Boglehead Core Principles - Sound Theory?

[big-papa]

He was on the BH forum as well if I'm not mistaken...

Yep - I think so. His website was still active for a while, too, but I haven't bothered to look for a really long time.

 

[Yegey]

Frankly every forum has its crazies. I am pretty sure this is true for this forum. Personally I have learned quite a lot over the years. I have been investing for a long time but is constantly learning something new.

That said my investment portfolio hasn’t change that much over the decades even with new knowledge there is no actionable item. I don’t know what that means.

 

[imjustawarrior]

That said my investment portfolio hasn’t change that much over the decades even with new knowledge there is no actionable item. I don’t know what that means.

That means the BH philosophy is working.

My portfolio has changed very little. I started there about 15 years ago and settled on a 80/20 three fund portfolio. It stayed unchanged until I went to a 75/25 three fund portfolio about 8 years ago. I plan on staying at 75/25 for quite some time.

 

[Diogenes]

So when I describe risk in my post above, the event is a decision to sell at a loss, and the probability is how likely I am to make that decision. This way of thinking puts the focus on what we can control, and the context that drives our decisions. Of course the future is unknown and we can't control everything, and the risks remain.

That's the classic scenario, of when volatility morphs into risk, for personal reasons.

Smith wants to buy a house, but feels unready. His time-frame is about 8 years from now. Not wishing to abide opportunity-costs, he puts the money slated for the eventual purchase into an S&P 500 index fund, instead of treasury bills or CDs. Well, it so happens, that he does so, in 2001. 8 years later, it's 2009. Smith is now ready to buy a house, but his money isn't. The wrenching volatility that the market has experienced in the intervening years, has for Smith become an actual risk... he has less money now, than he had in 2001. He is selling at a loss.

But then Smith discovers that his great-great grandfather made an investment in the Massachusetts Investors Trust - the first mutual fund - in 1929. Lousy timing, right? Just months before the Great Crash! GG-Grandpa Smith was so disconsolate with the volatility, that he never touched the money, and died without ever drawing upon it. The generations passed, and 80 years later, in 2009, Smith's estate attorney announces the happy news, that GG-Grandpa's account is still active, as MITTX, at Fidelity... and has grown, well... massively since 1929, even adjusting for inflation. Smith liquidates the account, and buys a house - 100% for cash.

 

[TheWizard]

That's the classic scenario, of when volatility morphs into risk, for personal reasons.

Smith wants to buy a house, but feels unready. His time-frame is about 8 years from now. Not wishing to abide opportunity-costs, he puts the money slated for the eventual purchase into an S&P 500 index fund, instead of treasury bills or CDs. Well, it so happens, that he does so, in 2001. 8 years later, it's 2009. Smith is now ready to buy a house, but his money isn't. The wrenching volatility that the market has experienced in the intervening years, has for Smith become an actual risk... he has less money now, than he had in 2001. He is selling at a loss.

But then Smith discovers that his great-great grandfather made an investment in the Massachusetts Investors Trust - the first mutual fund - in 1929. Lousy timing, right? Just months before the Great Crash! GG-Grandpa Smith was so disconsolate with the volatility, that he never touched the money, and died without ever drawing upon it. The generations passed, and 80 years later, in 2009, Smith's estate attorney announces the happy news, that GG-Grandpa's account is still active, as MITTX, as Fidelity... and has grown, well... massively since 1929, even adjusting for inflation. Smith liquidates the account, and buys a house - 100% for cash.

You are reasonably good at writing Fairy Tales...

 

[TickTock]

Again I trot-out my convenient strawmen, Smith and Jones. Both are heavily allocated to equity index funds. Both are absolutely aghast during the next bear market. Smith caves under pressure, and sells his stocks near the bottom. Jones becomes a sobbing sniveling carcass of helpless flesh, but in his very helplessness, he disassociates himself from his portfolio, taking zero actions. Months pass, then years. Smith has suffered grievous losses. Jones is doing fine, in terms of his portfolio... but he’s too shaken to ever spend a nickel, and has no confidence in himself, his money, his very sense of being.

Allow me to offer a third perspective. TickTock and DW are both w*rking, with an 80% allocation to equity index funds. A bear market comes (as they do). TickTock and DW are enthusiastic that they are now buying equities on sale! Years pass - TickTock and DW are doing fine financially and have confidence in themselves.

 

[Yegey]

That means the BH philosophy is working.

My portfolio has changed very little. I started there about 15 years ago and settled on a 80/20 three fund portfolio. It stayed unchanged until I went to a 75/25 three fund portfolio about 8 years ago. I plan on staying at 75/25 for quite some time.

