southpoint
Dryer sheet wannabe
And you reliably express those views to provide context and rationale. Much appreciated.---- because for better or worse, I have a view regarding future policy/macro.
And you reliably express those views to provide context and rationale. Much appreciated.---- because for better or worse, I have a view regarding future policy/macro.
Yes, entry point matters! If someone bought every PIMCO CEF in March and April 2009, they would be very happy campers.This tells you that investors thought GOF was too expensive in October. It doesn't really tell you anything about the fund's performance. Valuations matter when choosing entry points for a closed end fund.
Yes, entry point matters! If someone bought every PIMCO CEF in March and April 2009, they would be very happy campers.
If you reinvest the dividends like I do, given a long enough time frame, it helps too.Yes, entry point matters! If someone bought every PIMCO CEF in March and April 2009, they would be very happy campers.
If 5% of your portfolio can generate $35K annually, it means that your portfolio is around $4-5 million. Congrats.That's because you are 100% TR guy. I am a TR + Income guy. If I can generate $35K income with only 5% at risk, count me in. Do they invest in CEFs in Shark Tank?
Check out NEOS ETFs (not CEFs). They do a good job with tax management. That is all I will say as they are not CEFs. I own them across my portfolio…taxable, Roth and TIRA.I appreciate this insight and investment thesis but always get stumped digging in the weeds trying to figure out which ROC is destructive versus intentionally intelligent tax planning.....and then realizing that even if I can find this information, I would have to revisit for every distribution unless the fund follows a particularly consistent distribution cadence..............so all that eventually means unless it is an incredibly unusual market misprice, I just avoid funds doing very much ROC, particularly those that sell at a premium
If 5% of your portfolio can generate $35K annually, it means that your portfolio is around $4-5 million. Congrats.
Income investing doesn't exist and never will be. It's either TR or risk-adjusted return. Since income is part of these, you must look at these first. Let's look at your CEFs = PTY+GOF.
Example: In the last 5 years, a 50/50 PTY/GOF made almost nothing, maybe 1-2% total. Yes. See the chart below. PIMIX made 20%, SPY 87%.
View attachment 64299
But, let's go one more step and see SD=volatility, Sharpe, and TR. For that, I used PV from 5/21 to 5/26.
Below you can see CASH (U.S. 3-Month Treasury), PTY+GOF, PIMIX, and SPY. I can do much better than CASH but it's another matter. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3mHSmcs5JvnuxzcuS0ivfG)
View attachment 64301
As you can see, CASH made more than the 2 CEFs. You can use VMFXX(MM) instead, with volatility=zero. But wait, the CEFS SD is worse than SPY, and their Sharpe is negative; that's a pretty bad combo.
But let's go one more step. Instead of generating $35K annually from CEFs, let's make it $36K annually = $3K monthly. Let's run it again and see the results after the income. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7e22A9guqClpJW2JtO3mSb)
View attachment 64302
The results including income were not a surprise. The CEFs paid much more, but what counts are the end results. $1 million after all income ended at CASH=$991K, SPY=$1.64 million, PIMIX=$994K, the CEFs=$860K.
Your CEFs ended with a loss of 14%.
Remember, you can generate an income using funds. Example: At Fidelity, you can set up an AUTOMATIC monthly sale order on a specific day of the month to sell $3K and let it run for years. You can use funds like FXAIX(SP500), or FBALX(allocation), and others. BTW, if this money is in a taxable account, you will pay higher taxes on the CEFs because it's a ST distributions. FAXIX,FBALX have lower taxes with LTCG.
Sure, with a large portfolio, you can do whatever. You can invest in 50% MM and make it. Making it doesn't prove good investing; it proves big portfolios.
Lastly, I'm not against income, CEFs or anything else. There is a right time to use them based on market conditions and always looking at SD, Sortino, Sharpe, and TR. During my lifetime, I have used mostly US LC for stocks, but during 2000-10 I have used LC Value (with higher income), SC, and international because SPY lost money in these 10 years. It's also not a secret that I have been over 95% in bond OEFs.
Entry point on CEFs is similarly critical as location is to real estate.Yes, entry point matters! If someone bought every PIMCO CEF in March and April 2009, they would be very happy campers.
YupEntry point on CEFs is similarly critical as location is to real estate.
I do admire what you do.If 5% of your portfolio can generate $35K annually, it means that your portfolio is around $4-5 million. Congrats.
