Asteroid Watch!

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JoeWras said:
It could, but it probably won't, so that's why you keep hearing these reports that it will go down as time passes.

Consider the analogy of the "hurricane cone." 2 days out, you find yourself right on the edge of the cone. In most cases, as time passes, the cone tightens up and you fall out of the cone. But every now and then, you stay on the cone line or get into the cone because the hurricane does something unpredictable.

Fortunately, orbital mechanics is more predictable than hurricane prediction. They just need to get a few better measurements to tighten up the prediction. The 2% factors in extreme observation error. Over time the observation and measurements will get more precise and hopefully there was no significant error. In the very unlikely 2% chance that the errors add up the wrong way for us, you'll see the probability increase. That's when it is time to pay attention. But, that "probably" won't happen, I can say with 98% confidence.;)
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Sounds reasonable. Thanks for the explanation.
 
Every single day a nuclear apocalypse could occur with only minutes of warning... If I want to worry I'll worry about that. We've already had several close calls but one day a mistake will be made or a madman hellbent on destruction will get their wish.

Even a catastrophic asteroid hitting earth would do less to eliminate humanity than just a small fraction of the currently active thermonuclear weapons being detonated on the planet (over highly populated cities)... unless the asteroid was highly radioactive and and then maybe it would be about the same (but still would likely hit a sparsely populated area unlike a nuke).

If either happen before I die of other causes I hope I'm at ground zero so I don't suffer. I'm not far from MacDill AFB so hopefully they use a big enough bomb to kill me instantly and not by radiation poisoning days or weeks later. Nothing I can do so I'll worry about the things I can control like my WDR.
 
The fact we are being told this far out is amazing. Unfortunately the problem is probably 10 times greater than we are being told. Next update, it will be maybe a 10% chance to hit us and the size will have doubled. Plenty of time after that for them "adjust" their estimates several more times. As with most estimates, the first ones are usually wrong and low.
 
I was thinking just the opposite of getting an exaggerated risk assessment. In all things astronomical, in my recollection, they've always over hyped. I remember seeing an artists rendering of a comet on the front of Popular Science that took up the entire sky. When it showed up, it was 1/4 of my thumbnail at arms length, and so faint as to be overlooked unless someone told you it was there.
 
Walt34 said:
Oh, goodie! Lots of old science fiction stories and a couple of movies turn into real life.
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Lucifer's Hammer by David Niven and Jerry Pournelle is a classic. Luckily, I will be too old to bother preparing if the odds start skyrocketing.
 
sengsational said:
I was thinking just the opposite of getting an exaggerated risk assessment. In all things astronomical, in my recollection, they've always over hyped. I remember seeing an artists rendering of a comet on the front of Popular Science that took up the entire sky. When it showed up, it was 1/4 of my thumbnail at arms length, and so faint as to be overlooked unless someone told you it was there.
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Yeah. Hale-Bopp was amazing, but a finger could cover it.

I think this exaggeration comes from the 1910 Halley's comet. It was truly spectacular, covering 45 to 60 degrees of sky.

As a kid, I was very interested in astronomy and almost pursued it as a profession. I remember mentioning this to my grandma, and how I was excited I'd be grown up in 1986 to see Halley's comet. She sat me down and reminisced about the 1910 event (she was 11 years old). She and her sisters went up on the flat roof of a Chicago building and reclined. She said it filled the sky (made big hand waving motions) and it was incredible.

1986 came along and it was a dud. I went out to the middle the everglades and saw a smudge. Who hoo!
 
swakyaby said:
I would enjoy seeing a list of disaster movies of earth-asteroid encounters from best to worst. And yes, Moonfall should be on that list.
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Add "Melancholia" to the list. Kirsten Dunst and Kiefer Sutherland. It is depressing, as the name suggests. As a kid, I loved "When Worlds Collide."
 
