Which rules are you considering? From the studies I've made, I think many people overstate the effect of moderate spending cuts.
I've spent the most time on the Guyton rules. The VPW and some of the others seem to either product radical dips or leave gobs on the table. Since we've always lived below our means our percentage of fixed expenses is probably higher than many. Also, we're not looking for ways to justify spending a ton early. We like our lifestyle and I'm not sure what I'd do with a bunch of extra cash in a given year. It seems that the higher the wants/needs ratio, the easier it would be to manage in a rules-based approach.
What success rate does a historical calculator like FIRECalc give you with your current assumptions? Are you planning for an extended joint LE? I'd start there, and then try entering some offsetting income to simulate a cut in spending. I've found that it takes severs cuts over many years (5+?) to have any significant effect. If your portfolio takes a 40% hit, taking spending from 4% to 3% is a pretty minor in comparison.
I've used the following assumptions:
- Inflation adjusted spending
- SS at 70 with no adjustment for cutbacks
- A few adjustments for deferred comp and a new vehicle early in retirement
- Portfolio: 45% S&P, 10% SC, 35% corporate, 10% 1M Treasury, 0.5% ER. This is very close to my current AA/ER.
- 45 year retirement (we're 52 and 49 now). We both have longevity in our families. A good thing for us, but one more complexity in planning.
I get 100% for all of the time periods from 30-45. FC says we can start with ~4.25% WR. Based on our current portfolio we'd be spending about 3.25% since that's all we need.
That spending range seems to put us squarely between the living from dividend with no worries group and the 4% (or 3.5%?) rule followers. I could probably get to the first group if I worked for a few more years, but I'd rather not.
Yes, I think many LBYM people do not have a lot of discretionary spending. And making cuts to the other stuff would require a big change, like moving to a much lower COL area. That entails expenses (selling, moving, new furniture, etc), and risk (what if you don't like the new place?).
Yup, that's our situation. Not a lot of room to cut w/o feeling it. We do have a plan C to downsize to a less expensive home (it's small but in an expensive location) if needed.
This is a unique planning process since only on our deathbeds will we really know if the plan worked. At work I've always been able to at least ballpark what will happen based on our plans, but then again this takes on an increased significance since it is so personal. I'm pretty sure I'm completely over-thinking this, but that's my nature and I'm always interested in the experiences of those that have been there before me.
It's easier (and faster) to learn from the experiences/mistakes of others than your own, right?