The above are good for many investors.CD and MYGA require zero watching, maintenance, anything. They are guaranteed, in writing. The interest is always paid, on-time.
I would consider them if they paid 8-9% annually.
The above are good for many investors.CD and MYGA require zero watching, maintenance, anything. They are guaranteed, in writing. The interest is always paid, on-time.
How do you think I made over 13% on average annually with a portfolio that owns 95+% in bond OEFs since 2018 and never lost more than 1% from any last top?
* I don't use indexes
* I don't use high-rates bond funds
* I use nice uptrend funds without high volatility for that period.
* Any time my fund is losing 0.5%, I watch carefully; at -0.7% to -0.8% I sell and switch to another.
* I use only 2-3 funds
* Every year I find funds like that.
* If I don't find funds like that, I stay with a generic, very good risk-reward fund until I find one.
* I sell immediately when risk is very high
* There is no way to predict the future; markets and charts in real time are the ultimate indicators.
* There is no way to do anything close to the above without flexibility, thinking outside the box, timing, and finding funds like that.
* You will not find funds that you can buy and hold that have done it.
Examples:
From early 2023 to 03/2025 I used HOSIX. I never used CLO before. In the last several months, the managers increased liquidity and ratings to 84% IG.
From early 2024 to 03/2025 I used CLOZ.
From April 2025 I started with EIGMX + EGRIX. Several months later, only EGRIX. I never used EM/international before.
Hosix latest INFO
View attachment 62174
That is quite impressive. Seems just as complicated as picking equities, but potentially less risky with your knowledge. Less upside, but less downside. Unfortunately, most of us don't have that skill. Maybe you have posted about this previously and I didn't follow.How do you think I made over 13% on average annually with a portfolio that owns 95+% in bond OEFs since 2018 and never lost more than 1% from any last top?
* I don't use indexes
* I don't use high-rates bond funds
* I use nice uptrend funds without high volatility for that period.
* Any time my fund is losing 0.5%, I watch carefully; at -0.7% to -0.8% I sell and switch to another.
* I use only 2-3 funds
* Every year I find funds like that.
* If I don't find funds like that, I stay with a generic, very good risk-reward fund until I find one.
* I sell immediately when risk is very high
* There is no way to predict the future; markets and charts in real time are the ultimate indicators.
* There is no way to do anything close to the above without flexibility, thinking outside the box, timing, and finding funds like that.
* You will not find funds that you can buy and hold that have done it.
Examples:
From early 2023 to 03/2025 I used HOSIX. I never used CLO before. In the last several months, the managers increased liquidity and ratings to 84% IG.
From early 2024 to 03/2025 I used CLOZ.
From April 2025 I started with EIGMX + EGRIX. Several months later, only EGRIX. I never used EM/international before.
Hosix latest INFO
View attachment 62174
View attachment 62171
View attachment 62172
Not to be a buzzkill, but what’s your inflation strategy? CPI has averaged 2.4% annually since 2008, and CPI likely lowballs actual inflation in the real world.I have been in bond funds since 1990. I don't invest in them to turn a profit. I invest in them for the income, especially the big bond fund I invested in bigtime back in late 2008 when I ERed. The monthly income from that bond fund provides me with most or all of the income I need to pay the bills.
Another bond fund, an intermediate-term muni bond fund I have been in since 1994, I use as a second-tier emergency fund. It has been paying 2-2,5% annually, mostly tax-free. It has checkwriting privileges, making the money more quickly and easily accessible. I have written 19 checks in the 31 years I have been in the fund. Sometimes, I made a profit. Sometimes, I took a loss. Overall, I am slightly ahead. I use FIFO for cost basis, so a paper profit or loss usually depended on which shares I bought 10 or 15 years earlier. An intermediate-term fund does fluctuate in price, but not too much for me.
I also have a intermediate-term corporate bond fund in my rollover IRA. It is the bond component in that account. It has been growing nicely since its inception in 2008 when I ERed. And rebalancing moves I have made in that account in the last 17 years have had no tax consequences.
I like bond funds.
Your success has been impeccable, but with all due respect, my mind is boggled (pun intended) to see how you and I could conceivably be any more different!* I don't use indexes
* I sell immediately when risk is very high
* There is no way to predict the future; markets and charts in real time are the ultimate indicators.
* There is no way to do anything close to the above without flexibility, thinking outside the box, timing, and finding funds like that.
* You will not find funds that you can buy and hold that have done it.
+1Your success has been impeccable, but with all due respect, my mind is boggled (pun intended) to see how you and I could conceivably be any more different!
