Book Review: The Power Of Zero

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This review is for the 2018 update of the original 2013 book The Power Of Zero by David McKnight. The subtitle is How To Get To The 0% Tax Bracket And Transform Your Retirement.

McKnight makes a case that federal tax rates will double from current levels due to spending on social security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest on the national debt, and future projections for those spending categories. Based on that conclusion he states that the retirement goal is to get to the 0% tax bracket.

I disagree. IMO the framing should be ‘how do I maximize real after-tax lifetime income?’

Given the 0% goal, McKnight recommends
  1. Taxable: 6 months income (emergency fund).
  2. Tax-deferred: no more than for RMDs to stay below the SS taxable threshold.
  3. Tax-free: everything else.
McKnight defines tax-free as free from all taxes AND not contributing to SS provisional income. Thus, municipal bonds and anything producing capital gains are excluded. Roth accounts and permanent life insurance are what qualify (do you see where this is going?). Oddly, he never mentions the 0% capital gains tax bracket. He also doesn’t mention delaying SS.

McKnight does understand that the desirability of tax-deferred and tax-free money depends on the tax situation when the contributions are made vs. the tax situation when distributions are taken. This is mentioned on p.28 and p.46. But he talks about tax brackets instead of effective tax rate. P.46 “In what circumstances should you contribute to an IRA? The answer depends on whether or not your will be in a higher or lower tax bracket when you take the money out in retirement. That’s it. End of story.” The answer depends on the effective tax rate in withdrawal, not a bracket.

I assert that the fixation with 0%, in particular keeping below the SS threshold, obscures better strategies. I’ll examine that idea with examples in another post in this thread.

There is a SS tax example in Chapter 3. I’ll examine that in detail in another post in this thread.

Chapter 5 is The LIRP (Life Insurance Retirement Plan). This is where all the remaining tax-free money goes after Roth contributions and conversions. Permanent life insurance, including Whole Life, Variable Universal Life, and Indexed Universal Life are mentioned on p.57 (although the specific names are not used). McKnight touts secondary benefits such as long-term-care (with a rider on the policy) and tax-free death benefit in addition to using the LIRP for retirement income (through loans against the cash value of the policy, which are not income and therefore not taxed; they also do not count as provisional SS income).

I am not categorically against using permanent life insurance as part of a retirement/LTC/legacy plan. The benefits McKnight cites are real and can make sense for some retirees. It is a long-term plan and, if employed, should be integrated into a comprehensive retirement strategy. I do think that McKnight oversells insurance as part of the retirement plan. As a side note, he claims back-tested historical results of 7-9% for IUL. Without digging deeper into that subject here and making this review even longer, it is likely that IUL will produce more bond-like than stock-like returns.

Chapter 7 has a case study of a married couple who are 50 and want to retire at 65. The recommendations include funding Roth accounts at $13k / yr and LIRPs at 23.5k / yr. Yes, the LIRP gets 64% of the tax-free money and the Roth gets 36%.

Chapter 9, The Tax -Free Road Map, tells you that you need a financial advisor, particularly for this complicated 0% tax strategy. And pp. 123-124 have the big reveal, “Begin your search by having a discussion with the advisor who gave you this book.” On page 123 of 140 it’s revealed that the book is a marketing tool for a financial advisor (the one “who gave you this book”). Who is presumably licensed to advise you for AUM fees and is also licensed to sell you the high-commission permanent life insurance. And who is also presumably part of McKnights Power Of Zero agent network. I did some searching and was unable to find any details, but I’m certain McKnight gets a cut of the FAs cut.
 
This examines the SS tax example from The Power Of Zero (2018) on p.33. It also examines alternate strategies.

(This uses 2018 tax rules, as does the original example.)

A married couple, MFJ $30k SS, IRA distribution $80k.

For MFJ, 0% of SS is subject to tax if provisional income is under $32k.

With the IRA distribution, 85% of SS becomes taxable.

