Asteroid Watch!

[aja8888]

I think simply that downplaying the risk by politicians is likely (I would) because if you told everyone it's a high chance of the end of the world. It would be chaos.

Many folks would act to get an early start on death. Others would feel now there is no rules so anarchy is acceptable.
The stock market would probably crash as lots of folks cashed in and bought underground shelters, food, ammo, gold, silver, etc.

Much better and easier to downplay it and hope nothing happens.

True, we would probably have a run on toilet paper again!

 

[Koolau]

If it turns out that it will land, it be the ultimate lawn chair, pop corn and beer spot.
A glorious exit.
Beats hiding in in bunker.

My gut tells me that we'll have a pretty good idea of where it's gonna hit in advance (if it hits.) Rather than the lawn chairs, pop corn and beer, there will more likely be a mass exodus from the area. We know how to evacuate for a hurricane with a week or less notice, so, messy as it might be, I'm guessing folks will move out of the way when the asteroid is a few days or perhaps weeks from hitting.

Likely there will be a zone of potential land-fall that traces an arc on the Earth. Moving north or south of that arc a hundred or two hundred miles should be enough to preserve most human life. According to some accounts, the destruction caused by the Tunguska event was less than 1000 square miles. So being roughly 30+ miles away from the point of impact/explosion might be sufficient, though I'd make it at least a couple of hundred miles, myself.

If landfall will be in the Pacific, we may prevail upon DW's niece who lives up-slope on Haleakala.

My gut tells me it will be easier to avoid the catastrophe than to plant one's self at ground zero. By the time ground zero is known precisely, it will be too late to get there with one's lawn chair but YMMV.

 

[aaronc879]

The only time a meaningful asteroid hit land on Earth in any of our lifetimes was the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013. It landed in a low population area but still caused a lot of damage with 1500 injured. This one is 2-5 times the size. If it lands in a city it will be very, very bad.

 

[bjorn2bwild]

The odds just ticked up a bit with the latest observations.
A few quotes from the article -

NASA has upgraded the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1 per cent, or about a 1-in-32 chance, the highest odds yet of collision.

This steady increase does not necessarily mean that the asteroid is actually more likely to hit Earth, however, and the odds may yet come down. “Just because it’s gone up in the last week, doesn’t mean that it’s going to continue to do that,” says Hugh Lewis at the University of Southampton, UK.

But we are running out of time to forecast the asteroid’s risk. One issue is that 2024 YR4 will fly behind the sun in April, placing it out of the view of most Earth-based telescopes.

Once the asteroid does fly out of view, it is unlikely that we will gain any more information before it comes into view again in 2028. However, astronomers could comb through past data to uncover previously overlooked observations of the asteroid, which would help refine its trajectory.

Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 have reached new high

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but as astronomers make more observations about its trajectory, the odds of a collision seem to be increasing

www.newscientist.com

 

[Gumby]

This article has a map of the likeliest line of potential impact based on the most recent data. Of course, further observation could shift the line as well as the probability.

Newly Discovered Asteroid Has Slight Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

The discovery marks only the second time that an asteroid's impact risk has reached greater than a 1% chance.

skyandtelescope.org

Large cities under the line appear to include Bogota, Colombia; Lagos, Nigeria; Accra, Ghana; and Mumbai, India.

 

[GrayHare]

A benign hit could lift enough dust into the atmosphere to cool the planet for awhile. I saw a mention of using a nuke to do similar, but did not read the details.

 

[audreyh1]

This article has a map of the likeliest line of potential impact based on the most recent data. Of course, further observation could shift the line as well as the probability.

Newly Discovered Asteroid Has Slight Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

The discovery marks only the second time that an asteroid's impact risk has reached greater than a 1% chance.

skyandtelescope.org

Large cities under the line appear to include Bogota, Colombia; Lagos, Nigeria; Accra, Ghana; and Mumbai, India.

Interesting. Just super early yet.

Lots of ocean along that path.

 

[aja8888]

I'm going to put this event on my calendar.

 

[audreyh1]

I'm going to put this event on my calendar.

