CEF Holdings --- June 2026

PDI three month with 4-DMA. Seems OK for now?


20260606_141009.jpg
 
richardsok said:
Thanks for the timely analysis, Dick. Have to concur, though we might not have to wait very long for a rate increase.. I already jettisoned the last of my tradeable equities and added to SDS and to MINT, but I was curious to read earlier you sold off a big block of Pimco CEFs and you say today you may sell more. I've been watching daily (as I have big positions) and see PTY and PDI were only minimally affected..... so far. At least technically, their support at these levels seems OK.

What am I missing?
Click to expand...
Hi. I sold PDI because it is liquid, it was up or barely down, and I had significant profits in the position. It was an easy way to quickly reduce exposure. I don't think a couple PIMCOs will enjoy support while everything else tanks. Too frequent trading for my taste, but going in to next week I'm once again harvesting profits and reducing exposures because I'm happy (here) to give up some maybe/imagined upside to avoid real dollar losses. I just don't think bondish CEFs are going to run away to the upside without me in this environment.
Regards, Dick
 
marget said:

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The 3 year weekly chart is showing 16.40-42 as the mark of interest at this time.
I do think the 16.00 is on the way, but not just yet...imho

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This 9 month daily chart with the 10 ema......really is not indicating it will go below 16.47---at this time---

I will be watching closely, though, this week. Thanks for your pertinent info @dickoncapecod

Also: when we look at the 9 month daily chart, PDI significantly corrects when it is extended from the 10 ema ---we can see this three times.
Right now it is not extended even a tiny bit from the 10 ema. I am -guessing- that, even w/ this news you have posted, it will not go below 16.47 at this time. ---my guess only---
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Hi marget---- I just don't want to watch my portfolio the test PDI 16.47 (much less 16.00) with me fully loaded.
Regards, Dick
 
dickoncapecod said:
The week ended 6/5 was a painful one for most equity and a lot of bondish CEF investors. My usual efforts to summarize technicals proved useless, as the recent high-speed chop has left a mix of contradictory weekly and daily MACDs that reveal nothing. For CEFs the old adage "the trend is your friend" is useless here because there is no discernable "trend" in CEF prices.

Unfortunately, that is not true under the hood where moves toward higher rates were obvious: Fed funds futures predict a very certain rate hike in Q4. The year bill one year forward hit a recent high of 4.46%, although the 5yr-5yrs forward inflation breakeven popular at Fed remained at a benign 2.26%. Finally, portfolio components like IEF HYG MBB and LQD continue to display technical weakness, pressuring NAVs. What's causing this? Well in part, last week's strongish economic data that concluded with an exclamation point from jobs data....

172k jobs accompanied by some upward revisions of past data made it clear that Fed would not be obliged to rescue the economy/job market anytime soon, knocking the knees out from under the last justification for rate cuts. And the unemployment rate remained steady at a historically low 4.3%. Even the flawed JOLTS job openings data pointed to economic strength.

But if you think this week was rough, consider what's coming next: Inflation Week +++!
Although the huge cash flows preparing for the gigantic SpacsX IPO will dominate Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday is the barn burner --- that COULD rock markers badly. On Wednesday, before the markets open, we get CPI, expected +0.5% for the month and a startling +4.2% year over year. Core will be more benign at +0.3% / 2.9% --- proving most of this inflation is oil/energy/fertilizer-driven --- but 4,2% CPI will be the topic for talking heads. THEN the SpaceX IPO opens at its fixed price then trades when it can, sucking almost TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND MILLION DOLLARS and all the media attention out of the room, until 1pm when a 10yr Treasury auction sucks another 39 THOUSAND MILLION bucks out of the system. After work cocktails will drain New York City liquor inventories dry Wednesday.