Car-Guy said:
The fact we are being told this far out is amazing. Unfortunately the problem is probably 10 times greater than we are being told. Next update, it will be maybe a 10% chance to hit us and the size will have doubled. Plenty of time after that for them "adjust" their estimates several more times. As with most estimates, the first ones are usually wrong and low.
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Actually, prior objects placed on the Torino scale were subsequently removed when further observations refined their orbit. See, e.g., 99942 Apophis - Wikipedia
 
OMG, so eight years of here come the religious crazies once again. :LOL:

As EL Doctorow famously wrote in his novel, City of God, 'How many times is the world going to end, before the world finally comes to and end??'
 
ElizabethT said:
OMG, so eight years of here come the religious crazies once again. :LOL:

As EL Doctorow famously wrote in his novel, City of God, 'How many times is the world going to end, before the world finally comes to and end??'
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Nothing new. Religion not required, just hucksters. In 1910, much money was scammed via the selling of "comet pills" and gas masks since the earth was going to pass through the tail of Halley's comet, which was found to have a compound containing some cyanide.
 
Maybe a butterly flapping wings will create enough disturbance to move it away.
 
FLSUnFIRE said:
If either happen before I die of other causes I hope I'm at ground zero so I don't suffer. I'm not far from MacDill AFB so hopefully they use a big enough bomb to kill me instantly and not by radiation poisoning days or weeks later. Nothing I can do so I'll worry about the things I can control like my WDR.
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Ever hear of a little back-water called Pearl Harbor? In terms of nuclear bombs, that's right next door to me. I have thought of it - especially after our false alarm of an incoming ICBM from NorKor. It does make you think. Hey, none of us gets out of here alive. That wouldn't be such a bad way to go - at least at ground zero.
 
ls99 said:
Maybe a butterly flapping wings will create enough disturbance to move it away.
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I suppose if the threat level becomes high enough, the humans could lob something in that direction with a little more persuasion.

For their part, the rocket scientists will first be tested on how well they can DOGE a bullet.
 
Koolau said:
Ever hear of a little back-water called Pearl Harbor? In terms of nuclear bombs, that's right next door to me. I have thought of it - especially after our false alarm of an incoming ICBM from NorKor. It does make you think. Hey, none of us gets out of here alive. That wouldn't be such a bad way to go - at least at ground zero.
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But the thing about that is - it would in all probability not be just me being zapped. There would be children, young people, and families lost.

I gave this thought one time - and (tried to) compare the thought of me just passing - and the world (or large part of it being destroyed). There was no comparison. It seems that I want the next generations to have their "time in the sun" long after I've departed.

We were very close to Ground Zero during 9/11. The grief was pervasive.
 
MarieIG said:
But the thing about that is - it would in all probability not be just me being zapped. There would be children, young people, and families lost.

I gave this thought one time - and (tried to) compare the thought of me just passing - and the world (or large part of it being destroyed). There was no comparison. It seems that I want the next generations to have their "time in the sun" long after I've departed.

We were very close to Ground Zero during 9/11. The grief was pervasive.
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Yeah was 10 blocks away from the World Trade Center on 9/11. Knew 3 guys who perished. It was a crazy time .
 
bjorn2bwild said:
I suppose if the threat level becomes high enough, the humans could lob something in that direction with a little more persuasion.

For their part, the rocket scientists will first be tested on how well they can DOGE a bullet.
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Cute
 
MarieIG said:
But the thing about that is - it would in all probability not be just me being zapped. There would be children, young people, and families lost.

I gave this thought one time - and (tried to) compare the thought of me just passing - and the world (or large part of it being destroyed). There was no comparison. It seems that I want the next generations to have their "time in the sun" long after I've departed.

We were very close to Ground Zero during 9/11. The grief was pervasive.
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Yes, I completely understand what you're saying.

Following our false alarm, there were videos of young men and women running on UH Manoa campus. I wondered FROM where TO where?

There were heart breaking videos of men dropping their little kids down manways into the sewer system.

One person on Island died of a heart attack. Though it's difficult to ascribe that to the false alarm - it was assumed by most of us.

DW and I felt such a calm that my only negative thought was "What kind of a world are our kids now in for?"
 
Dtail said:
Yeah was 10 blocks away from the World Trade Center on 9/11. Knew 3 guys who perished. It was a crazy time .
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Yes. DH was pretty close too and watched the WTC from the roof of his building. It seemed as if everyone knew someone, or knew someone who lost someone.
 
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