(0.85 * 30) + 80 = 105.5 – 24 (2018 std deduction for MFJ) = 81.5

2018 federal tax brackets

10 % 0-19050
12% 19051-77400
22% 77401-165000

Federal tax = (0.1 * 19050) + 0.12 * 58349) + (0.22 * 4099) = 9808

So, the effective tax rate on the additional 80k distribution is 9808/80000*100 = 12.3%

As the IRA contributions were made prior to 2018, they would likely have been taxed at the 25% bracket. Even granting McKnight’s assertion that tax rates will double, 12.3% * 2 = 24.6% is less than 25%. A distribution from Roth for the 4099 would have eliminated the 22% taxes.

But what if…?

Assume an IRA of $2MM (a 4% withdrawal at $80k). What if $1MM was instead in a taxable account, invested in a US total market index fund?

Average yield for 2017 was 1.85% (source: Seeking Alpha). And those dividends are almost entirely qualified. For simplicity, I’ll assume 100% qualified. This introduces a small error.

The 0% capital gains bracket in 2018 was 0 - 77,200 (source: cpadirectory.com).

Now the couple has 30k SS and $18.5k qualified dividends. To make up the remaining 61.5k gross income they pull 50% from the taxable account and 50% from their IRA (not the most efficient percentages for tax purposes.) How much embedded capital gains are in the fund? Let’s assume 33%.

30k SS
18.5 qualified dividends
30.75 IRA distribution
20.6 return on principal (not income; non-taxable)
10.15 capital gains

[I’m not going to go back to 2018 and do the worksheet to determine the taxable portion of SS, so I’ll just assume 85%. Any error here reduces taxes.]

25.5 SS + 30.75 IRA = 56.25 ordinary income
18.5 QD + 10.15 CG = 28.65
Total income = 56.25 + 28.65 – 24 (std deduction) = 60.9. 0% LTCG/QD tax.

Income tax: 56.25 – 24 = 32.35. (19050 *0.1) + (13300 *0.12) = 3501. An effective tax rate of 3501/11000*100 = 3.2% Even assuming McKnight’s tax rate doubling, that’s 6.4%.
 
I did one more example calculation, this time for 2025. All tax brackets are doubled from actual 2025 rates.

2025 federal tax brackets, doubled
20 % 0-23850
24% 23851-96950
48% 96951-206700

LGCG/QD brackets, doubled
0% 0-96700
30% 96701-600050

[IRMAA tier 1 = 2024 earnings <= 218k]

Consider a married couple, both 65 yo, MFJ (standard deduction of $34.5k), $48k SS, (average SS for a retiree is ~2k/mo). If MAGI <= $150k, an additional $12k deduction. Side note: SS becomes 85% taxable in 2025 at ~SS + $37k in provisional income. For our couple that’s $85k.

Portfolio: $1.2MM in taxable, $1.2MM in tIRA, $0.6MM in Roth. The taxable account has $1.0MM in a Total US fund yielding 1.85% and $0.2MM in munis yielding 2.5%. Our couple wants to withdraw $120k. Without SS this would be a 4% WR; with SS it is 2.4%.

Start with $48k (SS) + $18.5k (QDs) + $5k (munis) = $71.5k. $48.5 left. If pulled from the IRA then SS provisional income = $24k+$18.5k+$5k+$48.5k = $89k. So, SS is fully 85% taxable ($48k*0.85=$40.8k) and the couple gets the additional $12k deduction.

Ordinary income = $40.8k (taxable SS) + $48.5k (IRA withdrawal) – $46.5k (enhanced deduction) = $42.8k
QD income = $18.5k (taxable)
Non-taxable income = $5k (munis)

Taxes = ($23,850 * 0.2) + ($18,950 * 0.24) = $6,933. QDs of $18.5k stacked on top of $42.8k of ordinary income is below the $96,701 threshold, so $0 taxes.

The couple pays $6,933 of federal taxes on a total income of $120,000. Effective tax rate is 5.78%.
 
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