CEF Holdings --- July 2026

[dickoncapecod]

I don't know who is at fault here but I expect my bond houses to be squeeky clean. I remember Janus scandal years ago and I shunned them. FYI only:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/storied-bond-trader-ken-leech-makes-his-last-trade

Ken's malfeasance was a mutual fund problem, not CEFs --- and a straightforward violation of asset management, CFTC and commodity exchange regs. If you abandon management firms whenever a bad apple is (think about it) discovered and publicized, you'll soon find yourself limited to investing in t-bills.

Aside: nailing such behavior in court is sadly very difficult. One Friday afternoon years ago I got a call at home to fly to Boston immediately and bring a suitcase. An investment manager had walked into his boss's office and said (paraphrase) "I didn't mean to do anything wrong. I've retained council. Goodbye."

When I arrived, there were a bunch of accountants (wrong skill set -- the accounting was fine) scratching their heads.. I sat down and started tossing the guy's desk and papers. In the garbage can, I found pages of evidence that the guy DID know what he was doing ---- practice signatures and initials of the supervisor who was supposed to okay every trade. He'd just short-circuited the control procedure. And his bond futures trades were huge and absolute violations of both company policies and client investment guidelines.


Now here's the problem in court: his firm hired a Chicago consulting outfit famous for finding whatever their client needed for a good fee. When I returned for a hearing, these consultants testified under oath their "opinion" was the miscreant was an honest trader "placing hedges and engaged in risk management activities." I went wild. One of my partners physically removed me from court be for the judge did. But the management firm was off the hook for obviously inexcusable behavior.
Regards, Dick

 

[PaulR888]

Buy-and-hold investors don't have that flexibility. If their fund drops 20–30% or more, their portfolio drops with it, and they often just ride it out. That approach has never made much sense to me.

If you read through the CEF thread, you'll find plenty of experienced traders who think the same way.

For example, my first bond fund was PIMIX, which I bought in 2010 as I started shifting from stocks to bonds while planning for retirement. Over the next several years, I built PIMIX into more than 50% of my portfolio. At the time, virtually all of my bond allocation was in that single fund. I haven't believed in broad diversification since 2000.

In January 2018, I sold PIMIX completely. Since then, I've only traded it occasionally because I've found better opportunities elsewhere.

My approach has always been about staying flexible, running a highly concentrated portfolio, and being willing to think outside the box.

No more posts about bond OEFs.

Yawn .....

 

[PaulR888]

All our money in brokers, banks, and credit unions is 99+% in bond OEFs, making 7.5% in the first half of 2026.
While AI could be in the 7-8th inning, other categories may not. There are usually other options.
Think SCHD, TIBIX, even QQQ.
View attachment 64665

Anyone who believes this, let me know. I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

 

[Flyfish1]

Ken's malfeasance was a mutual fund problem, not CEFs --- and a straightforward violation of asset management, CFTC and commodity exchange regs. If you abandon management firms whenever a bad apple is (think about it) discovered and publicized, you'll soon find yourself limited to investing in t-bills.

Aside: nailing such behavior in court is sadly very difficult. One Friday afternoon years ago I got a call at home to fly to Boston immediately and bring a suitcase. An investment manager had walked into his boss's office and said (paraphrase) "I didn't mean to do anything wrong. I've retained council. Goodbye."

When I arrived, there were a bunch of accountants (wrong skill set -- the accounting was fine) scratching their heads.. I sat down and started tossing the guy's desk and papers. In the garbage can, I found pages of evidence that the guy DID know what he was doing ---- practice signatures and initials of the supervisor who was supposed to okay every trade. He'd just short-circuited the control procedure. And his bond futures trades were huge and absolute violations of both company policies and client investment guidelines.


Now here's the problem in court: his firm hired a Chicago consulting outfit famous for finding whatever their client needed for a good fee. When I returned for a hearing, these consultants testified under oath their "opinion" was the miscreant was an honest trader "placing hedges and engaged in risk management activities." I went wild. One of my partners physically removed me from court be for the judge did. But the management firm was off the hook for obviously inexcusable behavior.
Regards, Dick

That's a crazy story.