Income investing doesn't exist and never will be. It's either TR or risk-adjusted return. Since income is part of these, you must look at these first. Let's look at your CEFs = PTY+GOF.
Example: In the last 5 years, a 50/50 PTY/GOF made almost nothing, maybe 1-2% total. Yes. See the chart below. PIMIX made 20%, SPY 87%.
View attachment 64299
But, let's go one more step and see SD=volatility, Sharpe, and TR. For that, I used PV from 5/21 to 5/26.
Below you can see CASH (U.S. 3-Month Treasury), PTY+GOF, PIMIX, and SPY. I can do much better than CASH but it's another matter. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3mHSmcs5JvnuxzcuS0ivfG)
View attachment 64301
As you can see, CASH made more than the 2 CEFs. You can use VMFXX(MM) instead, with volatility=zero. But wait, the CEFS SD is worse than SPY, and their Sharpe is negative; that's a pretty bad combo.
But let's go one more step. Instead of generating $35K annually from CEFs, let's make it $36K annually = $3K monthly. Let's run it again and see the results after the income. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7e22A9guqClpJW2JtO3mSb)
View attachment 64302
The results including income were not a surprise. The CEFs paid much more, but what counts are the end results. $1 million after all income ended at CASH=$991K, SPY=$1.64 million, PIMIX=$994K, the CEFs=$860K.
Your CEFs ended with a loss of 14%.
Remember, you can generate an income using funds. Example: At Fidelity, you can set up an AUTOMATIC monthly sale order on a specific day of the month to sell $3K and let it run for years. You can use funds like FXAIX(SP500), or FBALX(allocation), and others. BTW, if this money is in a taxable account, you will pay higher taxes on the CEFs because it's a ST distributions. FAXIX,FBALX have lower taxes with LTCG.
Sure, with a large portfolio, you can do whatever. You can invest in 50% MM and make it. Making it doesn't prove good investing; it proves big portfolios.
Lastly, I'm not against income, CEFs or anything else. There is a right time to use them based on market conditions and always looking at SD, Sortino, Sharpe, and TR. During my lifetime, I have used mostly US LC for stocks, but during 2000-10 I have used LC Value (with higher income), SC, and international because SPY lost money in these 10 years. It's also not a secret that I have been over 95% in bond OEFs since 2018.
If 5% of your portfolio can generate $35K annually, it means that your portfolio is around $4-5 million. Congrats.
Income investing doesn't exist and never will be. It's either TR or risk-adjusted return. Since income is part of these, you must look at these first. Let's look at your CEFs = PTY+GOF.
Example: In the last 5 years, a 50/50 PTY/GOF made almost nothing, maybe 1-2% total. Yes. See the chart below. PIMIX made 20%, SPY 87%.
View attachment 64299
But, let's go one more step and see SD=volatility, Sharpe, and TR. For that, I used PV from 5/21 to 5/26.
Below you can see CASH (U.S. 3-Month Treasury), PTY+GOF, PIMIX, and SPY. I can do much better than CASH but it's another matter. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3mHSmcs5JvnuxzcuS0ivfG)
View attachment 64301
As you can see, CASH made more than the 2 CEFs. You can use VMFXX(MM) instead, with volatility=zero. But wait, the CEFS SD is worse than SPY, and their Sharpe is negative; that's a pretty bad combo.
But let's go one more step. Instead of generating $35K annually from CEFs, let's make it $36K annually = $3K monthly. Let's run it again and see the results after the income. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7e22A9guqClpJW2JtO3mSb)
View attachment 64302
The results including income were not a surprise. The CEFs paid much more, but what counts are the end results. $1 million after all income ended at CASH=$991K, SPY=$1.64 million, PIMIX=$994K, the CEFs=$860K.
Your CEFs ended with a loss of 14%.
Remember, you can generate an income using funds. Example: At Fidelity, you can set up an AUTOMATIC monthly sale order on a specific day of the month to sell $3K and let it run for years. You can use funds like FXAIX(SP500), or FBALX(allocation), and others. BTW, if this money is in a taxable account, you will pay higher taxes on the CEFs because it's a ST distributions. FAXIX,FBALX have lower taxes with LTCG.
Sure, with a large portfolio, you can do whatever. You can invest in 50% MM and make it. Making it doesn't prove good investing; it proves big portfolios.