1. I use almost exclusively indices.
2. I've hardly sold anything since the 1990s, instead only adding (including as a semi-retiree).
3. I absolutely abjure charts, technical indicators and even fundamentals.
4. Thinking outside of the box? The box is hermetically sealed.
5. I'd have bought-and-held even if I were a stock market investor in Russia in 1917. Or in the US, in 1929.
I have several strategies. One is that I do not use much of my portfolio to pay the bills. I have not yet begun to tap into my rollover IRA and do not need SS yet even though I am technically old enough (62) to claim it. I am not old enough yet to claim my frozen company pension. These 3 "reinforcements" are just sitting out there, not needed yet because my taxable portfolio generates enough income to cover the bills with some left over.Not to be a buzzkill, but what’s your inflation strategy? CPI has averaged 2.4% annually since 2008, and CPI likely lowballs actual inflation in the real world.
It sounds like you do very well. My concern is that I have no skill, experience or (frankly) interest in "managing" at this level. I'm glad it w*rks for you, though.How do you think I made over 13% on average annually with a portfolio that owns 95+% in bond OEFs since 2018 and never lost more than 1% from any last top?
* I don't use indexes
* I don't use high-rates bond funds
* I use nice uptrend funds without high volatility for that period.
* Any time my fund is losing 0.5%, I watch carefully; at -0.7% to -0.8% I sell and switch to another.
* I use only 2-3 funds
* Every year I find funds like that.
* If I don't find funds like that, I stay with a generic, very good risk-reward fund until I find one.
* I sell immediately when risk is very high
* There is no way to predict the future; markets and charts in real time are the ultimate indicators.
* There is no way to do anything close to the above without flexibility, thinking outside the box, timing, and finding funds like that.
* You will not find funds that you can buy and hold that have done it.
Examples:
From early 2023 to 03/2025 I used HOSIX. I never used CLO before. In the last several months, the managers increased liquidity and ratings to 84% IG.
From early 2024 to 03/2025 I used CLOZ.
From April 2025 I started with EIGMX + EGRIX. Several months later, only EGRIX. I never used EM/international before.
Hosix latest INFO
View attachment 62174
View attachment 62171
View attachment 62172
Investing has been my passion for decades. Over the years, I read countless research papers and articles repeating the same conclusions: there’s no free lunch, market timing doesn’t work, and it’s impossible to achieve strong performance with very low volatility.It sounds like you do very well. My concern is that I have no skill, experience or (frankly) interest in "managing" at this level. I'm glad it w*rks for you, though.
True. I was the Sr. Financial Officer for a Municipal Utility District. Our Mantra wasA bond fund could lose value, which means you might end up with less cash that you expected. You could do a ladder using bonds or target maturity bond funds. Finally, nothing wrong with giving up a little yield for the safety, liquidity, and certainty of a MMF.
Exactly. If my fixed income has as much (or near as much) volatility as my equities, (e.g. on downside leveraged cefs) rather be in equities with its long term performance as my guide. Fixed should be safe and lend stability to the portfolio. It should not be a gamble onto itself even if offers projected high yield. Current high yield is not an indication of future good performance nor a buffer for poor performance. It is just high yield. Many don't get that on some forums, and so, for any non entertainment utility even just browsing must sift through the chaff.My asset allocation is currently 52% stock / 48% fixed income. I expect volatility in my stock allocation, which are mostly funds and ETF. I don’t expect any with my fixed income. As long as I’m keeping up with inflation, I’m good.
Thanks for your explanation of how you arrived at your level of expertise. Honestly, I've never wanted to w*rk that hard toward such a goal. I've been more of the "couch-potato" investor and being satisfied with "average" results. And all that was after allowing FAs to "direct" my investments (with generally disastrous results).Investing has been my passion for decades. Over the years, I read countless research papers and articles repeating the same conclusions: there’s no free lunch, market timing doesn’t work, and it’s impossible to achieve strong performance with very low volatility.
In 2000, I decided to challenge those assumptions, and I did. I approached investing as a lifelong mission, one that could easily span 60+ years. It took about 13 years of learning, testing, and refining before I truly mastered my approach. The results were transformative: I was able to retire after just 23 years from when I began investing, far earlier than I had expected, and remain comfortably retired without worrying about our portfolio running out.
For me, investing was never just about returns (which I had anyway). It was about building the confidence, discipline, and resilience needed to sustain financial independence over the long term.
So how did I get there?