 

[GaltintheGulch]

Hi. WDI has been trading at a significant discount. CEFs cannot issue shares below NAV, so your vendor executed your "reinvest" choice by buying shares in the open market (when they chose to). FWIW, Fido permits me to toggle back and forth ---- so I always choose the cash payment option when a CEF is at a discount. Then it's up to me to use the cash as I wish.
Regards, Dick

cash payment option for me as well

 

[GaltintheGulch]

PDI 9%, GOF 7%, PHK 6%, WDI 3%, PAXS 3%, PTY .5% (new position), Cash 3%
H1 return 5.5% Total income $24K/Mo

 

[IncomeOriented]

Ken's malfeasance was a mutual fund problem, not CEFs --- and a straightforward violation of asset management, CFTC and commodity exchange regs. If you abandon management firms whenever a bad apple is (think about it) discovered and publicized, you'll soon find yourself limited to investing in t-bills.

Aside: nailing such behavior in court is sadly very difficult. One Friday afternoon years ago I got a call at home to fly to Boston immediately and bring a suitcase. An investment manager had walked into his boss's office and said (paraphrase) "I didn't mean to do anything wrong. I've retained council. Goodbye."

When I arrived, there were a bunch of accountants (wrong skill set -- the accounting was fine) scratching their heads.. I sat down and started tossing the guy's desk and papers. In the garbage can, I found pages of evidence that the guy DID know what he was doing ---- practice signatures and initials of the supervisor who was supposed to okay every trade. He'd just short-circuited the control procedure. And his bond futures trades were huge and absolute violations of both company policies and client investment guidelines.


Now here's the problem in court: his firm hired a Chicago consulting outfit famous for finding whatever their client needed for a good fee. When I returned for a hearing, these consultants testified under oath their "opinion" was the miscreant was an honest trader "placing hedges and engaged in risk management activities." I went wild. One of my partners physically removed me from court be for the judge did. But the management firm was off the hook for obviously inexcusable behavior.
Regards, Dick

I served on the New England area “advisory council” for my firm (euphemisms I’m using for shield). Dick’s story is more common than you most people think. Egregious behavior by a small minority of brokers, sometimes they are just jaw dropping. The brokerage covers the losses, and pay the fines and penalties and life goes on. NEVER DO Business with any broker planner without consulting BtokerCheck.

 

[dickoncapecod]

The short week ended 7/2 was another good one for most bondish income CEFs. The following (and surely more) are now on fresh weekly MACD buy signals: PAXS PFN RCS PTY GOF DSL JFR KIO WDI BGH BIT BTZ BIZD. Popular PDI had a good week too, but has been sold down so hard that slow developing weekly buy signals have not yet arrived. Interestingly, portfolio component CEFs stalled close to one year highs.

Under the hood, Fed funds futures now still predict at least one hike in 2026, but the likelihood of a second hike has almost vanished. The year bill one year forward is 4.36%, and 5yr, 10yr, and 5y-5yr inflation breakevens ALL sit right at 2.25%. It's hard to argue inflation expectations are not well anchored.

Amidst all the inflation and speculative Warsh quack, the slowing economy went almost unnoticed. Home prices were down, consumer confidence weak, and ISM/PMI diffusion indices down. Mysteriously, construction spending was up only 0,1% despite all these AI buildout stories...? The clincher came Thursday with June payrolls up 57k --- half the expected number --- accompanied by large negative revisions to recent past months. Hourly earnings were up 0.3% and the unemployment rate fell a tenth to 4,2% BECAUSE labor force participation FELL 700k. Casting sometimes deceptive percentages aside, the economy runs on butts in chairs and busy hands, and you can't grow an economy for long with 700k fewer labor market participants. Note: Fed Atlanta GDP forecast fell to 1,2% and Fed StL 1.3% BEFORE the jobs data!

Next week brings no critical data, but we will get recent Fed minutes for talking heads to quack argumentatively over. Watching markets when the first string returns from the shore will be interesting. So.....

Speculative opinion: I am very constructive on bondish CEFs, not in the sense of expecting large price increases --- although that may happen ---- but in the sense of at least maintaining prices and NAVs while doing their job: generating generous income.
1. The economy is clearly slowing, and I expect the expectation of ANY rate hikes to be slowly wrung out of futures curves.
2. Inflation is going to cooperate in spades. Fed Cleveland's reliable model forecasts...
JUNE data released this month: CPI MINUS 0.1% and PCE deflator +0.1%
JULY data released next month: CPI MINUS 0.2% and PCE deflator ZERO
3. If these data unfold as predicted, Fed will look like monkeys if they hike policy rates.
4. Top market and econ lads at GS and BLK now see no policy rate changes in 2026 and some modest cuts in 2027.

