As God is my witness, I will never be in

OK, I started this year with almost exactly $2 mil, and up, up, up it went. Then A Fed Chairman opens his mouth for 30 seconds and I'm back to down about $150k.

Can these FED bank people please shut up.

That $150K was lost just due to some dude spouting.

I could have fed a lot of homeless with that money if he had just shut up.

Over and over again, my net worth suffers because the FED talks.

If I buy an abode (could be a cheap trailer, I buy a car that will last, I put my money into cash (CD/MM) )and then I can just let the Fed Chairman (whoever, he/she is ) run their stupid mouths without affecting me. They are never right and the just reek.
 
Actually, it's even simpler.

If you outright, own your home, land, car, and major consumer products, and are all in cash earning interest, then your only worry is inflation.

No worrries from:
-Market being manipulated by constant excuses
-Incompetent Fed Chairman
-World events causing market fluctuations
-Gold/silver/platinum gyrations

Seems that you've eliminated most of the bad possibilities and are a slave only to inflation. But if inflation rises, so should your CD/MM interest.
 
OldAgePensioner said:
Actually, it's even simpler.

If you outright,  own your home, land, car, and major consumer products, and are all in cash earning interest, then your only worry is inflation.

No worrries from:
-Market being manipulated by constant excuses
-Incompetent Fed Chairman
-World events causing market fluctuations
-Gold/silver/platinum gyrations

Seems that you've eliminated most of the bad possibilities and are a slave only  to inflation.  But if inflation rises, so should your CD/MM interest.
Click to expand...

Even easier: buy a bunch of TIPS and other inflation-linked bonds and even inflation is not a problem. But of course, what you propose requires a lot of capital.
 
brewer12345 said:
Even easier: buy a bunch of TIPS and other inflation-linked bonds and even inflation is not a problem.  But of course, what you propose requires a lot of capital.
Click to expand...


I agree here, $2 million minus the home and auto purchases invested in inflation linked products will allow for enough money for a real long time.

Unless your gonna miss the action of watching the stock markets ups and downs.
 
OAP:  yikes! what were you holding to be down 7.5% YTD?
 
d,
William Berstein's Four Pillars of Investing Portfolio.

Lat two weeks were a pretty good indication that it only takes a couple of really bad weeks to make things uncomfortable.
 
d, not worth discussing. Preuvian cheery futures.

Market over the last to weeks has been fine, carry on.
 
OAP wouldn't be OAP if he were planning on paying any heed to any of the fine suggestions presented above.

He hates cars, hates homeownership, wants to be in a good weather, liberal, walking friendly environment- yet he plans to leave SF and move to a bunglow in the Arizona desert?

Sounds like a plan for sure.

Here is the only investment advice he will ever need, but certainly will not follow:

Stay put. At least for the time being.

Continue to rent, a cheaper place if necessary.

Avoid car ownership.

Put the majority of your assets into TIPS of varying maturies.

Put the rest into 13 and 26 week T-bills. Extend maturies to a max of 3 years when the yield curve is again paying for this.

Turn off the TV, enjoy your walks.

Ha
 
Ha,
I have not had a TV on for more than 45 minutes in this month.
Just ranting.
 
But, this market is sucking big time and being in cash is pretty comfortable.
 
OAP,
I have a simple solution to dealing with falling markets in a well-diversified portfolio: just don't look at your brokerage balances. Ignorance is bliss.

How would you know if they were up or down if you didn't look? Think about something else, go for a walk, make a new friend, cook a new dish, plant a new garden and promise yourself you'll check them again, say, at the end of the summer or maybe in the Fall.

I know it sounds naive or possibly communist, but it really works. We have these great web pages that calculate net worth up to the penny every day, and all they do is make us anxious and trigger-happy. Markets go up and down, and if you can learn to ignore a bit of volatility, you'll be able to ride them through to be a long-run winner. It's all a head game. Even if you remove all your volatility (at great cost in long run potential returns) you may just find the source of your financial anxiety has just moved on to another area. Win the game in your head and everything else will fall into place.
 
ESRBob said:
OAP,
I have a simple solution to dealing with falling markets in a well-diversified portfolio: just don't look at your brokerage balances. Ignorance is bliss.

How would you know if they were up or down if you didn't look?
Click to expand...