Lastly, I'm not against income, CEFs or anything else. There is a right time to use them based on market conditions and always looking at SD, Sortino, Sharpe, and TR. During my lifetime, I have used mostly US LC for stocks, but during 2000-10 I have used LC Value (with higher income), SC, and international because SPY lost money in these 10 years. It's also not a secret that I have been over 95% in bond OEFs since 2018.
FD, you don't usually do this. Let's dump the period of Fed tightening when I'll assert it made no sense to own ANY fixed income products and do some comparisons....If 5% of your portfolio can generate $35K annually, it means that your portfolio is around $4-5 million. Congrats.
Income investing doesn't exist and never will be. It's either TR or risk-adjusted return. Since income is part of these, you must look at these first. Let's look at your CEFs = PTY+GOF.
Example: In the last 5 years, a 50/50 PTY/GOF made almost nothing, maybe 1-2% total. Yes. See the chart below. PIMIX made 20%, SPY 87%.
View attachment 64299
But, let's go one more step and see SD=volatility, Sharpe, and TR. For that, I used PV from 5/21 to 5/26.
Below you can see CASH (U.S. 3-Month Treasury), PTY+GOF, PIMIX, and SPY. I can do much better than CASH but it's another matter. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3mHSmcs5JvnuxzcuS0ivfG)
View attachment 64301
As you can see, CASH made more than the 2 CEFs. You can use VMFXX(MM) instead, with volatility=zero. But wait, the CEFS SD is worse than SPY, and their Sharpe is negative; that's a pretty bad combo.
But let's go one more step. Instead of generating $35K annually from CEFs, let's make it $36K annually = $3K monthly. Let's run it again and see the results after the income. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7e22A9guqClpJW2JtO3mSb)
View attachment 64302
The results including income were not a surprise. The CEFs paid much more, but what counts are the end results. $1 million after all income ended at CASH=$991K, SPY=$1.64 million, PIMIX=$994K, the CEFs=$860K.
Your CEFs ended with a loss of 14%.
Remember, you can generate an income using funds. Example: At Fidelity, you can set up an AUTOMATIC monthly sale order on a specific day of the month to sell $3K and let it run for years. You can use funds like FXAIX(SP500), or FBALX(allocation), and others. BTW, if this money is in a taxable account, you will pay higher taxes on the CEFs because it's a ST distributions. FAXIX,FBALX have lower taxes with LTCG.
Sure, with a large portfolio, you can do whatever. You can invest in 50% MM and make it. Making it doesn't prove good investing; it proves big portfolios.
Lastly, I'm not against income, CEFs or anything else. There is a right time to use them based on market conditions and always looking at SD, Sortino, Sharpe, and TR. During my lifetime, I have used mostly US LC for stocks, but during 2000-10 I have used LC Value (with higher income), SC, and international because SPY lost money in these 10 years. It's also not a secret that I have been over 95% in bond OEFs since 2018.
I am different from you. I have many accounts and many investment strategies. Overall, I am 50:50. My individual holdings on the equity side have a target allocation of 3% PV, so I can have about 16 holdings. Next year when I move into a retirement community, my budget will be $10K a month. As I am drawing cash from my MM to pay annual expenses, I want my underlying investments to generate income to apply to the next year's expenses without having to sell anything. My bond CEFs allow me to generate a nice portion of my total income needs for now (but if assisted living or memory care needs come up, I will need levers to pull to generate more income) but I can't allow them to get outsized within a 50:50 portfolio as they have equity-like volatility. I am investing for me and my beneficiary per stirpes so I have an investing time frame beyond my life.If 5% of your portfolio can generate $35K annually, it means that your portfolio is around $4-5 million. Congrats.
Income investing doesn't exist and never will be. It's either TR or risk-adjusted return. Since income is part of these, you must look at these first. Let's look at your CEFs = PTY+GOF.
Example: In the last 5 years, a 50/50 PTY/GOF made almost nothing, maybe 1-2% total. Yes. See the chart below. PIMIX made 20%, SPY 87%.
View attachment 64299
But, let's go one more step and see SD=volatility, Sharpe, and TR. For that, I used PV from 5/21 to 5/26.
