Anyone else waiting for the 20 Year to hit 5.0%?

[COcheesehead]

I have also only traded the 20 year. It has been fairly predictable.

 

[Fermion]

I have also only traded the 20 year. It has been fairly predictable.

Last week and early this week I traded both the 20 year regular treasury bond and the 30 year TIPS. Made a decent chunk on both of them but have sold all now with rates back to 5%. Just waiting now for the next (insert crisis here) to buy again at 5.15% to 5.2%.

 

[Healthy Lifestyle]

How do you sell I bond before maturity, since I never tried before hand, how do you do it? Thanks.

 

[COcheesehead]

How do you sell I bond before maturity, since I never tried before hand, how do you do it? Thanks.

At Fidelity, you click on the position and hit sell. Pick your price or lot size from depth of book, confirm, and boom, done.

 

[COcheesehead]

Last week and early this week I traded both the 20 year regular treasury bond and the 30 year TIPS. Made a decent chunk on both of them but have sold all now with rates back to 5%. Just waiting now for the next (insert crisis here) to buy again at 5.15% to 5.2%.

One of the benefits of these bonds vs say an agency which doesn’t move much because of the lack of call protection.

 

[COcheesehead]

One word of caution when selling treasuries. There is a lot of volume and your first order may not fill. I try and pick a bid just below the highest just so the trade goes through.

 

[Fermion]

One word of caution when selling treasuries. There is a lot of volume and your first order may not fill. I try and pick a bid just below the highest just so the trade goes through.

At e-Trade I usually have to hit the sell (or buy) button about two or three times before the trade gets accepted to the bond desk. It will pop up a "the price has changed" (mostly to the detriment) by a penny or so but eventually you can get something accepted and it gets filled within a minute or so. We are only talking a few dollars here on a $1500 gain of a $100,000 purchase.

 

[COcheesehead]

At e-Trade I usually have to hit the sell (or buy) button about two or three times before the trade gets accepted to the bond desk. It will pop up a "the price has changed" (mostly to the detriment) by a penny or so but eventually you can get something accepted and it gets filled within a minute or so. We are only talking a few dollars here on a $1500 gain of a $100,000 purchase.

Same. The highest bid flys off the shelf so I use depth of book and pick one bid below it. Like you, I might lose a buck or two, but it fills.

 

[FD1000]

I don't wait for anything. My idea is to make money in bonds when rates are 1%, 3%, or 5%. I can always find a fund that makes money, unless the risk is very high and/or unique market conditions arise.

 

[PaulR888]

I own a small dab of the long bond as Market Crash insurance, assuming that page still in the playbook. Who knows these days. By the end of this year, I am hoping for finally a rally in the long bond. I am optimistic because Warsh has his target on a 2 handle for inflation. Inflation coming down or the expectation of it, should help the long bond. Also, the Fed on hold or maybe tighten, should bring down long rates.

 

[jim584672]

Back over 5% now.

 

[Earl E Retyre]

Yup … bought some more this morning

 

[Montecfo]

easier to trade the TLT?

 

[jim584672]

easier to trade the TLT?

Same concept, bids and offers. But with actual bonds you would owe accrued interest to the seller for the off cycle days. When you sell the next buyer pays you accrued interest.

Look for the min size offers, if you want to buy 250 you may get a better price than for a smaller lot. Depends on the depth of the book.

 

[TickTock]

I'm light in the 5th year rung of my bond ladder. 20-year USTs at 5% look attractive. Decisions, decisions...

I've been overweighting the 1st year rung, but with current interest rates I'm considering going back to even weights and extending beyond five years.

 

[Fermion]

Why exactly are the 20 year (and the 30 year TIPS) going up so much this week?

 

[Chuckanut]

Why exactly are the 20 year (and the 30 year TIPS) going up so much this week?

Perhaps the market is expecting inflation to be a long-time problem?

 

[jim584672]

Back up again, 5.20% in throwing distance.

 

[PaulR888]

My long bond holding has never given me a chance yet to rebalance. But the 5% yield is nice.

 

[TickTock]

We're looking to buy the 20-year UST at the 7/16 auction.

 

[PaulR888]

We're looking to buy the 20-year UST at the 7/16 auction.

I hold ZROZ, 30 yr strips, only a 3% PV target.