Asteroid Watch!

[MichaelB]

A recent blog post at NASA (here) announces a newly discovered asteroid, named “2024 YR4” that is on a possible collision course with planet earth. NASA’s assessment (here) is there is a 2.4% probability of a collision on Dec 22 2032. Only 8 years away.

While still an extremely low possibility, additional observations and analysis of asteroid 2024 YR4 indicate that its impact probability with Earth has increased to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032.

Reports (here) estimate the asteroid to be somewhere between 130 ft to 330 ft. This would mean a collision would not destroy planet earth but could cause serious damage.

Any suggestions?

 

[MuirWannabe]

BTD.

Seriously, it’s fun to talk about. But not really much of a concern imo. Additional observations will almost certainly reduce the percentage down to nill.

 

[REWahoo]

Any suggestions?

Nope, but I want to go on record that I'm having a great deal of difficulty resisting the urge to post, "I told you so!"

 

[Walt34]

Oh, goodie! Lots of old science fiction stories and a couple of movies turn into real life.

 

[aja8888]

A recent blog post at NASA (here) announces a newly discovered asteroid, named “2024 YR4” that is on a possible collision course with planet earth. NASA’s assessment (here) is there is a 2.4% probability of a collision on Dec 22 2032. Only 8 years away.



Reports (here) estimate the asteroid to be somewhere between 130 ft to 330 ft. This would mean a collision would not destroy planet earth but could cause serious damage.

Any suggestions?

Any suggestions?

Keep your head down and keep thinning the cabbage!

 

[MichaelB]

Nope, but I want to go on record that I'm having a great deal of difficulty resisting the urge to post, "I told you so!"

Rightfully so. My first thought when reading about this was “REWahoo warned about this years ago”.

 

[AudiDudi]

One way to save Social Security. Isn't it about the size of the one that hit AZ and left "meteor crater"? OFC, wouldn't be good if it hit NYC or WADC. About a 70% chance it land in the ocean.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Any suggestions?

Everyone should start their Social Security now since we all have a clear picture of the future.

No more when should I start SS threads needed....

 

[Walt34]

Everyone should start their Social Security now since we all have a clear picture of the future.

No more when should I start SS threads needed....

Yes, finally, a resolution to that age-old question!

 

[RunningBum]

Retire NOW! since you "probably" only have a few years to live, no matter what your health is.
And ice cream for breakfast, every day! Replace with your own favorite dessert or other rich food.

I wonder how many near misses have come in the last few hundred years without us knowing it, or seeing it only after it was clear to miss. Or have there been any times of hysteria where people thought it might hit?

 

[2HOTinPHX]

Everyone should start their Social Security now since we all have a clear picture of the future.

No more when should I start SS threads needed....

We could also stop all the do I have enough to retire on threads now that we have an end date.

But sounds like it may not be total destruction so perhaps start stocking up on toilet paper and Twinkies.

 

[JoeWras]

I read another source that said if it does impact, the point of probability starts in northern S. America (Columbia) and goes across the ocean to Africa and south Asia. The Africa areas are basically in the big population zone of W. Africa, then across the Arabian Sea, then India and the heavily populated areas of SE Asia. Basically along latitude 10 degrees. There's some serious population along there.

How they know this and not whether it will actually hit leaves me dubious. I don't think we are all out of the woods.

 

[rk911]

I haven't double-checked but I seem to recall if it hits it would be in the southern hemispehere.

 

[Dtail]

We could also stop all the do I have enough to retire on threads now that we have an end date.

But sounds like it may not be total destruction so perhaps start stocking up on toilet paper and Twinkies.

Twinkies not as good as they use to be.

 

[GrayHare]

I guess it's worth watching but I don't know what I'd do if the risk % kept rising. Fortunately, it's way smaller than the Chicxulub asteroid.

 

[sengsational]

I can't wait! This will be great! Just like the movie "Don't Look Up!"

 

[audreyh1]

Well the expectation is that as it nears the estimated chance for collision will drop. Until then we can all be scared!

From yesterday:

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — The threat of a newly discovered asteroid has risen slightly in the past few weeks, as the world’s telescopes rush to track its course. But the chance of an impact is still quite slim.

New calculations suggest there’s a 2% chance the space rock 2024 YR4 will smack Earth in 2032. This also means there’s a 98% chance it will safely pass our planet. The odds of a strike will almost certainly continue to go up and down as the asteroid’s path around the sun is better understood, and astronomers said there’s a good chance the risk likely will drop to zero.

NASA and the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope will observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before the object disappears from view. Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes our way again.

Why asteroid 2024 YR4 is unlikely to hit Earth in 2032 and how scientists keep track

Scientists say the threat of a newly discovered asteroid has risen slightly in the past few weeks, as the world's telescopes rush to track its course.

apnews.com

 

[Fermion]

It'd be fun if we were a little more advanced to nudge it into a capture orbit. Maybe in 100 years or so...

 

[Car-Guy]

 

[swakyaby]

I would enjoy seeing a list of disaster movies of earth-asteroid encounters from best to worst. And yes, Moonfall should be on that list.

 

[homestead]

"When worlds collide" Book and movie

 

[Sunset]

BTD.

Seriously, it’s fun to talk about. But not really much of a concern imo. Additional observations will almost certainly reduce the percentage down to nill.

Or that is what they will tell us, while the special people get on a spacecraft for Mars

 

[Koolau]

BTD.

Seriously, it’s fun to talk about. But not really much of a concern imo. Additional observations will almost certainly reduce the percentage down to nill.

What physical reality suggests that the chances of a hit will go down? Couldn't the chances go up as the orbit is more precisely known?

 

[old medic]

I'm not worried at all..... Bought a 1960s school desk to hide under....

 

[JoeWras]

What physical reality suggests that the chances of a hit will go down? Couldn't the chances go up as the orbit is more precisely known?

It could, but it probably won't, so that's why you keep hearing these reports that it will go down as time passes.

Consider the analogy of the "hurricane cone." 2 days out, you find yourself right on the edge of the cone. In most cases, as time passes, the cone tightens up and you fall out of the cone. But every now and then, you stay on the cone line or get into the cone because the hurricane does something unpredictable.

Fortunately, orbital mechanics is more predictable than hurricane prediction. They just need to get a few better measurements to tighten up the prediction. The 2% factors in extreme observation error. Over time the observation and measurements will get more precise and hopefully there was no significant error. In the very unlikely 2% chance that the errors add up the wrong way for us, you'll see the probability increase. That's when it is time to pay attention. But, that "probably" won't happen, I can say with 98% confidence.