Sounds reasonable. Thanks for the explanation.It could, but it probably won't, so that's why you keep hearing these reports that it will go down as time passes.
Consider the analogy of the "hurricane cone." 2 days out, you find yourself right on the edge of the cone. In most cases, as time passes, the cone tightens up and you fall out of the cone. But every now and then, you stay on the cone line or get into the cone because the hurricane does something unpredictable.
Fortunately, orbital mechanics is more predictable than hurricane prediction. They just need to get a few better measurements to tighten up the prediction. The 2% factors in extreme observation error. Over time the observation and measurements will get more precise and hopefully there was no significant error. In the very unlikely 2% chance that the errors add up the wrong way for us, you'll see the probability increase. That's when it is time to pay attention. But, that "probably" won't happen, I can say with 98% confidence.![]()
My current read:Nah. It's going to be the microbes that kill us all.
Yeah, I’m surprised you didn’t start this thread weeks ago REWahoo!Nope, but I want to go on record that I'm having a great deal of difficulty resisting the urge to post, "I told you so!"
Lucifer's Hammer by David Niven and Jerry Pournelle is a classic. Luckily, I will be too old to bother preparing if the odds start skyrocketing.Oh, goodie! Lots of old science fiction stories and a couple of movies turn into real life.
Yeah. Hale-Bopp was amazing, but a finger could cover it.I was thinking just the opposite of getting an exaggerated risk assessment. In all things astronomical, in my recollection, they've always over hyped. I remember seeing an artists rendering of a comet on the front of Popular Science that took up the entire sky. When it showed up, it was 1/4 of my thumbnail at arms length, and so faint as to be overlooked unless someone told you it was there.
Add "Melancholia" to the list. Kirsten Dunst and Kiefer Sutherland. It is depressing, as the name suggests. As a kid, I loved "When Worlds Collide."I would enjoy seeing a list of disaster movies of earth-asteroid encounters from best to worst. And yes, Moonfall should be on that list.
Actually, prior objects placed on the Torino scale were subsequently removed when further observations refined their orbit. See, e.g., 99942 Apophis - WikipediaThe fact we are being told this far out is amazing. Unfortunately the problem is probably 10 times greater than we are being told. Next update, it will be maybe a 10% chance to hit us and the size will have doubled. Plenty of time after that for them "adjust" their estimates several more times. As with most estimates, the first ones are usually wrong and low.
Nothing new. Religion not required, just hucksters. In 1910, much money was scammed via the selling of "comet pills" and gas masks since the earth was going to pass through the tail of Halley's comet, which was found to have a compound containing some cyanide.OMG, so eight years of here come the religious crazies once again.
As EL Doctorow famously wrote in his novel, City of God, 'How many times is the world going to end, before the world finally comes to and end??'
If the gators don't gotcha the skeeters will.My current read:
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The Mosquito: A Human History of Our Deadliest Predator
The instant New York Times bestseller An international …www.goodreads.com
Ever hear of a little back-water called Pearl Harbor? In terms of nuclear bombs, that's right next door to me. I have thought of it - especially after our false alarm of an incoming ICBM from NorKor. It does make you think. Hey, none of us gets out of here alive. That wouldn't be such a bad way to go - at least at ground zero.If either happen before I die of other causes I hope I'm at ground zero so I don't suffer. I'm not far from MacDill AFB so hopefully they use a big enough bomb to kill me instantly and not by radiation poisoning days or weeks later. Nothing I can do so I'll worry about the things I can control like my WDR.
I suppose if the threat level becomes high enough, the humans could lob something in that direction with a little more persuasion.Maybe a butterly flapping wings will create enough disturbance to move it away.
Ever hear of a little back-water called Pearl Harbor? In terms of nuclear bombs, that's right next door to me. I have thought of it - especially after our false alarm of an incoming ICBM from NorKor. It does make you think. Hey, none of us gets out of here alive. That wouldn't be such a bad way to go - at least at ground zero.
Yeah was 10 blocks away from the World Trade Center on 9/11. Knew 3 guys who perished. It was a crazy time .But the thing about that is - it would in all probability not be just me being zapped. There would be children, young people, and families lost.
I gave this thought one time - and (tried to) compare the thought of me just passing - and the world (or large part of it being destroyed). There was no comparison. It seems that I want the next generations to have their "time in the sun" long after I've departed.
We were very close to Ground Zero during 9/11. The grief was pervasive.
CuteI suppose if the threat level becomes high enough, the humans could lob something in that direction with a little more persuasion.
For their part, the rocket scientists will first be tested on how well they can DOGE a bullet.
Yes, I completely understand what you're saying.But the thing about that is - it would in all probability not be just me being zapped. There would be children, young people, and families lost.
I gave this thought one time - and (tried to) compare the thought of me just passing - and the world (or large part of it being destroyed). There was no comparison. It seems that I want the next generations to have their "time in the sun" long after I've departed.
We were very close to Ground Zero during 9/11. The grief was pervasive.
Yeah was 10 blocks away from the World Trade Center on 9/11. Knew 3 guys who perished. It was a crazy time .
Yes, and Moonfall would be last on that list.I would enjoy seeing a list of disaster movies of earth-asteroid encounters from best to worst. And yes, Moonfall should be on that list.