BlackRock sees 'exceptionalism' powering US stocks higher in 2025

[target2019]

I think I read an human-written article here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blac...ering-us-stocks-higher-in-2025-100025443.html

I'm on the fence if it's click bait or interesting forecasts.

For some reason the graphic content is blocked by some browsers, but here is the crux. Different versions of this graphic seem to crop up frequently on Yahoo Finance. And this is a Yahoo Finance article.

So, my question is for active investors (the sub-forum specifies this is active-only discussion. Do you take into account generalized forecasts, or is there something more specific you hang your investing hat on?

 

[braumeister]

Is "exceptionalism" the new "irrational exuberance"?

 

[target2019]

Is "exceptionalism" the new "irrational exuberance"?

Eventually we'll find out, I suppose.

It could be an attempt to extend this historical observation.

It originates in the observations and writings of French political scientist and historian Alexis de Tocqueville, most notably in his comparison of the United States with Great Britain and his native France. American exceptionalism - Wikipedia.

As an active investor, how do you feel about the year-end forecasts in the graphic? DId anything in the artice catch your eye?

 

[Montecfo]

I'm glad when the investment banks forecast equity price growth. Bur I do not rely on those at all.

I usually develop my own view of the markets separately and then invest accordingly.

 

[audreyh1]

Seems like the same old same old. I generally ignore.

Yardeni is still around!

 

[Gumby]

I am down to only one individual stock now, so my opinion should be discounted accordingly, but in my days as an active investor I was far more concerned with the individual economic milieu in which my holdings participated than in the overall trend of the S&P 500. I had stocks that tanked in a big bull market and stocks that shined in a bear market. For me, it was all about the traditional metrics for buying, holding or selling a particular equity that I first learned by reading Benjamin Graham.

 

[Midpack]

Seems like the same old same old. I generally ignore.

Yardeni is still around!

+1. I can't remember ANY time in my investing history (starting 1987) when they weren't bulls and bears making almost equally convincing recommendations, sounding alarms. I learned to ignore them long ago, and it's worked out splendidly so far...

A stopped clock is right twice a day, but only twice. If other readers don't understand, remember Elaine Garzarelli?

While working as a stock analyst at Shearson Lehman, she became known for predicting Black Monday, the stock market crash of 1987. Ms. Garzarelli, a research analyst and money manager for Shearson Lehman Brothers, Inc., turned bearish on Sept. 9. By Oct. 12, when she appeared on Cable News Network’s “Money Line” program, she was fiercely bearish, predicting an imminent collapse in the stock market. She gave USA Today a similarly dire forecast the next day.”

Garzarelli's fund, Smith Barney Shearson Sector Analysis, was established just before the crash. Thanks to all the free publicity she got from being interviewed as a prognosticator, investors soon poured $700 million into this fund. In 1988, Garzarelli's fund was the worst-performing fund among growth stock funds. From 1988 to 1990, Garzarelli's fund underperformed the S&P 500 average by about 43 percent. Even the few investors who were in her fund before the crash in 1987 (when Garzarelli's fund outperformed the S&P 500 by about 26 percent) still lost. What she saved her investors by avoiding the crash she lost back (and then some) in the years that followed.

 

[audreyh1]

Yes, I’m old enough to remember her.

 

[FREE866]

Couple things.

It seems like consensus for most big firms every year is up 8-12%. So I take any predictions with a grain of salt. Historically, the market annually very rarely does close to its average of 10-11%.

Yardeni---I'm sure hes a smart guy , but what sticks out in my head was his conviction that we were going to have a complete disaster with Y2K...anyone remember that?

Garzarelli--yeah her funds never did so great, but as far as a general direction of where the market is going she was and still is pretty good.

 

[audreyh1]

Yardeni---I'm sure hes a smart guy , but what sticks out in my head was his conviction that we were going to have a complete disaster with Y2K...anyone remember that?

He must have gone very conservative, which actually wasn’t a bad thing as all the equity markets didn’t do well in 2000 when the dot coms started going “poof”.

Many folks thought it was going to be a disaster. I think many of us woke up on New Year’s Day 2000 and thought - wow, we’re still here! Have power, internet, etc.

 

[FREE866]

He must have gone very conservative, which actually wasn’t a bad thing as all the equity markets didn’t do well in 2000 when the dot coms started going “poof”.

Many folks thought it was going to be a disaster. I think many of us woke up on New Year’s Day 2000 and thought - wow, we’re still here! Have power, internet, etc.

Fair point, but I don't even recall it being a "market call" it was more like what you said elevators werent gonna work etc lol

 

[audreyh1]

Right. I remember well.

The coders came through. Critical systems got fixed.

 

[luckydude]

Is "exceptionalism" the new "irrational exuberance"?

Well, this time is different . Famous last words.

I just shake my head in wonder as the market seemingly hits a new high every trading day. What's driving this, how high is it going to go, and when will the next (inevitable) crash happen?

