Anticipated gasoline price

[TromboneAl]

But it is just throwing solutions at symptoms rather than thinking through the root of the problem.

What do you think is the root of the problem?

 

[free4now]

Here's my prediction: at some point oil producers will get concerned about the development of alternative fuel vehicles, and drop prices substantially.

It's completely clear to most people who aren't politicians that a plug in hybrid is going to be be the most efficient and useful vehicle for the next few decades. Given that the plug in hybrid still can use gas, I don't think the oil companies are worried too much.

Hydrogen and even ethanol are mostly just political distractions to keep us from noticing that our development of electric and hybrid vehicles isn't progressing as fast as it could. The oil companies know that hydrogen and ethanol are not going to be able to change the status quo in our lifetimes, so the oil companies are probably very happy at the diversion.

 

[Zathras]

Higher gas prices may not be able to push hydrogen any faster, but they sure will push pure electric out the door a lot quicker (which I will be quite happy with).

 

[ERD50]

What do you think is the root of the problem?

Well, in the examples you gave, govt tries to encourage conservation of gasoline through all sorts of convoluted and indirect methods. That leaves all sorts of loopholes and gaps.

So, to get to the root of the problem, the first step is - define the problem. In this case, it seems to be 'we use too much gasoline'. What is the simplest, most direct, and time-proven method to get someone to purchase less of something? Raise the price of that thing - simple.

So if the govt wants to encourage conservation of gasoline, raise the price of gasoline. People and businesses will figure out ways to conserve, and there are no 'loopholes'. People will buy more eff cars, car-pool and do more things than congress could ever think of to save gas. And it could be done with one simple law that would set taxes on gas, not a zillion different 'conservation' laws that leave gaps, loopholes, unintended consequesnces and missed opportunities.

-ERD50

 

[dumpster56]

Bring me one of those small diesels from europe that gets 55 mpg.

 

[cantlogin]

40 mpg on gasoline is achievable with one of these now.

 

[TromboneAl]

So, to get to the root of the problem, the first step is - define the problem. In this case, it seems to be 'we use too much gasoline'. What is the simplest, most direct, and time-proven method to get someone to purchase less of something? Raise the price of that thing - simple.

I still see this as treating the symptoms, and see the root cause as: too many people. If the world population were 1.5 billion instead of 6 billion, there would be no energy problem.

I agree that in the short term (and probably also in the long term) there's nothing we can do about this root cause, and agree that price increases are one way of treating the symptom.

 

[ERD50]

I still see this as treating the symptoms, and see the root cause as: too many people. If the world population were 1.5 billion instead of 6 billion, there would be no energy problem.

I agree that in the short term (and probably also in the long term) there's nothing we can do about this root cause, and agree that price increases are one way of treating the symptom.

OK, you are digging deeper down in the root structure.

So, I'll frame my response a bit. If we wish to conserve gasoline in the USA w/o population restrictions..... raising the price is the way to go.

While I don't disagree with your premise, the actual numbers you use might not hold up. I'd have to check the actual numbers, but if all of the 1.5B people used energy at the rate that the average US citizen does, we might be using more energy than the current 6 billion? Something tells me that if we restricted population to that level, ALL those people would be expecting a high standard of living?

I think we would still need conservation efforts, it would just seem so available, we'd probably burn it all up and impact the environment, even if there were fewer of us. Just an observation, I probably can't back it up, more of a gut feel.

Maybe not exactly on-topic, but I heard a great quote on Science Friday recently. They were talking about peak-oil, and one guy said, 'The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones'. So, maybe at some point, what are now 'alternate' energy sources will just be viewed as 'better' energy sources? Maybe we will never 'run out' of oil?

-ERD50

 

[dumpster56]

I will never forget the day about two years ago when we were talking in a class of high school seniors and something came up about driving a car and the price of gasoline when a hand went up and out comes this beauty...

Mr, C I wonder... What happened to all of the bicycles the chinese used to ride??

In reference to our discussion of others in the world wanting the trappings of what we have in american society.

 

[bpp3]

The only thing that is going to make the American public 'want' small, high-mpg cars (Like Europe) is permanently HIGH gasoline prices (Like Europe).

This is probably true.

Heck, for me personally, I keep looking at ways to reduce my upcoming heating bills. Bottom line, almost everything except turning down the thermostat (even further!) and putting on another sweater is just too expensive. I'm gonna have to buy those gloves w/o fingertips next....