As this developing narrative is ultimately reflected in rate prices and curves, bondish CEFs still yielding 11+% to 15+% will enjoy price increases that include recovery of premiums lost over the past year. I remain fully invested and have high hopes that trading can now be limited to exploiting relative value and ex-date swaps.
Happy 4th! Dick

 

[Budswhizzer]

The short week ended 7/2 was another good one for most bondish income CEFs. The following (and surely more) are now on fresh weekly MACD buy signals: PAXS PFM RCS PTY GOF DSL JFR KIO WDI BGH BIT BTZ BIZD. Popular PDI had a good week too, but has been sold down so hard that slow developing weekly buy signals have not yet arrived. Interestingly, portfolio component CEFs stalled close to one year highs.

Under the hood, Fed funds futures now still predict at least one hike in 2026, but the likelihood of a second hike has almost vanished. The year bill one year forward is 4.36%, and 5yr, 10yr, and 5y-5yr inflation breakevens ALL sit right at 2.25%. It's hard to argue inflation expectations are not well anchored.

Amidst all the inflation and speculative Warsh quack, the slowing economy went almost unnoticed. Home prices were down, consumer confidence weak, and ISM/PMI diffusion indices down. Mysteriously, construction spending was up only 0,1% despite all these AI buildout stories...? The clincher came Thursday with June payrolls up 57k --- half the expected number --- accompanied by large negative revisions to recent past months. Hourly earnings were up 0.3% and the unemployment rate fell a tenth to 4,2% BECAUSE labor force participation FELL 700k. Casting sometimes deceptive percentages aside, the economy runs on butts in chairs and busy hands, and you can't grow an economy for long with 700k fewer labor market participants. Note: Fed Atlanta GDP forecast fell to 1,2% and Fed StL 1.3% BEFORE the jobs data!

Next week brings no critical data, but we will get recent Fed minutes for talking heads to quack argumentatively over. Watching markets when the first string returns from the shore will be interesting. So.....

Speculative opinion: I am very constructive on bondish CEFs, not in the sense of expecting large price increases --- although that may happen ---- but in the sense of at least maintaining prices and NAVs while doing their job: generating generous income.
1. The economy is clearly slowing, and I expect the expectation of ANY rate hikes to be slowly wrung out of futures curves.
2. Inflation is going to cooperate in spades. Fed Cleveland's reliable model forecasts...
JUNE data released this month: CPI MINUS 0.1% and PCE deflator +0.1%
JULY data released next month: CPI MINUS 0.2% and PCE deflator ZERO
3. If these data unfold as predicted, Fed will look like monkeys if they hike policy rates.
4. Top market and econ lads at GS and BLK now see no policy rate changes in 2026 and some modest cuts in 2027.

As this developing narrative is ultimately reflected in rate prices and curves, bondish CEFs still yielding 11+% to 15+% will enjoy price increases that include recovery of premiums lost over the past year. I remain fully invested and have high hopes that trading can now be limited to exploiting relative value and ex-date swaps.
Happy 4th! Dick

Thanks, Dick! Happy 4th to you and yours!!

 

[dickoncapecod]

I served on the New England area “advisory council” for my firm (euphemisms I’m using for shield). Dick’s story is more common than you most people think. Egregious behavior by a small minority of brokers, sometimes they are just jaw dropping. The brokerage covers the losses, and pay the fines and penalties and life goes on. NEVER DO Business with any broker planner without consulting BtokerCheck.

Agreed on brokers, but the issue began with mistrust of ASSET MANAGENENT firms --- where bad behavior affects thousands+ investors in managed products rather than individuals.
Unrelated aside: I've heard that almost all $ that disappeared in the Madoff crimes has been recovered and distributed --- although delays have obviously cost investors the great equity returns of recent years.
Regards, Dick

 

[Karner Blue]

The short week ended 7/2 was another good one for most bondish income CEFs. The following (and surely more) are now on fresh weekly MACD buy signals: PAXS PFN RCS PTY GOF DSL JFR KIO WDI BGH BIT BTZ BIZD. Popular PDI had a good week too, but has been sold down so hard that slow developing weekly buy signals have not yet arrived. Interestingly, portfolio component CEFs stalled close to one year highs.

Under the hood, Fed funds futures now still predict at least one hike in 2026, but the likelihood of a second hike has almost vanished. The year bill one year forward is 4.36%, and 5yr, 10yr, and 5y-5yr inflation breakevens ALL sit right at 2.25%. It's hard to argue inflation expectations are not well anchored.

