For future income and capital preservation. I use equities for capital appreciation (growth). I appreciate the reply.
CEF Holdings --- June 2026
- Thread starter dickoncapecod
- Start date
Small buy (DCA essentially) , broker notification makes sense. Or a GTC limit order. Thanks.
Ended up with a bit more GOF @ $11.05 - day's low was $11.04. 52-wk low $10.54.
Gotcha. Missed it "by that much", as Maxwell Smart said. My WDI $13.50 limit order missed with a close of $13.51. Try again tomorrow with a $13.45 order set up now.
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COcheesehead
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
GOF reinvested today. For some reason that seems faster than previous.
Reinvested at 10.78.
PaulR888
Recycles dryer sheets
About 13 years ago when I retired early, I learned about bond CEFs by following Mariana Farina Bush at Wells Fargo. She taught me investors buy CEFs for yield, yield, yield. I never considered any other reason.
stefansm
Recycles dryer sheets
As the macro fundamentals are the key factors driving our CEFs, here is the job openings data for April.
My interpretation: It shows an expanding economy and implies fundamental support for the current bull market (i.e it is not driven by irrational exuberance yet, though that will also come in, and indicate the top ...):
www.cnbc.com
My interpretation: It shows an expanding economy and implies fundamental support for the current bull market (i.e it is not driven by irrational exuberance yet, though that will also come in, and indicate the top ...):
Job openings in April surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million for the month, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month.
On the surface this sounds very supportive of economic growth. Reading the details leaves me a bit less optimistic. What defines a big rise in openings, yet leaves companies slow to fill those jobs? Skills mismatches? Lack of confidence. Worker shortages, due to skill mismatches or no warm bodies? If the jobs cannot be filled, how can that contribute to GDP or productivity?As the macro fundamentals are the key factors driving our CEFs, here is the job openings data for April.
My interpretation: It shows an expanding economy and implies fundamental support for the current bull market (i.e it is not driven by irrational exuberance yet, though that will also come in, and indicate the top ...):
Job openings in April surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million for the month, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month.
Is this an indication that companies are looking (competing?) for people with strong AI skills (fishing?), but unwilling to hire anyone without strong credentials?
"Job openings hit their highest level in nearly two years during April while hiring fell sharply, according to a government report Tuesday that showed rising demand but also slow hiring in the labor market."
"In broad terms, the report reflects the continuing low-hire, low-fire environment that has characterized the labor market since early 2025. Weekly jobless claims have held low except for a brief spikes while the unemployment rate has barely budged at 4.3%."
"Quits, a level of worker mobility and confidence in finding a new job, declined to just under 3 million, down 183,000 and the lowest level since August 2020."
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dickoncapecod
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Not worth a debate, but I'd just point out that the last time WDI washed around recent prices was when the Fed funds rate was 5.4%, and since then WDI has raised its still overearned distribution twice. I'm not buying it with capital appreciation as a goal, but the factors mentioned above give me reasonable confidence that it's market price is unlikely to tank.
Regards, Dick
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dickoncapecod
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Hi stats are what they are, and we need to be aware of / respond to them. But FWIW, the response rate for JOLTS is among the lowest, and modeling off a 30-35% response rate isn't like counting heads. That's why I like the ADP jobs data --- they DO payrolls, so rather are at least starting with an actual headcount.As the macro fundamentals are the key factors driving our CEFs, here is the job openings data for April.
My interpretation: It shows an expanding economy and implies fundamental support for the current bull market (i.e it is not driven by irrational exuberance yet, though that will also come in, and indicate the top ...):
Job openings in April surged to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that available employment hit 7.6 million for the month, a surge of 731,000 from the prior month.
Regards, Dick
BuckeyesRC
Recycles dryer sheets
No debate from me. If perchance we do see rates go up by the end of the year, it wouldn't surprise me to see WDI's discount widen again. That wouldn't stop me from buying it, though.
stefansm
Recycles dryer sheets
@dickoncapecod , @DrVenture : For precise data (i.e. not stats) - I am watching the continued unemployment claims as published every week by the St. Louis Fed, as its trend (up/down) combined with the S&P trend is the best predictor of an incoming recession/crisis. Here:
Shaded areas in the chart above indicate US recessions. What you can see is every recession has been predicted by the trend in continued claims turning UP. You can clearly see, as we lived it, the 2000-2003 dot com bust, the 2008 great recession and the Covid recession.
So, where are we now?
Well, below, you can see that, after it trended up in 2023 and 2024, it turned around and started to trend down in 2025, and it is now clearly trending down.
What does this mean?
It means companies are hiring more than they are firing, so more employment is created than destroyed, despite all the fired government employees in 2025 and despite all the doom and gloom that “AI will kill all jobs”. This, below, shows the economy is going strong and expanding:
The other sign of confidence in the economy, outside employment data, is the stock market.
This is a bull market, which started in 2023 and continues strongly. The stock market is the key leading economic indicator (i.e can “see around the corner”) and can predict the economy for the next 6 months on average.
Taken together, the stock market trend AND the continued claims trend are , IMO, the best indicator for the near future of the economy. And now, they are saying: the economy is expanding.
Here is one last piece of data, which I borrowed from another forum, posted by our contributor AGC.