It started in high school and continued through university and later in my professional career. The goal was never to memorize formulas or theories. Instead, it was about developing the skills needed to solve complex problems with simple, elegant solutions.
No idea was considered stupid. Brainstorming was essential, and every idea had to be defended and proven with reasoning and evidence.
Hierarchy didn’t matter either. A great idea could come from someone who was 22 years old or 50. You could be a manager or just starting your career. Good ideas don’t care about titles.
And “no” was never the final answer, it was simply a temporary obstacle until a better solution could be found.
That mindset ultimately shaped my investing approach. The model I developed is deliberately simple and does not require spending hours watching markets or constantly trading.
======================
The challenge with bond investing is that most investors want to hold bonds for many years while expecting three things at the same time: safety, liquidity, and high distributions. In reality, you usually can’t have all three simultaneously.
However, markets occasionally create windows of opportunity when those conditions briefly align. At times lasting months or even a few years, it becomes possible to capture attractive yields while still maintaining reasonable safety and liquidity. The key is recognizing and taking advantage of those temporary opportunities when they appear.
How can bond funds have the same volatility as typical stock funds?Exactly. If my fixed income has as much volatility as my equities, rather be in equities with its long term performance as my guide. Fixed should be safe and lend stability to the portfolio. It should not be a gamble onto itself even if offers projected high yield. Current high yield is not an indication of future good performance nor a buffer for poor performance. It is just high yield. Many don't get that on some forums, and so, for any non entertainment utility even just browsing must sift through the chaff.
Same with target maturity bond ETFs when held to maturity.CD and MYGA require zero watching, maintenance, anything. They are guaranteed, in writing. The interest is always paid, on-time.
Those are working for you as expected? I have them on my “consider” list as I try to figure all this out.Same with target maturity bond ETFs when held to maturity.
Wow very impressive.Investing has been my passion for decades. Over the years, I read countless research papers and articles repeating the same conclusions: there’s no free lunch, market timing doesn’t work, and it’s impossible to achieve strong performance with very low volatility.
In 2000, I decided to challenge those assumptions, and I did. I approached investing as a lifelong mission, one that could easily span 60+ years. It took about 13 years of learning, testing, and refining before I truly mastered my approach. The results were transformative: I was able to retire after just 23 years from when I began investing, far earlier than I had expected, and remain comfortably retired without worrying about our portfolio running out.
For me, investing was never just about returns (which I had anyway). It was about building the confidence, discipline, and resilience needed to sustain financial independence over the long term.
So how did I get there?
It started in high school and continued through university and later in my professional career. The goal was never to memorize formulas or theories. Instead, it was about developing the skills needed to solve complex problems with simple, elegant solutions.
No idea was considered stupid. Brainstorming was essential, and every idea had to be defended and proven with reasoning and evidence.
Hierarchy didn’t matter either. A great idea could come from someone who was 22 years old or 50. You could be a manager or just starting your career. Good ideas don’t care about titles.
And “no” was never the final answer, it was simply a temporary obstacle until a better solution could be found.
That mindset ultimately shaped my investing approach. The model I developed is deliberately simple and does not require spending hours watching markets or constantly trading.
======================
The challenge with bond investing is that most investors want to hold bonds for many years while expecting three things at the same time: safety, liquidity, and high distributions. In reality, you usually can’t have all three simultaneously.
However, markets occasionally create windows of opportunity when those conditions briefly align. At times lasting months or even a few years, it becomes possible to capture attractive yields while still maintaining reasonable safety and liquidity. The key is recognizing and taking advantage of those temporary opportunities when they appear.
So far, yes.Those are working for you as expected? I have them on my “consider” list as I try to figure all this out.
General rule in a rising rate environment is to stay short, but I get the attraction.20 year treasury today was near 5% yield. Very Very tempting. Money market is only paying 3.x%
Not tempting to me. I can make up the 1.5%/year easily by writing way-out-of-the-money puts secured by the cash. And I will also buy into value stocks, not growth stocks, when it feels right.20 year treasury today was near 5% yield. Very Very tempting. Money market is only paying 3.x%
Kind of tempting to me, even though I also write calls and such. You do it for fun though, so I can see how putting $3 million into 20 year treasuries and just getting $150,000 every year even if Canada invades Greenland would be boring. I keep thinking that $150,000 would buy a lot of small boats and solar panels.Not tempting to me. I can make up the 1.5%/year easily by writing way-out-of-the-money puts secured by the cash. And I will also buy into value stocks, not growth stocks, when it feels right.