Ironically this portfolio was created before bogleheads forum existed. Before Bogleheads, there were passive investment forums. I actually had several years where I tried different things until I settled on index fund. I suppose it just felt right and resistant to change. I did add about 30% bond may be 5 to 7 years ago.

 

[JBTX]

I used to be tempted to read BH every year or two, but I have outgrown that. The posts are often self-rightous and almost always boring for anyone (like me) who has decades of investing experience. I get it that many enjoy wallowing in that pond, but it's not for me.

Yeah I generally don’t spend a lot of time in investing threads. Once you have an understanding of the general principles it just becomes repetitive. I’m more likely to go through personal finance subjects like estate planning.

There tends to be a more serious tone there and at times a bit argumentative. My theory is that is partly because the forum is very tightly moderated and anything deviating even slightly from core topics is quickly shut down and tends to squash any sense of community. Having said that I’m more likely to find topics I’m interested in there than here.

 

[Yegey]

Yeah I generally don’t spend a lot of time in investing threads. Once you have an understanding of the general principles it just becomes repetitive. I’m more likely to go through personal finance subjects like estate planning.

There tends to be a more serious tone there and at times a bit argumentative. My theory is that is partly because the forum is very tightly moderated and anything deviating even slightly from core topics is quickly shut down and tends to squash any sense of community. Having said that I’m more likely to find topics I’m interested in there than here.

The rational minder forum seems more technical than BH. I haven’t found a good forum for estate planning.

 

[Koolau]

That apparently happened here twenty years ago during the h o c u s years...

It was like yesterday. I was only a guest at the time and wasn't sure I wanted to join in those days.

 

[big-papa]

Yeah I generally don’t spend a lot of time in investing threads. Once you have an understanding of the general principles it just becomes repetitive. I’m more likely to go through personal finance subjects like estate planning.

There tends to be a more serious tone there and at times a bit argumentative. My theory is that is partly because the forum is very tightly moderated and anything deviating even slightly from core topics is quickly shut down and tends to squash any sense of community. Having said that I’m more likely to find topics I’m interested in there than here.

Yep - very different vibes I'd say between the 2 forums and, for me at least, both have their place. In terms of investing, I probably learned a lot more there. In terms of more of a sense of community, this place wins hands-down.

And if you want a 3rd vibe, there's always rationalreminder.ca Some of the really old-time bogleheads members who left the bogleheads community are still active there. I played there for a while, but there were just too many topics that weren't of interest to me. Still, I found a few things of interest. But I almost never go there anymore.

For me, at least, investing was more of a journey that where I occasionally made refinements as I learned more. Trying my best to pass on that knowledge to the kiddo.

Cheers.

 

[Yegey]

Yep - very different vibes I'd say between the 2 forums and, for me at least, both have their place. In terms of investing, I probably learned a lot more there. In terms of more of a sense of community, this place wins hands-down.

And if you want a 3rd vibe, there's always rationalreminder.ca Some of the really old-time bogleheads members who left the bogleheads community are still active there. I played there for a while, but there were just too many topics that weren't of interest to me. Still, I found a few things of interest. But I almost never go there anymore.

For me, at least, investing was more of a journey that where I occasionally made refinements as I learned more. Trying my best to pass on that knowledge to the kiddo.

Cheers.

The rational minder is probably the most hardcore and the most geeky forum. On BH I often feel like an idiot surrounded by people with different technical knowledge. On rational minded it’s even more so. I haven’t been on that much but people seem pretty nice there.

I wonder what is a good forum for estate planning?

 

[olyveoil]

If it truly goes off the rails, somebody will report the post or even the entire thread and the moderators will lock it. The worst offenders ultimately get banned.

I got banned.
I used Jack Bogle's verbatim words relative to dividends. Hurt some feelings. I take my ban as a badge of honor.

 

[Diogenes]

The rational minder is probably the most hardcore and the most geeky forum. On BH I often feel like an idiot surrounded by people with different technical knowledge. On rational minded it’s even more so. I haven’t been on that much but people seem pretty nice there.

Never heard of this "rational" place, but over on BH I enjoy technical discussions about investing. There are some folks there from the academic finance community, who actually post links to their papers, and then discussions ensue. Also a handful of well-known internet personalities in the investment and early retirement realm (yes, really) who are often eloquent writers and delectable verbal sparring partners.