BOTTOM LINE: IMO it is impossible to predict the effect of Wednesday's enormous cash flows on markets --- as I believe they did late last week and will all of next week. However, as uncertainty increases and liquidity diminishes, it's a pretty good bet bondish income CEFs will have a challenging week. I'm at about 20% cash, may increase that, and even wonder whether it's worth letting the PIMCO ex-date go this time on a lot of stuff. Imagine what it will be like when the next gigantic IPO comes from a company that actually makes money!
Regards, Dick
Click to expand...
You make those numbers extra scary...perhaps your intention. I still catch the billion impact but for those who don't...'ain't no chicken feed'.
 
Just curious if anyone is participating in the tender offer for JOF shares. I own a small amount but after reviewing it looks like I will not be able to participate.

"In order to comply with SEC Rule 14e-4, which prohibits short tendering and
hedged tendering in partial tender offers, you must be net long the amount of
securities you have tendered both at the time of your tender and at the end of
the proration period for the tender offer."
 
Sorry to be late this month. Our ira holdings as a percentage are: gof 18.03%; pdi 15.15; phk 12.94; pfl 8.56; paxs 8.28; kio 7.32; wdi 7.16; pcm 6.92; pdo 6.16: sjb 5.50; dsl 4.05; cash 0.29. sold pgp in March with 34% market gain since it is a stock/bond cef; bought pgp in taxable account. bought sjb as a hedge; it is an inverse etf to high yield bonds. Has gone up and down in inverse relationship with the nav of the cefs we own. Dennis
 
1780846744774.png


My concern is that we see a sustained downturn in discounts like we did in 2022-2023. However, I can't foresee it being the same magnitude or duration since that was derived from rates going from zero to 5%. Since we're already starting at 4.5%, even going to 5.5% or 6% won't have the same effect. And this is just discounts - not including NAV performance.
 
AG-YH said:
View attachment 64146

My concern is that we see a sustained downturn in discounts like we did in 2022-2023. However, I can't foresee it being the same magnitude or duration since that was derived from rates going from zero to 5%. Since we're already starting at 4.5%, even going to 5.5% or 6% won't have the same effect. And this is just discounts - not including NAV performance.
Click to expand...
Agreed, and informative chart. But in discussions of premiums/discounts many retail investors mistakenly imagine that CEF NAVs are stable or function like the par/100/maturity value of bonds.
Regards, Dick
 
Hi Dick .... Do you know a way to see historical leverage for a CEF? GOF currently has 11.7% total leverage. When the PM lowers the leverage, the NAV shrinks. How do you factor that in to your analyses?
 
PaulR888 said:
Hi Dick .... Do you know a way to see historical leverage for a CEF? GOF currently has 11.7% total leverage. When the PM lowers the leverage, the NAV shrinks. How do you factor that in to your analyses?
Click to expand...
Consider a CEF with 12MM in assets and 2MM leverage/borrowing. The NAV is 10MM. Then the manager decides to reduce leverage and the result is 11MM in assets and 1MM in borrowing. All else equal, the NAV is still 10MM... because it's a NET asset value. What DOES change --- again, all else equal, are the earning power and market price volatility of the portfolio, simply because it is smaller.
Regards, Dick
 
AG-YH said:
View attachment 64146

My concern is that we see a sustained downturn in discounts like we did in 2022-2023. However, I can't foresee it being the same magnitude or duration since that was derived from rates going from zero to 5%. Since we're already starting at 4.5%, even going to 5.5% or 6% won't have the same effect. And this is just discounts - not including NAV performance.
Click to expand...
I am thinking the same thing. When I look at the charts for PDI, it is not extended even a little, so it seems likely that the downside should not be extreme.

Here's the only thing that bothers me: something more extreme w/ AI or geo-political or some combination of factors we are unable to think of until after it happens. Some shock like 2008 which brings about a complete revolution in the financial sector due to AI, bitcoin, & a lot of unseen stuff going on that the public doesn't know about----yet.

edit: in 2008, I was 61. I remember that time, so it's in (my time line) ball park as possibly happening again. Financial stuff has changed and is changing dramatically right in front of us. There's something going on over there....Buffalo Springfield....we all knew that line was true in spite of the government-talk.
Judge Judy: Don't tell me it's raining when your peeing on my leg :)
 
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marget said:
I am thinking the same thing. When I look at the charts for PDI, it is not extended even a little, so it seems likely that the downside should not be extreme.

