Another "comp" came on the market and............

[CO-guy]

We live in a small town in a VHCOL resort area where home values have skyrocketed in the time we've been here. Our property has some qualities such as zoning and an ADU that make finding a comparable challenging, but some do occasionally come on the market. Last year the closest thing to an exact comparable sold for a little over $2M, which led us to 're-calibrate' our FIRE future.

So, as the title says, another "comp" came on the market and........... this property is simply the ADU out back with a double-wide modular home on a slab out front. However, it's zoned R-3 like our own property, though it's a smaller lot. The listing even mentions living in the ADU while building a new home or investment property in front and the listing price is $1.2M.

It's amazing to learn that just our garage is now worth 4x what we paid for our home

 

[COcheesehead]

We live in a small town in a VHCOL resort area where home values have skyrocketed in the time we've been here. Our property has some qualities such as zoning and an ADU that make finding a comparable challenging, but some do occasionally come on the market. Last year the closest thing to an exact comparable sold for a little over $2M, which led us to 're-calibrate' our FIRE future.

So, as the title says, another "comp" came on the market and........... this property is simply the ADU out back with a double-wide modular home on a slab out front. However, it's zoned R-3 like our own property, though it's a smaller lot. The listing even mentions living in the ADU while building a new home or investment property in front and the listing price is $1.2M.

It's amazing to learn that just our garage is now worth 4x what we paid for our home

Ride that Colorado market wave. We’ve seen an over 450% equity increase in value from our first home in CO 25 years ago.
I don’t look at a house as an investment, but it is a source of value.

 

[folivier]

I'm hoping that wave continues down south a bit to Cimarron. We plan to list our cabin next month. Arrowhead has always been a great bargain for Colorado mountain cabins. Real estate just hasn't kept up here with other areas of CO.

 

[COcheesehead]

I'm hoping that wave continues down south a bit to Cimarron. We plan to list our cabin next month. Arrowhead has always been a great bargain for Colorado mountain cabins. Real estate just hasn't kept up here with other areas of CO.

I like that area. Classic Colorado. Very rural, but close to some spectacular stuff. We do the Owl Creek Silver Jack loop in Fall.

 

[finnski1]

Here in NH, my house seemed to barely move in the last 25 years or more. It pretty much might have gained 1 or 2 % per year. Then Covid hit and the work from home mania caused the local property market to explode. My house value has more than doubled in the last 4 years or so. It's nice but I'm not going anywhere.

 

[finnski1]

I like that area. Classic Colorado. Very rural, but close to some spectacular stuff. We do the Owl Creek Silver Jack loop in Fall.

View attachment 63539

Beautiful. What are you guys doing up at 5:30 out there?

 

[bjl584]

I bought my home 11 years ago. Fairly rural but close to the county line. The adjacent county is a desirable area with large school districts and lots of housing plans and expensive homes. My house has tripled in value since I purchased it, many of the gains coming since Covid.

 

[COcheesehead]

Beautiful. What are you guys doing up at 5:30 out there?

DW’s last day of teaching. She is an adjunct professor of photography at the local University and today is finals day. After this, we’re all are on summer vacation.

 

[CO-guy]

Beautiful. What are you guys doing up at 5:30 out there?

We have 2 cattle dogs. They're up at dawn.

 

[CO-guy]

Ride that Colorado market wave. We’ve seen an over 450% equity increase in value from our first home in CO 25 years ago.
I don’t look at a house as an investment, but it is a source of value.

That's awesome! We're about the same. We purchased almost at the bottom of the market after the 2008 financial crisis. We refinanced after about 10 years and the home appraised for basically the amount we paid. By 2021 were were getting unsolicited all-cash offers for over a million and prices have doubled again since then.

 

[Koolau]

Makes you wonder: Who can afford to buy such homes?

 

[COcheesehead]

Makes you wonder: Who can afford to buy such homes?

People in the market who rode it up.
Lot of trade up buyers. We were one of them for years.

 

[flyoverstate]

People in the market who rode it up.
Lot of trade up buyers. We were one of them for years.

Another Coloradan here who has benefited greatly from the massive run up in home values since about 1996. A few bumps in that time, but mostly up. In the 80’s when we moved to CO, it was less expensive than most other desirable places in the US, now it is pretty unobtainable for many people moving from elsewhere. That is why most of the influx in homebuyers ( which has slowed WAY down), comes from CA/WA/TX/NY. There are still a lot of young people from the midwest who move to CO, but they are primarily renting. In western CO, there are a lot of buyers trading in their Front Range houses or buying second homes.