Amidst all the inflation and speculative Warsh quack, the slowing economy went almost unnoticed. Home prices were down, consumer confidence weak, and ISM/PMI diffusion indices down. Mysteriously, construction spending was up only 0,1% despite all these AI buildout stories...? The clincher came Thursday with June payrolls up 57k --- half the expected number --- accompanied by large negative revisions to recent past months. Hourly earnings were up 0.3% and the unemployment rate fell a tenth to 4,2% BECAUSE labor force participation FELL 700k. Casting sometimes deceptive percentages aside, the economy runs on butts in chairs and busy hands, and you can't grow an economy for long with 700k fewer labor market participants. Note: Fed Atlanta GDP forecast fell to 1,2% and Fed StL 1.3% BEFORE the jobs data!

Next week brings no critical data, but we will get recent Fed minutes for talking heads to quack argumentatively over. Watching markets when the first string returns from the shore will be interesting. So.....

Speculative opinion: I am very constructive on bondish CEFs, not in the sense of expecting large price increases --- although that may happen ---- but in the sense of at least maintaining prices and NAVs while doing their job: generating generous income.
1. The economy is clearly slowing, and I expect the expectation of ANY rate hikes to be slowly wrung out of futures curves.
2. Inflation is going to cooperate in spades. Fed Cleveland's reliable model forecasts...
JUNE data released this month: CPI MINUS 0.1% and PCE deflator +0.1%
JULY data released next month: CPI MINUS 0.2% and PCE deflator ZERO
3. If these data unfold as predicted, Fed will look like monkeys if they hike policy rates.
4. Top market and econ lads at GS and BLK now see no policy rate changes in 2026 and some modest cuts in 2027.

As this developing narrative is ultimately reflected in rate prices and curves, bondish CEFs still yielding 11+% to 15+% will enjoy price increases that include recovery of premiums lost over the past year. I remain fully invested and have high hopes that trading can now be limited to exploiting relative value and ex-date swaps.
Happy 4th! Dick

Thank you sir

 

[FD1000]

Anyone who believes this, let me know. I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Here is a direct screenshot from Schwab where I have 99+% of our money.
The blue line is my portfolio performance over that time.

YTD

Since retiring

 

[Flieger]

Here is a direct screenshot from Schwab where I have 99+% of our money.
The blue line is my portfolio performance over that time.

YTD

View attachment 64685

Since retiring

View attachment 64684

There's nothing indicating the investments here, which is I think what he is questioning.

Flieger

 

[marko]

Here is a direct screenshot from Schwab where I have 99+% of our money.
The blue line is my portfolio performance over that time.

YTD

View attachment 64685

Since retiring

View attachment 64684

Interesting numbers but pretty much in line with what most of us here have recorded ourselves with any basic 70/30.

Nothing special that I can see unless I'm missing something. And no special skill required.

 

[MRG]

Agreed on brokers, but the issue began with mistrust of ASSET MANAGENENT firms --- where bad behavior affects thousands+ investors in managed products rather than individuals.
Unrelated aside: I've heard that almost all $ that disappeared in the Madoff crimes has been recovered and distributed --- although delays have obviously cost investors the great equity returns of recent years.
Regards, Dick

Yes. Investors never seem to be compensated for time. The only thing you really can't get back.

 

[Flyfish1]

Here is a direct screenshot from Schwab where I have 99+% of our money.
The blue line is my portfolio performance over that time.

YTD

View attachment 64685

Since retiring

View attachment 64684

It is my understanding that in this particular performance metric Schwab uses time-weighted return, which is independent of deposits and withdrawals. It does not reflect the actual percentage of dollar value gained or lost in the portfolio. For that one would simply look at starting value and ending value or ask Schwab to present the performance data using money- weighted return/IRR. I could be wrong but that is my understanding when looking at my Schwab performance data.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Anyone who believes this, let me know. I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

Why do you disbelieve the rather modest total return report? Stocks have done very well...

 

[dickoncapecod]

Yes. Investors never seem to be compensated for time. The only thing you really can't get back.

Well, in fairness, the extent of the recovery had investors who believed they had lost everything doing handsprings, not bitchng about additional recompense. D

 

[PaulR888]

Here is a direct screenshot from Schwab where I have 99+% of our money.
The blue line is my portfolio performance over that time.