Here's the only thing that bothers me: something more extreme w/ AI or geo-political or some combination of factors we are unable to think of until after it happens. Some shock like 2008 which brings about a complete revolution in the financial sector due to AI, bitcoin, & a lot of unseen stuff going on that the public doesn't know about----yet.
Click to expand...
Hi. Stealing from a Bloomberg Weekend piece, there us an increasing chance that "The
Miraculous AI Future" --- a bubbly mass hallucination of our time --- collapses with serious economic and market consequences. Folks may realize that new technologies take years to be integrated USEFULLY into business, and meanwhile tech companies cherished as fat cash-flow generators have suddenly become cash-flow negative borrowers as they TRY to spend TRILLION$ to beat competitors to dominance and utterly inestimable margins/returns.

IMO signs that the tech market is built on more adrenaline than rational return expectations are here: speculative stories and tech celebrity comments move prices INSTANTANEOUSLY 10-20-30%. Stock prices are ballooned by assumptions that profits (really?) currently driven by the energetic build-out will continue next year, much less in perpetuity. IMO these realities are not news to participants in the game-ified (sports betting?) equity market --- they know the musical chairs game will stop soon, but it will be the other guy who can't find a chair. They can buy shares up 200-300-400-500% THIS YEAR on the greater fool theory.

So why did I put this post in the CEF thread? IMO the collective realization that the King may not be wearing no clothes at all, but is at least down to his underwear, will aggravate credit fears and perhaps widen spreads dramatically. And stock routs almost always take bondish CEFs with them "just because." Bondish CEFs are cheap by most standards --- but investors WILL sell 13% to 16% bondish assets if a stock decine raises unfocused or perhaps warranted fears.

BUT I am not bearish --- just concerned, and once again at a point where I believe CEF price increases in this environment are far less likely that stock-symathetic fear-driven price declines. And since capital preservation is key for me, I am opportuniscally reducing exposures for the moment.
Regards, Dick
PS. I had really hoped to sit on a 13% seldom-traded portfolio until they plant me. But oil prices (etc) and related inflation --- not to mention often contradictory news and policy statements --- have caused me to trade much more than I wished. But a back-of-the-envelope calculation this morning revealed that without that undesirable frequent trading my YTD TR would have been negative vs the current (admittedly unimpressive) 4%. D
 
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dickoncapecod said:
Hi. Stealing from a Bloomberg Weekend piece, there us an increasing chance that "The
Miraculous AI Future" --- a bubbly mass hallucination of our time --- collapses with serious economic and market consequences. Folks may realize that new technologies take years to be integrated USEFULLY into business, and meanwhile tech companies cherished as fat cash-flow generators have suddenly become cash-flow negative borrowers as they TRY to spend TRILLION$ to beat competitors to dominance and utterly inestimable margins/returns.

IMO signs that the tech market is built on more adrenaline than rational return expectations are here: speculative stories and tech celebrity comments move prices INSTANTANEOUSLY 10-20-30%. Stock prices are ballooned by assumptions that profits (really?) currently driven by the energetic build-out will continue next year, much less in perpetuity. IMO these realities are not news to participants in the game-ified (sports betting?) equity market --- they know the musical chairs game will stop soon, but it will be the other guy who can't find a chair. They can buy shares up 200-300-400-500% THIS YEAR on the greater fool theory.

So why did I put this post in the CEF thread? IMO the collective realization that the King may not be wearing no clothes at all, but is at least down to his underwear, will aggravate credit fears and perhaps widen spreads dramatically. And stock routs almost always take bondish CEFs with them "just because." Bondish CEFs are cheap by most standards --- but investors WILL sell 13% to 16% bondish assets if a stock decine raises unfocused or perhaps warranted fears.