E-R seems to be more about "How much I love retirement and how my only regret is that I didn't retire sooner", with advice to prospects to "go run FireCalc, and if it says >95% odds, go ahead and submit your notice to HR". All lovely sentiments, but frankly I was hoping for a bit more out of Schopenhauer or Camus, on what it's all about, why are we here, what do we owe to the world, and so on. Should Sisyphus retire? Has he exhausted his human capital? Maybe spend more time with Mrs. Sisyphus? The world will never know....

 

[big-papa]

The rational minder forum seems more technical than BH. I haven’t found a good forum for estate planning.

Significantly more so.
But also delves more into individual stocks and other non BH types of investments as well..

 

[JBTX]

The rational minder is probably the most hardcore and the most geeky forum. On BH I often feel like an idiot surrounded by people with different technical knowledge. On rational minded it’s even more so. I haven’t been on that much but people seem pretty nice there.

I wonder what is a good forum for estate planning?

While certainly not the primary focus, estate planning threads on BH are fairly common, and there are several estate planning attorneys who post there and often weigh in

There are a couple of fairly new wiki pages on the subject (which I contributed to )

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Estate_planning

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Trusts

 

[big-papa]

Regarding being banned, what I've seen are both permanent bans and temporary bans. Even some well-known members have received temporary bans such as Jim Dahle (White Coat Investor) and Rick Ferri.

Bogleheads on Investing with Dr. Jim Dahle – Episode 19

Dr. Jim Dahle is a practicing board-certified emergency physician, long-time Boglehead, and author of The White Coat Investor: A Doctor’s Guide to Personal Finance and Investing. He is also the sole proprietor of the most popular personal finance site for those who wear the white coat, The White...

boglecenter.net

Now the moderators don't announce when this happens to somebody. There are of course nearly instant bans from newcomers, including the deletion of all posts, if they're obvious trolls, spammers or financial advisors or any businesses who are advertising. But for others who were around longer, if you suspect they were banned, you can look through their posts and pretty quickly get a read of the tone of their posts, especially some of their last ones. And while whatever final post got them banned was likely deleted, it's oftentimes not hard to imagine that some of these members would have eventually crossed a line.

The forum policies are pretty clear, though I suspect few members have ever read them. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules

It's important to note that the forum is privately owned and an owner can ultimately make the rules. Joining the forum means you've agreed to abide by their rules.

Cheers

 

[Markola]

It's a good start. But, the unmitigated dogma of some of the bogleheads make them insufferable.

Oh, there’s plenty of investment dogma here, too, rigidly and officially enforced. Generational leadership evolution will either solve it organically or this forum will surely wither, and something else will replace it.

 

[Yegey]

Regarding being banned, what I've seen are both permanent bans and temporary bans. Even some well-known members have received temporary bans such as Jim Dahle (White Coat Investor) and Rick Ferri.

Bogleheads on Investing with Dr. Jim Dahle – Episode 19

Dr. Jim Dahle is a practicing board-certified emergency physician, long-time Boglehead, and author of The White Coat Investor: A Doctor’s Guide to Personal Finance and Investing. He is also the sole proprietor of the most popular personal finance site for those who wear the white coat, The White...

boglecenter.net

Now the moderators don't announce when this happens to somebody. There are of course nearly instant bans from newcomers, including the deletion of all posts, if they're obvious trolls, spammers or financial advisors or any businesses who are advertising. But for others who were around longer, if you suspect they were banned, you can look through their posts and pretty quickly get a read of the tone of their posts, especially some of their last ones. And while whatever final post got them banned was likely deleted, it's oftentimes not hard to imagine that some of these members would have eventually crossed a line.

The forum policies are pretty clear, though I suspect few members have ever read them. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules

It's important to note that the forum is privately owned and an owner can ultimately make the rules. Joining the forum means you've agreed to abide by their rules.

Cheers

I heard that Jim Dahle was banned because he wrote about it. I guess the ban was temporary since he is a regular poster. I didn't know Rick Ferri was banned. Not sure what would get them banned, perhaps solicitation? I have gotten notices from moderators in the past, but I don't think I have done anything that could get me banned.

This forums seems to have handed out a ban, too based on the threads I am on. I don't know the details, but I notice certain tools are banned and some poster that has something to do with magic (I have no idea)? I guess every forum has its rule just as you said.

 

[Yegey]

Oh, there’s plenty of investment dogma here, too, rigidly and officially enforced. Generational leadership evolution will either solve it organically or this forum will surely wither, and something else will replace it.

Sometimes, the site goes away due to some other factors. I have know several boards that got sold.

