AI can barely drive cars after decades of development.

I think this is the best sign post. Self driving cars. 7 or 8 years ago the media and stock market was buzzing over SDC everywhere, for everyone, right around the corner -- because a bunch of marketing people said it was so. They were flat out wrong. We had some spirited discussions here, all of which got shut down because the discussions became too intense and some grenades were being tossed around.

Driving is incredibly difficult. Computers will do more than the geo-fenced and sanitized areas they do today. But it will take some time.

AI is quite impressive for coding. Tasks that would have taken me days can be done in hours with the help of a chatbot. Once it can start taking on larger codebases it will be able to put together a full application by itself. It's not all hype. People are getting real work done with it.

I'd love to stick up for my profession of software engineering, saying only humans can do it. But the simple fact of the matter is that AI is perfect for it. Tell an AI to solve a problem using Python, and it will know every trick in the Python book. It will know all the grammar. It will comment the code. It won't make dumb pointer mistakes, and so on.

AI is full of hype, but you are correct, it is not all hype. There are some areas where it is under-hyped.

 

[momoney]

So far Nvidia lost more than $500 Billion in market value. Wow!

And then in the next few days the hype machine will put out another counter press release with X company buying XX more Nvidia chips....

 

[momoney]

AI is full of hype, but you are correct, it is not all hype. There are some areas where it is under-hyped.

The programmer AI development tools are not even fully integrated into a developers toolchain. There is still lots of room for improvement.

 

[JoeWras]

The programmer AI development tools are not even fully integrated into a developers toolchain. There is still lots of room for improvement.

Yep. IBM has a series of commercials where they argue they are far along. The theme is your young developers can drink more Red Bulls while Watson programming generates the code.

 

[tulak]

AI is a major productivity enhancer. For technical projects, I’ve been able to build a deploy applications in an evening, using completely unfamiliar technologies, with only a knowledge of tech. This would have taken me much longer in the past, easily a week, if not more.

And for self-driving cars, take a Waymo if you ever get a chance. I did last year and was surprised at how well it worked.

All of this takes time, but it’s happening.

Same with any major technology. Heck, we’ve only had smartphones since 2007 and it took awhile before they gained mass acceptance. Now most of us can’t live without one. Same with computers, etc.

 

[Masquernom]

My nontechnical friends are scared of AI. They read the hype that it will take over the world. They're scared, but can't tell me exactly what they're scared that AI will do. Just that it's dangerous. Let's say you spend a billion dollars and build a robot that's smarter than a human. What will you do with it? It cost a billion dollars. You going to use it to offer haircuts? Repair clogged drains? For a robot to be useful, it has to work cheaper than a human. I spent many years automating processes. I never actually reduced the head count in the factory. The operators jobs just got easier and the processes ran better.

I can maybe see AI replacing some jobs in the future. Something like accounts receivable where I assume you're just matching documents. Taking drive thru orders. Jobs where there is an economic payback by replacing a person. The old joke used to be that the factory of the future would only have one employee and a dog. The employee would be there to feed the dog. The dog is there to make sure the employee doesn't touch anything. I can design that factory today. Nobody would finance it. The cost to automate to the level that no people are required is not economical.

AI will probably become a useful tool eventually. Desktop computers were a useful tool, but Xerox figured out the "paperless office" of the future wasn't really going to happen. Of course, they gave away their tech to Apple for free, but that's another story.

AI only takes over the world in the movies.