Anyone selling stocks to buy CDs, treasuries?

[Chuckanut]

Getting the inflation rate down to that 2% may be tough. The 80% rule seems vary common in all of life’s challenges.

80% rule: The first 80% takes 20% of the effort. The last 20% takes 80% of the effort.

We may be stuck around 3% for quite some time.

 

[lem1955]

Since my equity allocation has dropped below my target, I am now buying equity with bits of interest and dividends. Holding onto the cash I have on hand for emergency purposes.

 

[Mulligan]

Is there some comprehensive record listing Dimon's predictions vs what actually happened? I doubt it. The old quotation applies: "The purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look good."



In his book, "the signal and the noise" Nate Silver provides a very worthwhile chapter on economic forecasting. In it, he reports a conversation with Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius. His opinion? "Nobody has a clue."

Here is one…. Jamie Dimon says people should prepare for U.S. yields of 5 percent, warning investors that borrowing costs throughout the economy are likely to rise beyond even his prior forecasts….
Sounds reasonable except that was said in August of 2018….And we still havent got there 5 years later and a bout of 9% inflation in between too.
Of course he is very intelligent. But being a banking expert isnt going to make one a better predictor of interest rates than an NFL head coach is predicting which NFL teams will cover the spread.

 

[aja8888]

Here is one…. Jamie Dimon says people should prepare for U.S. yields of 5 percent, warning investors that borrowing costs throughout the economy are likely to rise beyond even his prior forecasts….
Sounds reasonable except that was said in August of 2018….And we still havent got there 5 years later and a bout of 9% inflation in between too.
Of course he is very intelligent. But being a banking expert isnt going to make one a better predictor of interest rates than an NFL head coach is predicting which NFL teams will cover the spread.

He'd make a good politician (good meaning he could look the part). He's photogenic, likes to be on camera, dresses well, makes macro predictions with no backup data and smiles a lot.

 

[davidfin]

Doesn’t it matter what your personal hurdle rate is? For example, if you’ve based your retirement plans on an average 6% return, why wouldn’t you load up on 6.2% 10 year A/A corporate bonds right now? Maybe 60% bonds 40% equities. Seems like a winner strategy.

 

[COcheesehead]

Doesn’t it matter what your personal hurdle rate is? For example, if you’ve based your retirement plans on an average 6% return, why wouldn’t you load up on 6.2% 10 year A/A corporate bonds right now? Maybe 60% bonds 40% equities. Seems like a winner strategy.

I have said this before on here in many threads. Know your numbers - those that make your plan work and invest accordingly. There are so many non callable investment grade options out there paying over 6%. I ran a screen the other day and I think I got 910 possible options.

 

[Koolau]

I have said this before on here in many threads. Know your numbers - those that make your plan work and invest accordingly. There are so many non callable investment grade options out there paying over 6%. I ran a screen the other day and I think I got 910 possible options.

Does that screening require special software? Do you screen within the "big houses" that sell such instruments or do you screen across "public info" like the NY Times financial page? This is all new to me. I'm not sure I'd even know where to buy. Does Vanguard offer these 6 percenters in their brokerage?

Again, this is all new to me as most of my "fixed income" is in MYGAs and a GIF in my 401(k). Any education would be welcomed by this old "newbie."

 

[COcheesehead]

Does that screening require special software? Do you screen within the "big houses" that sell such instruments or do you screen across "public info" like the NY Times financial page? This is all new to me. I'm not sure I'd even know where to buy. Does Vanguard offer these 6 percenters in their brokerage?

Again, this is all new to me as most of my "fixed income" is in MYGAs and a GIF in my 401(k). Any education would be welcomed by this old "newbie."

No, it’s a tool within Fidelity to search 168,000+ bonds and find the fixed income investments that fit the parameters of your choosing.