 

[SecondCor521]

This forums seems to have handed out a ban, too based on the threads I am on. I don't know the details, but I notice certain tools are banned and some poster that has something to do with magic (I have no idea)? I guess every forum has its rule just as you said.

The tool is not banned, however if you type it's name in a post here it'll get changed to asterisks. I don't understand the issue there but I know it exists. It may have something to do with the developer of that tool copying FIREcalc inappropriately. (FIREcalc and this forum are connected.)

The poster you're referring to was a member here a long long time ago. He could be nice but he was also unequivocally a massive and infinitely stubborn troll. He could sound smart but his advice was persistently unwise and irresponsible. His username likewise gets changed to asterisks if you use it in a post. Other people may have been permanently banned from this site, but his is the only user name which gets the asterisk treatment as far as I know.

 

[Yegey]

The tool is not banned, however if you type it's name in a post here it'll get changed to asterisks. I don't understand the issue there but I know it exists. It may have something to do with the developer of that tool copying FIREcalc inappropriately. (FIREcalc and this forum are connected.)

The poster you're referring to was a member here a long long time ago. He could be nice but he was also unequivocally a massive and infinitely stubborn troll. He could sound smart but his advice was persistently unwise and irresponsible. His username likewise gets changed to asterisks if you use it in a post. Other people may have been permanently banned from this site, but his is the only user name which gets the asterisk treatment as far as I know.

Thanks, I believe something like Ficalc also would probably be in the same boat, but perhaps the creator didn't post as much here or may be the creator solicited, which would get you in trouble on BH.

It's funny that I managed to encounter the two asterisk block in the short time since I first sign up here. If you didn't tell me that this is rare. I would have assume that people were regularly blocked and asterisk here. I was trying to tread carefully in case this is the case.

 

[Diogenes]

I heard that Jim Dahle was banned because he wrote about it. I guess the ban was temporary since he is a regular poster. I didn't know Rick Ferri was banned. Not sure what would get them banned, perhaps solicitation?

I can't speak to any factual history, but Jim Dahle is an eloquent writer, who occasionally gets passionate (even acerbic) if fending off confrontational posts. That is of course not without risks. Even so, I enjoyed (and continue to enjoy) replying to his posts, and his counter-replies. As with most good writers, he has nuanced perspective... for example, what it means to retire, where in particular cases "work" might lie along the spectrum from rewarding to drudgery, when to splurge, and so on.

His path is the second of what I term "the big three". (1) is getting a good but not great job right at ~20, saving fanatically and investing. (2) is being in debt for advanced education, then hitting the big-and-stable job at 30-35 and making up for lost ground. (3) is living what might be termed a lower middle class life, until finding a windfall job for some number of years, then burning out in middle-age and seeking FIRE.

(1) is an engineer at NASA, hired as a GS-7 and soon reaching GS-13. (2) is the medical doctor. (3) is the liberal arts major who picks up software skills, treads water in IT for a while, then discovers AI and now makes $700K/year at Facebook.

What amazes me, both here and at Bogleheads, is how category (1) is dwindling, but (3) is burgeoning. Why is that?

 

[big-papa]

The rational minder is probably the most hardcore and the most geeky forum. On BH I often feel like an idiot surrounded by people with different technical knowledge. On rational minded it’s even more so. I haven’t been on that much but people seem pretty nice there.

I wonder what is a good forum for estate planning?

Yeah I read and participated in rational reminder for a while and 100% agree on the geekiness of it. There are some really long term bogleheads who were of the more analytical types that now do almost all of their posting on rational reminder now. My main issue with rational reminder is that it casts a much wider net on investment types than I'm interested in, including individual stocks. I got what I needed from it, so I don't visit there much anymore.

For some specific questions about estate planning, especially the legal aspects, poster bsteiner over on bogleheads (an attorney who specializes in this) seem to be the expert on this topic.

Cheers.

 

[VanWinkle]

Yeah I read and participated in rational reminder for a while and 100% agree on the geekiness of it. There are some really long term bogleheads who were of the more analytical types that now do almost all of their posting on rational reminder now. My main issue with rational reminder is that it casts a much wider net on investment types than I'm interested in, including individual stocks. I got what I needed from it, so I don't visit there much anymore.

For some specific questions about estate planning, especially the legal aspects, poster bsteiner over on bogleheads (an attorney who specializes in this) seem to be the expert on this topic.

Cheers.

I think bsteiner is good at estate planning, I was going to recommend hime also, but couldn't remember his name (part of my CRS diagnosis)