Below you can see CASH (U.S. 3-Month Treasury), PTY+GOF, PIMIX, and SPY. I can do much better than CASH but it's another matter. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3mHSmcs5JvnuxzcuS0ivfG)
View attachment 64301
As you can see, CASH made more than the 2 CEFs. You can use VMFXX(MM) instead, with volatility=zero. But wait, the CEFS SD is worse than SPY, and their Sharpe is negative; that's a pretty bad combo.
But let's go one more step. Instead of generating $35K annually from CEFs, let's make it $36K annually = $3K monthly. Let's run it again and see the results after the income. See (https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=7e22A9guqClpJW2JtO3mSb)
View attachment 64302
The results including income were not a surprise. The CEFs paid much more, but what counts are the end results. $1 million after all income ended at CASH=$991K, SPY=$1.64 million, PIMIX=$994K, the CEFs=$860K.
Your CEFs ended with a loss of 14%.
Remember, you can generate an income using funds. Example: At Fidelity, you can set up an AUTOMATIC monthly sale order on a specific day of the month to sell $3K and let it run for years. You can use funds like FXAIX(SP500), or FBALX(allocation), and others. BTW, if this money is in a taxable account, you will pay higher taxes on the CEFs because it's a ST distributions. FAXIX,FBALX have lower taxes with LTCG.
Sure, with a large portfolio, you can do whatever. You can invest in 50% MM and make it. Making it doesn't prove good investing; it proves big portfolios.
Lastly, I'm not against income, CEFs or anything else. There is a right time to use them based on market conditions and always looking at SD, Sortino, Sharpe, and TR. During my lifetime, I have used mostly US LC for stocks, but during 2000-10 I have used LC Value (with higher income), SC, and international because SPY lost money in these 10 years. It's also not a secret that I have been over 95% in bond OEFs since 2018.
It is clearly not as obvious to some…Yupand water is wet! (I’m agreeing with you).
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Indeed! Related to the "total return" investor above who only actually makes comparisons beginning in the period the highest rate hikes in history (convenient), I was cherry picking my own dates. Buying GOF or PIMCO immediately following 2008 was quite the investment. Back testing without any actual context and then evaluating the forward prospects/value of an investment is amateur hour. Here we are, though.Yes, entry point matters! If someone bought every PIMCO CEF in March and April 2009, they would be very happy campers.
Yes, The description I remember is "data mining". It's easy to pick dates and get a chart of the results someone desires, good or bad. I think in this forum, for the most part, it's purely unintentional, or just not recognizing the contextual elements that could substantially change the meaning of the illustration, hypothetical, chart, or other backtesting of data.
But even when there is a reasonable time frame chosen, there is still the problem of past results, that cannot, and do not predict future results. All charts of valuations are very good at describing value changes, right up to point of a crash of values.
Today my charts say. "Rosebud". I trust them completely.
I also have tea leaves and tara cards, but they are not so reliable, and I'm open to new ideas.
1) Kids won't get $4M as I won't have $4M left and 2) Oh wait, I don't have any kids<snip>
If ones $5 million portfolio fluctuates between $4 million and $6 million, but they reap $600,000 a year (12%) in gross income, why would they care? Oh no, I only left my kids $4,000,000?
Actually, it has always amazed me that investors act as though future prices/trends/returns are unknowable and cannot be anticipated because that view is not only obviously false but also clearly at odds with the way they navigate through their lives. The future is not an epistemological blank wall. In fact, our every decision, every conclusion --- even our physical movements are based on conscious or unconsious/automatic probability assessments.I also have the sacred bag of animal bones I scatter on a sacred blanket courtesy of my Metis’ grandma through my Metis’ mother. I’m now the keeper of the bones. Predicts the future rather then dwelling on the past.
Of course there’s a margin of error. It predicts coming events amazingly accurate but the years are way off. As an example I was supposed to drown 7 years ago but I live on a lake and spend a lot of summer on Lake Michigan boating and in the evening carousing on docks in the U.S. and Canada.
investors act as though future prices/trends/returns are unknowable
Very wise. No one would ever leave the house if they fixated on all the ways that could end badly. Which goes to probability assessment.Actually, it has always amazed me that investors act as though future prices/trends/returns are unknowable and cannot be anticipated because that view is not only obviously false but also clearly at odds with the way they navigate through their lives. The future is not an epistemological blank wall. In fact, our every decision, every conclusion --- even our physical movements are are based on conscious or unconsious/automatic probability assessments.
Regards, Dick