Kind of hard to not look when you are ER and pulling your income out of that portfolio. Are you suggesting making withdrawals without knowing whether there is anything in the account to withdraw?
 
OldAgePensioner said:
Actually, it's even simpler.

If you outright, own your home, land, car, and major consumer products, and are all in cash earning interest, then your only worry is inflation.

No worrries from:
-Market being manipulated by constant excuses
-Incompetent Fed Chairman
-World events causing market fluctuations
-Gold/silver/platinum gyrations
Click to expand...

But if your only worry is inflation, then the last 3 items on your list are some of your biggest worries!
 
Hydroman said:
Kind of hard to not look when you are ER and pulling your income out of that portfolio. Are you suggesting making withdrawals without knowing whether there is anything in the account to withdraw?
Click to expand...

I think what's implied here is having a balanced, diversified portfolio including a few years living expenses in cash/CD's. That way you can withdraw without worrying about what the market is doing at the moment.

Yep, it's very hard not to look. But with this arrangement it's easy not to sweat market gyrations. :)
 
ESRBob said:
OAP,
I have a simple solution to dealing with falling markets in a well-diversified portfolio:   just don't look at your brokerage balances.  Ignorance is bliss.

How would you know if they were up or down if you didn't look?  Think about something else, go for a walk, make a new friend, cook a new dish, plant a new garden and promise yourself you'll check them again, say, at the end of the summer or maybe in the Fall.
Click to expand...

ESRBob: Maybe you should consider writing a book. ;)

If I have learned anything in life it's that spending time worrying or fretting about things you are not in control of is time wasted, and taken to extreme will make you "bad company" ;) (Stock Mkt. performance, property values, adult children making goofy decisions, etc. etc.).

My adult children are going to spend the day with me today. I expect a "stress-free" get together. (It took a while for me to get there, but discovered that worrying and fretting, and giving unsolicited advice to them wasn't working. ;) (We're going to play golf). ;)

Oh, and "Happy fathers Day", to you and all the
other "gluttons for punishment" on the board. :D

Regards, Jarhead
 
Jarhead* said:
My adult children are going to spend the day with me today.  I expect a "stress-free" get together.  (It took a while for me to get there, but discovered that worrying and fretting, and giving unsolicited advice to them wasn't working. ;)  (We're going to play golf). ;)
Click to expand...

Sound advice. I am not there yet (but should have been years ago).
 
Here are my 2 portfolios and I cannot for the life of me see why they are volatile. Every time some financial news comes out the excuses for the market reaction are laughable. Let's see: "Analysts were dissapointed that althought profits exceeded predictions they only exceeded by 10%", boom market tanks.

Can anyone see why these portfolios lost so much money in the last 2 weeks.

This portfolio is my after-tax portfolio. $1.24 mil

FTEXX FIDELITY MUNICIPAL MONEY MARKET
CSCO CISCO SYS INC
ELOS SYNERON MEDICAL LTD ORD SHS
FBGRX FIDELITY BLUE CHIP GROWTH
INTC INTEL CORP
NAESX VANGUARD SMALL CAP STOCK INDEX TRUST
PHH PHH CORP COM NEW
TBGVX TWEEDY BROWNE GLOBAL VALUE FUND
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP
VBINX VANGUARD BALANCED INDEX
VEURX VANGUARD EUROPEAN STOCK INDEX
VGSIX VANGUARD REIT INDEX FUND
VIVAX VANGUARD VALUE INDEX
VPACX VANGUARD PACIFIC STOCK INDEX
VTOVX VANGUARD TARGET RET 2005 FD INVESTOR CL


This is my IRA (410k was rolled into this account) $920K
FDRXX* FIDELITY CASH RESERVES
FEMKX FIDELITY EMERGING MARKETS
FHKCX FIDELITY CHINA REGION
FICDX FIDELITY CANADA
FLATX FIDELITY LATIN AMERICA
ISM SLM CORP PFD SER A CP
VB VANGUARD INDEX FDS VANGUARD SMALL CAP VIPERS FORMERLY VANGUA
VDE VANGUARD SECTOR INDEX FDS VANGUARD ENERGY VIPERS
VGPMX VANGUARD PRECIOUS METALS & MINING FUND
VGTSX VANGUARD TOTAL INTL STOCK INDEX FUND
VNQ VANGUARD INDEX FDS FORMERLY VANGUARD INDEX TR TO 05/24/01 RE
VO VANGUARD INDEX FDS VANGUARD MID CAP VIPERS FORMERLY VANGUARD
VTI VANGUARD INDEX TR VANGUARD TOTAL STK MKT VIPERS
VTRIX VANGUARD INTERNATL VALUE PORTFOLIO
VWO VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FD INC VANGUARD EMERGING MKTS VIP
 
PS: I made quite a bit of money in the last 12 months. It's not that the market is volatile that bums me out.