We just got out our kotatsu for the winter. A super cozy and economical way to keep warm. Who needs central heating?

 

[W2R]

We just got out our kotatsu for the winter. A super cozy and economical way to keep warm. Who needs central heating?

Interesting!! I had never heard of a kotatsu.

I turned the A/C back on last night, after a week of pleasantly moderate weather. That's New Orleans for you. We actually have two types of weather here - - hot, and really hot.

I agree with the person who said that Americans will prefer small cars with high gas mileage when gas prices get high enough. But the question is, how high will they have to get before more American men will gladly abandon their huge F-250 pick-ups and SUV's and band together in little Japanese cars for the daily commute to work? I know some who have (especially favoring a shiny new Prius, for example), and others who are in van pools, but some others still drive these gas hogs. Seems like most women have no problem with driving a car that gets good gas mileage (not meaning to start a fuss, but just pointing this out).

 

[TromboneAl]

I just read Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak. That amazon page has a good review. Some things I got from it:

1. In addition to higher oil prices, chaotic price swings might be expected.

2. The peak in production is occurring now. He's a geologist, and makes a good case that we cannot drill our way out of this problem.

3. The world peak in oil production per capita occurred in the 70s.

 

[FinanceDude]

I agree with the person who said that Americans will prefer small cars with high gas mileage when gas prices get high enough. But the question is, how high will they have to get before more American men will gladly abandon their huge F-250 pick-ups and SUV's and band together in little Japanese cars for the daily commute to work? I know some who have (especially favoring a shiny new Prius, for example), and others who are in van pools, but some others still drive these gas hogs. Seems like most women have no problem with driving a car that gets good gas mileage (not meaning to start a fuss, but just pointing this out).

WHy not find a way to get the "gas hogs" to get better MPG? Seems like all the work is done on small light cars. Well, wouldn't a hybrid F-150 save MORE gas than a nybrid Prius??

 

[ERD50]

We just got out our kotatsu for the winter. A super cozy and economical way to keep warm. Who needs central heating?

I keep thinking I need to do something like that - if I keep the space I'm in a bit warmer, I could turn the dial down even further during the day. It's kind of hard to predict the NG savings from say, 64F to 60F for the house and then offset with some electric heat for a space.

We like it cool at night, but an electric blanket might mean dropping a few more degrees with more comfort.

I just read Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak. That amazon page has a good review. Some things I got from it:

1. In addition to higher oil prices, chaotic price swings might be expected.
.

That is one of the reasons that (assuming we want the govt to be involved at all in conservation efforts) I'd like to see a tax that sets a base price for gas, and then publish a schedule with the floor moving up over time. That will get people thinking long term. I generally don't like govt involvement, but in this case, I think the floor would help reduce the swings, which I think would be a good stabilizing factor, for the 'common good'.

-ERD50

 

[W2R]

WHy not find a way to get the "gas hogs" to get better MPG? Seems like all the work is done on small light cars. Well, wouldn't a hybrid F-150 save MORE gas than a nybrid Prius??

That's a great idea! I don't know if a hybrid F-150 would be popular or not, but it seems to me that it would save a lot of gas.

 

[Helena]

The USA put men on the moon in 1969...
why haven't we developed and perfected
space solar energy by now ?

I know there was a Senate subcommittee
grilling NASA officials about space solar
energy back in the 1990s... is anything
being done to develop this ??

 

[W2R]

The USA put men on the moon in 1969...
why haven't we developed and perfected
space solar energy by now ?

I know there was a Senate subcommittee
grilling NASA officials about space solar
energy back in the 1990s... is anything
being done to develop this ??

My agency seems to be focusing more on wind energy than solar. Look for more alternative energy production in the near future. I don't know about space solar energy production, though, being just a peon/wageslave myself.

 

[Helena]

The moon could be used for space solar collection
as well as orbiting space solar collectors.

My brother is one of NASA's last remaining Apollo era
scientists. I asked him about space solar and he said
the initial cost would be quite expensive; but the money
spent on the war in Iraq would be a good start !

 

[FinanceDude]

That's a great idea! I don't know if a hybrid F-150 would be popular or not, but it seems to me that it would save a lot of gas.

If techniology could increase average MPG of all SUV's to 30 mpg, we might be able to tell the Middle East to "east sand".........

 

[W2R]

If techniology could increase average MPG of all SUV's to 30 mpg, we might be able to tell the Middle East to "east sand".........

I think we could probably do that anyway, though it wouldn't help the price of gas any...