Well, hi! VERY sorry that a post-op bleed --- more painful than anything I'd ever experienced --- interrupted the weeklies, but hopefully that won't happen again(!!!)
The week ended 1/30 was a very low volatility week in most fixed income products, with a slight positive tone in several bondish income CEFs. Several are on new weekly MACD buy signals: PDI PHK PAXS GOF. PHK and PAXS made new (stockcharts) 2-yr highs. Meanwhile portfolio component ETFS HYG LQD MBB IEF wandered around unchanged.
Fed funds futures estimate a Fed cut in June and a high likelihood cut in December that would bring YE 2026 to 3.12%. The year bill one year forward is 3.58%, and Fed guide inflation breakeven 5ys 5yrs forward is just under 2.25%.
Data I noticed during the week included a downside surprise in consumer confidence. Home prices Y/Y are down about 2%, which should impact inflation data sometime before the next Ice Age thanks to its silly lagged design as a large component of inflation indices. GDP sorta surprised to the upside thanks to tariff effects on international trade that are already reversing. PPI was a little higher than expected, but nobody cares because, as JPOW said at his news conference, policy makers think tariff effects are passing and basically look at unalarming inflation measures ex-tariff effects.
More esoteric --- but I think important --- Fed balance sheet stuff with the hyperbolic point-making drained away. The SIZE of the Fed balance sheet was 4.0T in 2020, hit COVID high 9.0T in late 2022, and is now down to 6.6T ---- net up from 4.0 during a 5yr period of reasonable broad economic growth. Maybe it can shrink a bit more, but also maybe it's close to right. MORE IMPORTANT: excesss reserve balances are currently 2.9T, down from a COVID 4+T and THE SAME AS IN 2015.
OPINION: Bondish CEF prices will surely wiggle around with mood swings and institional execution follies, but up here at 11+% to 14+%, it barely matters whether Fed funds are 3.6% or 3.3% or even 3.8% down below. I think market prices will probably move up a bit just because these CEFs are so relatively cheap, but I suspect MOST of 2026 total returns will come from the rich distributions --- which fits my income portfolio strategy just fine.
Regards, Dick