YTD

View attachment 64685

Since retiring

View attachment 64684

You are polluting Dick's CEF thread. Stop it. You've posted graphics like this before. They prove nothing.

 

[PaulR888]

Why do you disbelieve the rather modest total return report? Stocks have done very well...

Hi Dick, why? Because he claims this TR from an all OEF portfolio. Every year for the last almost 15 years it's the same story. He is always Johnny on the Spot, perfect timing, in the best OEF all the time, out of the market when it corrects. It is pure fantasy. But I have a solution. He is now the 2nd person added to my ignore list. Have a wonderful 4th of July.

 

[stefansm]

You need to read about my model and follow my comments.
example: Market calls 2

Ah, so you achieved 7.5% by trading in and out of the bond OEFs based on your market calls.

 

[stefansm]

The short week ended 7/2 was another good one for most bondish income CEFs. The following (and surely more) are now on fresh weekly MACD buy signals: PAXS PFN RCS PTY GOF DSL JFR KIO WDI BGH BIT BTZ BIZD. Popular PDI had a good week too, but has been sold down so hard that slow developing weekly buy signals have not yet arrived. Interestingly, portfolio component CEFs stalled close to one year highs.

Under the hood, Fed funds futures now still predict at least one hike in 2026, but the likelihood of a second hike has almost vanished. The year bill one year forward is 4.36%, and 5yr, 10yr, and 5y-5yr inflation breakevens ALL sit right at 2.25%. It's hard to argue inflation expectations are not well anchored.

Amidst all the inflation and speculative Warsh quack, the slowing economy went almost unnoticed. Home prices were down, consumer confidence weak, and ISM/PMI diffusion indices down. Mysteriously, construction spending was up only 0,1% despite all these AI buildout stories...? The clincher came Thursday with June payrolls up 57k --- half the expected number --- accompanied by large negative revisions to recent past months. Hourly earnings were up 0.3% and the unemployment rate fell a tenth to 4,2% BECAUSE labor force participation FELL 700k. Casting sometimes deceptive percentages aside, the economy runs on butts in chairs and busy hands, and you can't grow an economy for long with 700k fewer labor market participants. Note: Fed Atlanta GDP forecast fell to 1,2% and Fed StL 1.3% BEFORE the jobs data!

Next week brings no critical data, but we will get recent Fed minutes for talking heads to quack argumentatively over. Watching markets when the first string returns from the shore will be interesting. So.....

Speculative opinion: I am very constructive on bondish CEFs, not in the sense of expecting large price increases --- although that may happen ---- but in the sense of at least maintaining prices and NAVs while doing their job: generating generous income.
1. The economy is clearly slowing, and I expect the expectation of ANY rate hikes to be slowly wrung out of futures curves.
2. Inflation is going to cooperate in spades. Fed Cleveland's reliable model forecasts...
JUNE data released this month: CPI MINUS 0.1% and PCE deflator +0.1%
JULY data released next month: CPI MINUS 0.2% and PCE deflator ZERO
3. If these data unfold as predicted, Fed will look like monkeys if they hike policy rates.
4. Top market and econ lads at GS and BLK now see no policy rate changes in 2026 and some modest cuts in 2027.

As this developing narrative is ultimately reflected in rate prices and curves, bondish CEFs still yielding 11+% to 15+% will enjoy price increases that include recovery of premiums lost over the past year. I remain fully invested and have high hopes that trading can now be limited to exploiting relative value and ex-date swaps.
Happy 4th! Dick

There is exceptional value we are all getting here with these weekly analyses and personal opinion pieces. Thank you so much!

 

[dickoncapecod]

Received a consolidated 19a list for Western CEFs, and WDI did not appear on it. So the datum that WDI had increased UNII in Q1 is reinforced by this disclosure that the last distribution was covered by NII alone.
Regards, Dick

 

[Texas Proud]

I think that he could have done what he said... but as others have said doing a set it and forget it with a stock allocation kinda blew away his total return without any trading...

I just checked my Vanguard account and the past 10 years is 14.2% and I do not trade any there.. I do trade a bit here and there with small money in my Schwab account and I am at 19%+ since 2023 when I opened it... and almost all of that is not due to trading..

Some of you do really well doing what you do... but that does not mean the vast majority can do what you are doing... the vast majority CAN do what I am doing...

 

[sengsational]

On this site, we try to keep the threads in the active investing category, like this thread, free from the active/passive debate.