I suppose your electronic calculator as no 2032 paper calendars yet!

 

[aja8888]

I suppose your electronic calculator as no 2032 paper calendars yet!

Absolutely! on my newish iPhone!

 

[audreyh1]

What day in 2032?

 

[aja8888]

What day in 2032?

I'll put it in Jan 1 as a reminder this event is forthcoming!

Hopefully, I'll still be on this side of the grass when that reminder dings me!

 

[audreyh1]

I'll put it in Jan 1 as a reminder this event is forthcoming!

Good idea!

 

[Gumby]

Interesting. Just super early yet.

Lots of ocean along that path.

There's a lot of ocean everywhere. We live on a water world (~70% of the surface area).

 

[MuirWannabe]

What day in 2032?

December 22nd is when it will fly by

 

[audreyh1]

Thanks. Sounds like an exciting year!!!

Astronomers on Tuesday said that the asteroid designated 2024 YR4 had become the most likely sizable space rock ever forecast to impact planet Earth. The object, first detected in December, is 130 to 300 feet long and expected to make a very close pass of the planet in 2032. Its odds of impacting Earth on Dec. 22 of that year currently stand at 3.1 percent.

From Will That Asteroid Strike Earth? Risk Level Rises to Highest Ever Recorded.

 

[SecondAttempt]

So that's the fix for global warming!

Lol, I'm science based and believe climate changes are happening based on human behavior. But I'm not panicking, there are plenty of catastrophic events like asteroid impacts or volcanic eruptions that can throw a wrench in the works!

 

[Koolau]

Just checked the actuarial charts and I have only about a 50% chance of being around for the big event, should it happen. Not too many good things about dying, but missing an asteroid encounter just might be one of the few.

 

[SecondAttempt]

This article has a map of the likeliest line of potential impact based on the most recent data. Of course, further observation could shift the line as well as the probability.

Newly Discovered Asteroid Has Slight Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

The discovery marks only the second time that an asteroid's impact risk has reached greater than a 1% chance.

skyandtelescope.org

Large cities under the line appear to include Bogota, Colombia; Lagos, Nigeria; Accra, Ghana; and Mumbai, India.

In other words...did I say that...we might see a lot less scammer activity for a few years! And cocaine prices might increase.

 

[Winemaker]

I'll take my first RMD on December 23.

 

[CaptTom]

I think simply that downplaying the risk by politicians is likely

So far they've been mostly silent. They've allowed the scientists to report the facts, and the media to hype them.

But I do see your point. A "head in the sand" approach or an outright denial about an impending crisis would not be out of character for some politicians.

 

[Koolau]

So far they've been mostly silent. They've allowed the scientists to report the facts, and the media to hype them.

But I do see your point. A "head in the sand" approach or an outright denial about an impending crisis would not be out of character for some politicians.

In order of who to listen to in light of a potential asteroid disaster? I'd put politicians pretty close to the bottom. Some place just above astrologers.

 

[marko]

In a sense, cyanobacteria were the first major polluters and caused a mass extinction of other organisms.

Yes, I read the book "Global Brain" about 40 years ago. Fascinating. He takes you from the big bang all the way to the internet.

He claims that the biggest ecological disaster was when bacterial life forms began converting earth's 100% CO2 into oxygen.

 

[marko]

Just checked the actuarial charts and I have only about a 50% chance of being around for the big event, should it happen. Not too many good things about dying, but missing an asteroid encounter just might be one of the few.

Are you kidding? This would be one of the most awesome things ever to witness! Especially if it happened somewhere else far away.......
I'll only be 80 so I'm psyched.

 

[Koolau]

Yes, I read the book "Global Brain" about 40 years ago. Fascinating. He takes you from the big bang all the way to the internet.

He claims that the biggest ecological disaster was when bacterial life forms began converting earth's 100% CO2 into oxygen.

When I hear of how badly we are treating the planet, my mind goes in this direction. The natural order of things is for the "smartest and fittest" to take over, exploit and eventually destroy the current "order." If we make the world uninhabitable for humans, don't worry. Something will come along to replace us. Pleasant thought.