another MSN.com post today on the 4% rule

[Earl E Retyre]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/worst-case-scenario-warning-for-retirees-and-the-4-rule/ar-BB1gF1IC?ocid=msedgdhp
"The lost decade after 1999 does not represent a ‘worst-case’ scenario because the bear market in stocks was accompanied by an extension in the decadeslong bull market in bonds ... “A worst-case scenario would be one in which the lost decade for stocks began and lasted over a period when interest rates were at historic lows and either stayed low or rose in conjunction with high inflation. And that, they add, may be what retirees face now."

 

[Exchme]

Or they are fearmongering to get clicks.

 

[SecondCor521]

Paragraph 9 in the article:

"There are some caveats here, which are in the fine print. The pair assumed retirees increased their spending 3% a year over the past 20 years instead of simply in line with the official CPI. Also, more significantly, they assumed retirees were also paying 1% a year in fees, taxes and other costs. In other words, the 4% rule was more of a 5% rule."

 

[Koolau]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/worst-case-scenario-warning-for-retirees-and-the-4-rule/ar-BB1gF1IC?ocid=msedgdhp
"The lost decade after 1999 does not represent a ‘worst-case’ scenario because the bear market in stocks was accompanied by an extension in the decadeslong bull market in bonds ... “A worst-case scenario would be one in which the lost decade for stocks began and lasted over a period when interest rates were at historic lows and either stayed low or rose in conjunction with high inflation. And that, they add, may be what retirees face now."

And PMs (for those of us crazy enough to own them) went on a tear in that decade! But YMMV.

 

[pjigar]

And PMs (for those of us crazy enough to own them) went on a tear in that decade! But YMMV.

What is PM?

 

[Gremlin]

What is PM?

I assume he is talking about precious metals.

 

[Koolau]

What is PM?

Yes precious metals - usually gold and silver but some folks include platinum and/or palladium or even more exotic stuff. Naturally, you can hold PMs in lots of ways from funds to bars to coins. To me, it makes most sense to have some of the bright shiny stuff in your hot little hand - well, maybe in the lock box or a safe. DW likes to wear hers but YMMV.

 

[ncbill]

Or they are fearmongering to get clicks.

Yeah, hard to see that we face the same inflationary environment as say a 1960s retiree who saw accelerating inflation the first 15 years of their retirement, eventually reaching double-digits.

 

[Koolau]

Yeah, hard to see that we face the same inflationary environment as say a 1960s retiree who saw accelerating inflation the first 15 years of their retirement, eventually reaching double-digits.

That's an interesting take and shows how differently folks can view things. I've been surprised at the "low" inflation since my FIRE (16 years almost.) I've been expecting inflation and it looks like (hopefully I'm wrong) it may be starting about now. Please, may I be wrong! YMMV

 

[MarieIG]

Yes precious metals - usually gold and silver but some folks include platinum and/or palladium or even more exotic stuff. Naturally, you can hold PMs in lots of ways from funds to bars to coins. To me, it makes most sense to have some of the bright shiny stuff in your hot little hand - well, maybe in the lock box or a safe. DW likes to wear hers but YMMV.

I'm with DW on this one!