If we had stayed in the Midwest after college instead of leaving for Colorado, our financial picture today would likely be quite different.

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than to be good. LMAO.

BTW, as far as more recent property appreciation, most of Utah has far exceeded Colorado. We considered moving to Utah around 2012. Property values there since that time have gone nuts.

 

[Pointby2]

My DSister is trying with no luck to sell her $350K home in Colorado Springs. Too much inventory there is making it a buyer's market.

 

[G-Money]

Also in a VHCOL and our property has ridden the wave as well.

We could just about scrap our 5 year FIRE plan if we sold today and took the cash and moved somewhere LCOL.

But then we'd be somewhere LCOL, not that that's "bad" per se, but in the theme of being in a VHCOL area because of what it provides including opportunity, we'd lose most of that AND be far away from family.

 

[COcheesehead]

Another Coloradan here who has benefited greatly from the massive run up in home values since about 1996. A few bumps in that time, but mostly up. In the 80’s when we moved to CO, it was less expensive than most other desirable places in the US, now it is pretty unobtainable for many people moving from elsewhere. That is why most of the influx in homebuyers ( which has slowed WAY down), comes from CA/WA/TX/NY. There are still a lot of young people from the midwest who move to CO, but they are primarily renting. In western CO, there are a lot of buyers trading in their Front Range houses or buying second homes.

If we had stayed in the Midwest after college instead of leaving for Colorado, our financial picture today would likely be quite different.

Sometimes it is better to be lucky than to be good. LMAO.

BTW, as far as more recent property appreciation, most of Utah has far exceeded Colorado. We considered moving to Utah around 2012. Property values there since that time have gone nuts.

All my recent neighbors in Western CO have come from TX, RI, UT, NY, CA, NV and the front range. Some due to retiring and escaping areas they no longer care for - CA/TX. Some wanting out of cold, long winters. Some for the same reasons we moved here, the west is best. It’s different out here.
To my eye there is still a boom in the western part of the state. Nothing stays on the market long. Lots of new construction.

 

[flyoverstate]

All my recent neighbors in Western CO have come from TX, RI, UT, NY, CA, NV and the front range. Some due to retiring and escaping areas they no longer care for - CA/TX. Some wanting out of cold, long winters. Some for the same reasons we moved here, the west is best. It’s different out here.
To my eye there is still a boom in the western part of the state. Nothing stays on the market long. Lots of new construction.

I wouldn't call it boom time in our area, but good houses sell immediately. There are a lot of multi-million dollar large ranches, and a lot of very overpriced trailers/very old homes in need of repair, and not much in between, especially with acreage.

 

[Hyper]

Acreages around us have sold within days of being listed what few have come on the market. Half of those are offgrid acreages like ours.
3.5 hours south have multiple data centers coming in to be built. They're setting up 5-6k man, man camps to do the construction.
Those that stay I can easily see buying acreages up around us for second home cabins etc.
Although not much on the market up here now, a lot of the current owners are in their 80s now so would think a good bit of places should start being listed.

 

[Kings over Queens]

My DSister is trying with no luck to sell her $350K home in Colorado Springs. Too much inventory there is making it a buyer's market.

My daughter is in Denver and has started looking around for their first home. She's commented that the covid influx of people are now making their exodus and values are down. I haven't looked at any data, just repeating what she's told me.

We considered and then dropped the idea for a second home outside of Denver. Love the weather and vistas, don't like the traffic.

 

[COcheesehead]

My daughter is in Denver and has started looking around for their first home. She's commented that the covid influx of people are now making their exodus and values are down. I haven't looked at any data, just repeating what she's told me.

We considered and then dropped the idea for a second home outside of Denver. Love the weather and vistas, don't like the traffic.

My wife is a Denver native. I lived there for over 25 years. It’s not what it used to be. We’d never move back. Lot of folks in our neighborhood are ex Denverites.

 

[Fermion]

When doing our cross country trip (several times now) for the Great Loop we usually go just above Colorado on I80 then east on I25 at Cheyenne. Amazing how empty it is just above your state.

