I did not read all 9 pages (so far) of this thread, but from what I did read, these are my observations as a relatively newly retired at age 60 guy who retired with about double what the OP has:
1. I don't see how 1.7 or 1.8 million gets you from 52 to end-of-life. That's a really long time horizon.
2. Related to point #1, I believe that you are relying way too heavily on monte carlo simulations specially and on Boldin generally. Do yourself some favor and google search "weaknesses of monte carlo simulations". You, and the forum members, do not have to agree with what you will find, but you are going to be retired for DECADES, so at least bother yourself to take a little time and read about those weaknesses.
3. Related to point #2, I believe that using retirement financial forecasting software such as Boldin is entirely foolish, and while you and the forum members might not agree, do yourself a favor and at least think about this for a moment: Those programs are making very precise calculations sequentially for each successive year based on the results of the previous year. But the inputs in terms of expected inflation, stock returns, bond investment results, taxes, spending needs, etc are ALL GUESSES and beyond the first few years of your planned retirement they are NOT educated guesses, they are wild guesses. You are being given precisely calculated results from imprecise inputs. If someone is 52 and has $750,000, those kind of programs would probably be correct in predicting failure for money lasting through retirement. Likewise, if someone is 52 and has $6,500,000, those programs would probably be correct in predicting success in not outliving money in retirement. But when someone is somewhere between "obviously not enough money" and "obviously plenty of money" it is really hazardous to use those programs to determine that you have enough money. Firecalc, or Fi Calc, or c FIRE sim would be much more useful. And, please do some reading about the weakness of monte carlo sims.
4. I retired in June. In the month leading up to retirement, the roof over part of the house began leaking water into the foyer, destroying the dry wall and ceiling. Multiple roofers who came to give estimates told me that the slate roof over that part of the house was at end of life and the whole roof needs to be replaced. The few who said they would be willing to try fixing the leak without roof replacement insisted that they would give no guarantee because they could not be sure which slate tiles were the culprit and anyway, the roof is in such poor shape that an adjacent area could leak the next day and they have no way to predict or prevent that. Oh, by the way, the "repairs" were going to be $4,500 to $6,500. We opted for replacement with architectural asphalt shingles, for $14,000. I did not even get estimates to fix the walls and the ceiling because we can do that ourselves, I think, but the materials will cost money.
While that was happening, we found that the gutter going across front of a different part of the roof was not draining at all, and water pouring over it like a waterfall and flooding the ground in front of the house. Replacement was $1,000.
At the same time, we found that cracks in the basement CMU wall that had been too thin to care about were widening. The structural engineer that everyone recommended was $900 to tell us that we need to monitor the cracks for anywhere from a few months to a year, and if they are further widening we need a foundation wall repair company (estimates for their work would be anywhere from $15,000 to $65,000).
And, the air handler in the attic has been rusting from condensation, and when it rusts through beyond the small holes in it now, water will accumulate in the overflow pan and trigger the shut off valve necessitating replacement of the air handler or we have to go to the attic 1-2 times everyday to aspirate the water out of the overflow pan. ALL of that was in the month leading up to my retirement with "enough money". I did not know about any of those things being a problem before giving my notice that I would retire, and really, not known before May/June 2025. Who knows what the rest of this year will bring for me in terms of unexpected expenses; and what about next year, and the year after that, etc? Educated guesses and wild guesses when setting up Boldin will not help with that wildly unexpected but distorted cash flow issue. Bottom line, you will need more money than you think you will need.
5. Lastly, in reference to point #1, $1.7 million seems like not enough money to last from age 52 to end-of-life.
earlyretirementnow.com