BUT I am not bearish --- just concerned, and once again at a point where I believe CEF price increases in this environment are far less likely that stock-symathetic fear-driven price declines. And since capital preservation is key for me, I am opportuniscally reducing exposures for the moment.
Regards, Dick
PS. I had really hoped to sit on a 13% seldom-traded portfolio until they plant me. But oil prices (etc) and related inflation --- not to mention often contradictory news and policy statements --- have caused me to trade much more than I wished. But a back-of-the-envelope calculation this morning revealed that without that undesirable frequent trading my YTD TR would have been negative vs the current (admittedly unimpressive) 4+%. D
Click to expand...
Yup. I don't want to stand still when a panicked mob runs by.
 
I'll be opening Monday with 29% cash & near cash plus 5.5% inverse SDS.

Opposing that, I'll have 46% of port value in the usual Pimco suspects -- but I want to see them actually start slipping before I begin unloading. So far they have been solid at their current support and still no sell indicators popping on my charts. If I am wrong I'll accept whatever my late-to-sell procrastination costs me mid Monday morning or so. I have nothing better to do tomorrow except sip coffee, play computer chess and watch the charts.

An aside: CSWC looks interesting. Any increase in interest rates could be a tailwind, I believe. 12% yield supported by earnings, internally managed, TipRanks score 7/10. Only lightly covered by analysts, though. Ex div 14th+/- monthly. I'm watching.
 
richardsok said:
I'll be opening Monday with 29% cash & near cash plus 5.5% inverse SDS.

Opposing that, I'll have 46% of port value in the usual Pimco suspects -- but I want to see them actually start slipping before I begin unloading. So far they have been solid at their current support and still no sell indicators popping on my charts. If I am wrong I'll accept whatever my late-to-sell procrastination costs me mid Monday morning or so. I have nothing better to do tomorrow except sip coffee, play computer chess and watch the charts.

An aside: CSWC looks interesting. Any increase in interest rates could be a tailwind, I believe. 12% yield supported by earnings, internally managed, TipRanks score 7/10. Only lightly covered by analysts, though. Ex div 14th+/- monthly. I'm watching.
Click to expand...
Hi Richard .... Are you willing to share which of your holdings had a positve day on Friday. I tried to get the conversation going, but nobody responded. Take care .... Paul
 
PaulR888 said:
Hi Richard .... Are you willing to share which of your holdings had a positve day on Friday. I tried to get the conversation going, but nobody responded. Take care .... Paul
Click to expand...
Not Richard:
But----PDO, PDI, PFN---were not indicating they were about to turn over on Fri. PAXS, had a solid down day, but, in all fairness, it had built up a rebound type of pricing. Yet, it will eventually reach, at least, 13.79, but I don't think it will b/f ex-date on Thurs.
That's the thing: the ex-date is very close, but also happening in a very scary news reporting week.
What to do?
I think PDO, PDI, PFN are ok till Thurs. Paxs, i'll be watching. I don't own a single share anywhere near $13. But, I have a lot of stop-loss sells in place.
From Richard's post, he is thinking along the same lines. Friday is another day for sure.
Locking in the July distribution & head for the hills--for me and a number of others in this game for income & preservation of principle.
I do not think PIMCO is going to go under. The minds that deal in debt are the most astute minds in the financial world. Like Dick wrote----none of these bond-ish cefs are going to head UP at some kind of lightening type of speed.

....and somehow by the time this re-arrangement of the financial world settles down, I will buy back in income generating Pimco CEFs & will be owning a whole lot more shares.
 
Paul --- I don't have much to trade any more. PDI and PTY were basically flat those two days.
I had sold the last of VLUE, BGR, and little XDTE. XLK went for a gain. XLE started to roll over from its little bull pop. Will sell Mon morning for small loss, probably.
SDS was my only winner. Up a bit Thursday and strong up Fri.
My little WDI experiment was down, but way too small a position to care.
Everything else is humming quietly in MINT.

Clearly I expect volatile times -- with only the big Pimco exception, which I will sell at once if needed.