 

[flyoverstate]

The Front Range honestly should not be as built out as it is, that area simply doesn't have the natural water supply to support the population. There are several tunnels that pipe water from the Colorado River basin that have allowed the Denver area to grow beyond the natural carrying capacity, but the reality is currently hitting the fan, from Ft. Collins to Pueblo, and across the Southwest, that the Colorado River is over allocated and there is no buffer for dry periods.

To be fair, Phoenix is in a much worse water position, and they are much more delusional about their future prospects, but Denver and Las Vegas are not far behind. The economies of all three cities are anchored on endless growth, and that concept has to come to an end sooner or later. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at crisis levels, the alarms are sounding, and yet the seven states that use the Colorado River are in a no compromise staredown over who is going to give up their share of the water. If this coming winter is as bad for moisture as last winter, there will be actual pain inflicted on individual residents, and once that happens, the bloom is off the rose of moving to these areas. As it *should* be.

Not only will strict water restrictions be required, electricity shortages are possible. The most recent plans from the Feds, (who have stepped in since the states are at an impasse), appear to acknowledge that Lake Powell will fall below the level needed to produce power if this winter is dry, even with Flaming Gorge reservoir being drawn down to try to save Lake Powell.

It is going to get ugly. May 18, 2026: Lake Powell is at 23.31% of capacity, Lake Mead is at 30.39% of capacity. Imagine you are on a long hot, hike with a partner, and your water bottles are at 23% and 30% full, and there is no water in sight. Would you be worried? So why are we building massive subdivisions, data centers, and chip manufacturing plants that rely on this water? You tell me.

The saying "Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting over", has never rung so true. Stay tuned, the water wars are imminent.

 

[COcheesehead]

The Colorado River at its very source in Rocky Mountain NP is already partially diverted to Denver. It’s called the Grand Ditch. Think about what that would do for all the people currently downstream if that didn’t happen.

The reality of water though on the western slope is currently a little overblown. I talk to a lot of fruit growers out here and no one’s worried. In fact we had good, almost all day rain here. Fruit will be early this year, but in good shape. Many converted from furrow irrigation to sprayers over the years. People adapt - except the folks that insist on lawns in the high desert. That’s just wrong.

Grand Ditch - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[rodi]

I'm in a similar situation to the OP... Hard to find good comps because we have an ADU. We're in an older subdivision (mid 1960s) but in a prime area... Close enough to the beach (2.5 miles as the crow flies) so we get the coastal breeze, great freeway access. Large lot for the area and being centrally located.

A house like ours, without the ADU, with original kitchen, bathrooms, and original single pane windows just sold for $1.6M. Across the street is a recent gut renovation with 1000 more square feet that is pending at $3.2M... but it's basically new construction. Neither have ADUs. Ours is not super renovated, but way more updated than the first house. Hard to figure out what our house is worth.

But for now that's ok since we like living here and kids are boomeranging post college... Spoiling our plans to downsize.

I still keep up with trying to figure out the home value... The ADU definitely adds a challenge. But plans to downsize are in hold

 

[flyoverstate]

The Colorado River at its very source in Rocky Mountain NP is already partially diverted to Denver. It’s called the Grand Ditch. Think about what that would do for all the people currently downstream if that didn’t happen.

The reality of water though on the western slope is currently a little overblown. I talk to a lot of fruit growers out here and no one’s worried. In fact we had good, almost all day rain here. Fruit will be early this year, but in good shape. Many converted from furrow irrigation to sprayers over the years. People adapt - except the folks that insist on lawns in the high desert. That’s just wrong.

Grand Ditch - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There are over a dozen diversions out of the Colorado River basin to the east side of the divide.

The water situation in western CO is dire for many. Ask about getting any kind of irrigation water out of any source if you don't have very, very senior water rights. Ask the owners of the Vinelands Power Plant in Palisade how they are doing. Grand Junction and Montrose have pretty solid drinking water supplies, but many of the smaller towns and districts do not and already have water restrictions. It is only May. If we don't get a really strong monsoon, there will be mandatory restrictions across the western slope, as have already been implemented on the Front Range.

Then, there is the wild card of what the Feds could order as mandatory cuts to prop up the Colorado River. They are focusing on the lower basin right now, but that can change and probably will. The Federal government dictating state's water usage in the upper basin would be unprecedented, but we are in the worst year of runoff for the Colorado River since records have been kept.