BlackRock sees 'exceptionalism' powering US stocks higher in 2025

[luckydude]

Curious. What do you reinvest in or do you keep the cash sitting in your account? My issue would be where to reinvest to continue growth.

I put the cash in MM fund and reinvest it into the same index fund when there's a drop. A bit of market timing if you well. I rarely do this except when the market has a huge run up that recently. I think I've done it maybe 4-5 times over the last 10 years. I can't really say I would have done better or worse had I stayed in the market full-time, so I guess motivation is mostly it's psychological.

The funny thing is I likely won't ever need to draw from my retirement accounts, so this exercise is really academic at the end of the day.

 

[Diogenes]

Interesting video. What did you think of his prediction for 4,100? He mentioned reasons for the prediction. Do you think there's any substance in his thoughts?

His analysis is sound; the market is stretched, especially US large-cap growth. But as with any forecast, if it were actionable, then the "smart money" would have already acted on it, obviating the whole theme. Then again, I am only a rude interloper in this thread, as I'm a religiously passive investor... always fully invested, [nearly] always in index funds, and I never sell.

 

[target2019]

His analysis is sound; the market is stretched, especially US large-cap growth. But as with any forecast, if it were actionable, then the "smart money" would have already acted on it, obviating the whole theme. Then again, I am only a rude interloper in this thread, as I'm a religiously passive investor... always fully invested, [nearly] always in index funds, and I never sell.

What would be a possible example of "smart money" already acting on the forecast? In the graphic posted, the top projection is something like 15% returns. That would turn out to be more than a 50% drop from this year's S&P500 overall return.

 

[target2019]

Indices that weight stocks by price instead of market cap and adjust for the leading tech giants show that the U.S. has outperformed the rest of the world by more than 4-to-1 since 2009, he explained.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mother-bubbles-us-sucking-money-215345592.html

This really hits home with investors disappointed with int'l returns. But there must be some int'l winners who will excel in 2025.

 

[Koolau]

In New York, it was the shoe shine guy.

Heh, heh, in ANY state - If I give you a financial tip - do the opposite!

 

[Diogenes]

What would be a possible example of "smart money" already acting on the forecast? In the graphic posted, the top projection is something like 15% returns. That would turn out to be more than a 50% drop from this year's S&P500 overall return.

One example would be institutional investors actively selling into the rally, while Joe Sixpack keeps buying. The clever people would realize that the market is frothy, and would reduce their equity exposure accordingly. Or potentially load-up on options with downside protection. Is either of these happening?

 

[Lsbcal]

So far this year the portfolio gain is somewhat more then the end of 2019. Of course, back in December 2019 there was only 2 months or so to go before all hell broke loose (pandemic). So as always never confident.

Really fantastic and am eating even better and buying stuff for the house, travel, etc. Tipped the hair stylist nicely today. Tonight we had a great dinner of King Salmon. Bought some new chairs at nose bleed prices.

My only way to handle this in the portfolio is to define the max equity allocation and cut it down when it gets 1% over that. Have had to do that several times this year with the last time being Monday of this week.

I eagerly listen to the latest smart investor advice but do not act on it ... Yardeni, Siegel, etc. I don't pay attention to the doomsters. Generally it pays to be optimistic ... until it doesn't.

Any great thoughts on dealing with an exceptional market?

 

[Out of Steam]

Right. I remember well.

The coders came through. Critical systems got fixed.

At the time, I had a job with access to some inside information related to technology and defense. They were quite confident in the lead-up to New Year's Day 2000.

We were told to just have a couple of hundred bucks in cash, the week's groceries bought, and a full tank of gas. Any problems that did happen would be over quickly.

 

[Lsbcal]

Here is the last decade for the SP500:

I didn't see the 2020 pandemic coming. Nor did I see the 2022 SP500 decline coming. But I did sell bonds in early Jan 2022, his finest hour (very Churchillian in a small way).

I am guessing there will be some tax gain selling in early January but could be totally wrong.

I cannot think of a good strategy other then what I'm doing.