It's the petty little things that cause the market to tank.

1. Two hostages are kidnapped in Iraq. Boom, out go the lights.
2. Bernacke says , blah, blah . Boom, out go the lights.
3. Analysts expect next quarter to, blah. (there never right but hey, boom...
4. Economy is growing to fast, why the hell is that bad? Boom out go the lights.

And, really it's the herd mentality that scares me the most. Why was Cisco, JDSUniphase, Microsoft, Intel, EMC, etc all worth $100 or more a share one day and by the end of week 2 they were in the teens? Herd mentality.
 
OAP,
Looking at your stocks and funds you seem to be represented in most, if not all, asset classes. But what % do you hold? In other words, what % in equities, bonds, cash? When I organize my funds this way then I can get a better sense of lining up my risk tolerance to my exposure to the markets.

My own port, like most everyone else, has taken a hit, too. I am down 4.5% from my high point. I've also noticed the same nuttiness with the markets but I figure I just have to wait it out. I also wonder if the herd mentality will actually put us into a bear market. It helps me to read the responses from the other posters here. You should read the stuff posted on some other financial discussion boards. It would scare the heck out of you (not recommending you do this.)

LL
 
OAP,

It sounds to me as if this has been building stress for a very long time for you. You mentioned Cisco and Microsoft at $100 plus. That hasn't been the case in years (2 at least).

As others have said, do you best not to look at your stocks every day. If your portfolio is balanced with cash, bonds and stocks you shouldn't need to keep an eye on it every day. It just causes stress (I know, it took me a while:)).

Some cash is good if you are currently drawing, but all cash is not so good if you need your portfolio to last you a long time.

This may just be a great opportunity to buy :D
 
LL,
I'm at $200k in the MM portion of my after-tax.

My only bond exposure is within a few of the funds.  Not much at all.

My hypothetical "safe" life setup. (Not that I'm gonna do it)

1. Paid for brand new "small" home built to my specs.  $350k
2. Brand new Lexus or some other long living car.  $40k
3. All brand new major consumer goods,furniture, TV, VCR, fridge, stove, dishwasher, etc. $60k
4. All brand new clothes, shoes, coats, etc. $3k
5. Set up bond ladder or annuity to pay food, lights, water, taxes, insurance, etc. $400k

That is roughly $850K and since $200k of the port. is cash, I could probably net that much cashing out the $1.24m portfolio.

I could do the 5 things above and still have a $900k "reserve" IRA portfolio and SS coming in at 62 1/2.

So even if the market takes a big correction due to all this war spending and all-out printing press money manufacturing.  I'm affected very little.

Even inflation can't hurt me much.  I've already bought everything.
 
Zathras,
In the beginning of the year 2000, Cisco Systems was $90 and as you see in my portfolio I owned 8000 shares, by the end of 2000 it was roughly $10 for a loss of $640k and it has only recovered to $20 for a loss of $560k.

At the beginning of 2000, I was a moderately wealthy man, just by holding firm in the market, I became roughly 20% of a moderately wealthy man.

6 long years later, I'm back to roughly half where I was. In 2000, I almost sold everything very early when the market got shaky but all my advice was hang in there the market will come back.

Well, maybe by some time in 15 years I will be back to where I was 6 years ago. I do trust that a well diversified portfolio over a long period is the best investment. It's just I'm leary that we are in for a 500-800 point correction any day now. And a long slow recovery. We'll see.
 
OAP,

Yeah, 2000 hit a lot of people really hard.

If the daily swings cause too much anxiety (I can certainly understand that with 2000 in your background) cash may be the way to go.

The reduction of stress is definately worth quite a bit. Sounds like you have a well laid out plan which is always important.

I'm just saying that if you have the time and money to cover you during the dip in the market, weekly fluxuations shouldn't cause the destruction of your portfolio.

Again though, if it causes stress for you, you have to decide if that stress and risk is worth it.
 
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