I have no crystal ball, but I have my popcorn ready

 

[luckydude]

I think I read an human-written article here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blac...ering-us-stocks-higher-in-2025-100025443.html

I'm on the fence if it's click bait or interesting forecasts.

For some reason the graphic content is blocked by some browsers, but here is the crux. Different versions of this graphic seem to crop up frequently on Yahoo Finance. And this is a Yahoo Finance article.

So, my question is for active investors (the sub-forum specifies this is active-only discussion. Do you take into account generalized forecasts, or is there something more specific you hang your investing hat on?

View attachment 53219

Well, when all the "experts" are predicting market going up, it's time to sell

DW and I don't bother with forecasts as the so-call "experts" are generally very bad at predicting things. We generally buy and hold index funds, but I will occasionally sell in a small % to lock in some gains in my retirement accounts if I think the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself. The decision is not based on any observable metrics or numbers and it's more of a gut feeling. Did this just last week.

 

[Al18]

BCA Research says the SP500 will end 2025 at 4100

Warren Buffet is sitting on 325 Billion in cash
Warren Buffett is sitting on over $325 billion cash as Berkshire Hathaway keeps selling Apple stock

 

[Koolau]

Well, when all the "experts" are predicting market going up, it's time to sell

I always heard it was time to sell when your barber and dog-walker started giving you stock tips.

 

[FREE866]

BCA Research says the SP500 will end 2025 at 4100

Warren Buffet is sitting on 325 Billion in cash
Warren Buffett is sitting on over $325 billion cash as Berkshire Hathaway keeps selling Apple stock

I have no idea what market will do next year , but as far as I can see from their website BCA Research doesn't manage any money. They just bark out predictions via a newsletter.

 

[target2019]

BCA Research says the SP500 will end 2025 at 4100

Warren Buffet is sitting on 325 Billion in cash
Warren Buffett is sitting on over $325 billion cash as Berkshire Hathaway keeps selling Apple stock

Interesting video. What did you think of his prediction for 4,100? He mentioned reasons for the prediction. Do you think there's any substance in his thoughts?

For your naked link about Buffett, I suppose your thinking is that if he's buildling a cash war chest, he's expecting a correction and subsequent buying opportunity. Or is it that he just is not as interested in tech in general, as his deceased partner was?

 

[target2019]

Well, when all the "experts" are predicting market going up, it's time to sell

DW and I don't bother with forecasts as the so-call "experts" are generally very bad at predicting things. We generally buy and hold index funds, but I will occasionally sell in a small % to lock in some gains in my retirement accounts if I think the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself. The decision is not based on any observable metrics or numbers and it's more of a gut feeling. Did this just last week.

I appreciate the sentiment. I have a gut feeling too, for 2025. But I haven't executed any sells, and have enough in cash to take advantage of spectacular opportunities that arise.

Last correction I was caught with my pants up, with suspenders for extra safety. Not much cash was available for trading.

 

[Letj]

Well, when all the "experts" are predicting market going up, it's time to sell

DW and I don't bother with forecasts as the so-call "experts" are generally very bad at predicting things. We generally buy and hold index funds, but I will occasionally sell in a small % to lock in some gains in my retirement accounts if I think the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself. The decision is not based on any observable metrics or numbers and it's more of a gut feeling. Did this just last week.

Curious. What do you reinvest in or do you keep the cash sitting in your account? My issue would be where to reinvest to continue growth.

 

[DrRoy]

I put no faith in forecasts of this kind. If any of the above ones is correct I will be plenty happy.

 

[Dtail]

I always heard it was time to sell when your barber and dog-walker started giving you stock tips.

In New York, it was the shoe shine guy.

 

[target2019]

Curious. What do you reinvest in or do you keep the cash sitting in your account? My issue would be where to reinvest to continue growth.

Active investors are probably content to let their proceeds lay in the sweep, at least for awhile.

When I'm not in a trading mood, I buy shares of money market. That way if I never execute another trade I'll at least harvest a few dollars of interest.

 

[Al18]

I think shares are too expensive. The SP500 PE ratio is currently over 31, while the historical mean is 16 according to S&P 500 PE Ratio - Multpl

I’m hoping we see a 20% drop for a few months in 2025, so I can do a little buying. I’m also hopeful the stock market partially recovers.

 

[Gumby]

The S&P 500 forecast is necessarily driven by the forecast for the top 10 companies -- AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSAL, GOOGL, BKRB, GOOG, AVOG -- which together make up almost 36% of the index. All these companies, save Berkshire Hathaway, are tech companies. Their expected performance tells you nothing about the possible performance of, say, Mohawk Industries (MHK), which makes flooring and rugs, and which constitutes a mere 0.01% of the S&P500. So, if you do own MHK individually, you wouldn't glean any particular intelligence from these S&P500 forecasts.