This is an estimate from Goldman Sachs Investment research (GIR):
A strong Q1 earnings season, which delivered 26% year-over-year S&P 500 EPS growth, has reaffirmed our bullish view on US equities. GIR has raised their year-end S&P 500 target from 7600 to 8000, driven by a higher EPS growth forecast of 24% year-over-year. While uncertainty around AI and the macroeconomic outlook may limit multiple expansion, we believe rising AI capex will continue to drive robust earnings growth, with GIR projecting that the beneficiaries of AI investment will account for roughly half of S&P 500 EPS growth this year.
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Really impressive charting. Thanks so much. You are definitely becoming more skillful in your explanations. Thanks for keeping us informed. You already know what's in the back of my mind
COcheesehead
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
What?Really impressive charting. Thanks so much. You are definitely becoming more skillful in your explanations. Thanks for keeping us informed. You already know what's in the back of my mind
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dickoncapecod
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Agreed. Continuing claims are a strong indicator.
Regards, Dick
While I appreciate the well-thought out charts and explanations. My concern is with what the market does (on average) 6 months before the jobless claims actually begin to turn up, and another 3-4 months before we get the recession confirmation. What helps identify that situation?
Also, is it not possible to have a recession without big job losses in a very tight labor market? Which was actually my original point?
Google says, "Yes, recessions can and have occurred without massive layoffs or severe jumps in the headline unemployment rate. In fact, an economy can experience periods of economic contraction or output decline while maintaining strong job growth, primarily because businesses may hoard labor due to skills shortages or because job creation simply stagnates rather than turning into mass firings."
That sounds a lot like what the linked BLS report describes. I am not predicting, just Wond'ring Aloud. And feeling a bit cautious.
Also, is it not possible to have a recession without big job losses in a very tight labor market? Which was actually my original point?
Google says, "Yes, recessions can and have occurred without massive layoffs or severe jumps in the headline unemployment rate. In fact, an economy can experience periods of economic contraction or output decline while maintaining strong job growth, primarily because businesses may hoard labor due to skills shortages or because job creation simply stagnates rather than turning into mass firings."
That sounds a lot like what the linked BLS report describes. I am not predicting, just Wond'ring Aloud. And feeling a bit cautious.
stefansm
Recycles dryer sheets
The continued claims chart I posted shows every recession that occurred since 1967. This is as long as this data series goes. The BLS started publishing the series in 1967. The CC series includes 59 years of market history, and all the latest recessions. And, you can see that every single recession since 1967 was predicted and coincidental with the Continued Claims trend going up. And there was no CC uptrend without a recession, and no recession without CC uptrend.
So, if Google says what you quoted above, I am curious to know what recession(s) is it referring to, cause it didn't happen in the last 60 years since the CC data was created and published. Before 1967, this data was not available to use as a quantitative indicator of unemployment. I wouldn't trust that Google vague statement without a specific quantitative example.
Also, look up the NBER definition of recession: basically economic contraction with rising unemployment. So, in a recession, continued claims rise by definition. Without CC rising, NBER won't declare a recession. For instance, in 2022, as the CC didn't change to trend up, we didn't have a recession, though the economy contracted.
So, to identify, check the trends of both S&P AND CC. If CC is on trend up and S&P on trend down, we will be having a recession.
How do you identify and qualify trends? I would use a long term MA like 12 months on a monthly chart. Just one method to identify trend changes.
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BuckeyesRC
Recycles dryer sheets
ADS pointed out this morning in his newsletter update that the Eaton Vance floating rate funds once again cut distributions for June, which he mostly credits to borrowers refinancing into tighter spreads. This continues to be a headwind for BDCs and CLO equity as well and they can't really get over the hump even though rates haven't moved. I wonder if we will see JFR and some of the others follow with cuts in the coming months as distributions continue to be stretched.
@BuckeyesRC Sorry newbie to these CEF threads but who is ADS and what is the newsletter exactly? I googled ADS investing newsletter but didn't getting anything obviously helpful.....
BuckeyesRC
Recycles dryer sheets
Sorry, got ahead of myself, short for ADS Analytics. Systematic Income Investing – Generating income with a systematic investment approach but also is accessible through Seeking Alpha (which I know a number of posters here use).
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dickoncapecod
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Hi. I'm not sure one can generalize off EV policy that appears to keep distributions close to distributable earnings when other management firms like Nuveen and Blackrock happily use ROC to supplement NII in order to maintain the illusion of superior performance. The vast majority of investors don't know or care about the composition of their distributions. That's why I'm okay with JFR.
Regards, Dick
COcheesehead
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
JFR already carries a significant discount, close to a 52 week low. Some of the private credit risk is reflected in the market price. It’s also a nice play for rising rates.
PaulR888
Recycles dryer sheets
Hi Dick .... Nuveen and BlackRock are reputable firms. I always thought the ROC is ultimately an accounting issue that is finally determined at year end. Could it be a reputable firm uses ROC as an interim move to keep consistency of distributions for the benefit of investors instead of the more nefarious motive of giving the illusion of superior performance?
Flieger
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Going to watch today and may jump in today on the "news" reaction with some small buys to my CEF's to increase Div for June/July.
Flieger
Flieger
OP
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dickoncapecod
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Well it could be accounting, but it isn't. And Nuveen at least is not trying to fool anybody (in theory), so it's not particularly nafarious either. When they "enhanced" a number of CEF's distributions several years ago with ROC, they actually publicized it as a way to earn income AND access your principal! They want folks to treat many of their income products as annuities! IMO Blackrock is just fooling folks.
Regards, Dick
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