Mon and Tues will be interesting -- waiting for unusual prospects of gain, or egg-on-my-face again.
 
Thanks for responding Marget and Richard. I was having a senior moment thinking I was in the buys and sells thread. I didn't mean to divert this thread. I am more interested in stocks or alts that had a green day Friday. I will check back on buys and sells thread.
 
I always checked the European markets in the past to get a hint of what might be in store for today in the U.S. Looks like today could be a doozy.

I have a small amount of cash to gamble on a better future. Always remember as hinted on this thread all sales are going to cash which is trash. Even quicker in a rising inflation environment. “Someday” it will be returning.
 
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Steelpony said:
dickoncapecod


Check out the divisors. You’re good until past age 96. Toss in some dividend cuts, early 90’s.

This isn’t factoring in your high distribution compound rate either. 🤞🏼
Click to expand...
Hi. I don't understand. For the past 10 years since my RMDs started, portfolio income alone has far exceeded RMD, permitting significant reinvestment as well. :confused:?? Also: when my RMDs are taken, only taxes go away ---- the remainder is just invested in a taxable trust.
Regards, Dick
 
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dickoncapecod said:
The week ended 6/5 was a painful one for most equity and a lot of bondish CEF investors. My usual efforts to summarize technicals proved useless, as the recent high-speed chop has left a mix of contradictory weekly and daily MACDs that reveal nothing. For CEFs the old adage "the trend is your friend" is useless here because there is no discernable "trend" in CEF prices.

Unfortunately, that is not true under the hood where moves toward higher rates were obvious: Fed funds futures predict a very certain rate hike in Q4. The year bill one year forward hit a recent high of 4.46%, although the 5yr-5yrs forward inflation breakeven popular at Fed remained at a benign 2.26%. Finally, portfolio components like IEF HYG MBB and LQD continue to display technical weakness, pressuring NAVs. What's causing this? Well in part, last week's strongish economic data that concluded with an exclamation point from jobs data....

172k jobs accompanied by some upward revisions of past data made it clear that Fed would not be obliged to rescue the economy/job market anytime soon, knocking the knees out from under the last justification for rate cuts. And the unemployment rate remained steady at a historically low 4.3%. Even the flawed JOLTS job openings data pointed to economic strength.

But if you think this week was rough, consider what's coming next: Inflation Week +++!
Although the huge cash flows preparing for the gigantic SpacsX IPO will dominate Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday is the barn burner --- that COULD rock markers badly. On Wednesday, before the markets open, we get CPI, expected +0.5% for the month and a startling +4.2% year over year. Core will be more benign at +0.3% / 2.9% --- proving most of this inflation is oil/energy/fertilizer-driven --- but 4,2% CPI will be the topic for talking heads. THEN the SpaceX IPO opens at its fixed price then trades when it can, sucking almost TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND MILLION DOLLARS and all the media attention out of the room, until 1pm when a 10yr Treasury auction sucks another 39 THOUSAND MILLION bucks out of the system. After work cocktails will drain New York City liquor inventories dry Wednesday.

BOTTOM LINE: IMO it is impossible to predict the effect of Wednesday's enormous cash flows on markets --- as I believe they did late last week and will all of next week. However, as uncertainty increases and liquidity diminishes, it's a pretty good bet bondish income CEFs will have a challenging week. I'm at about 20% cash, may increase that, and even wonder whether it's worth letting the PIMCO ex-date go this time on a lot of stuff. Imagine what it will be like when the next gigantic IPO comes from a company that actually makes money!
Regards, Dick
Click to expand...
well said!
 
Steelpony said:
dickoncapecod


Check out the divisors. You’re good until past age 96. Toss in some dividend cuts, early 90’s.

This isn’t factoring in your high distribution compound rate either. 🤞🏼
Click to expand...
Sorry for the OT, but just another reminder why I like Roth 401Ks, Roth conversions, Roth accounts, and taking my RMDs very early in the year. I doubt taxes will ever come down. Too much fiscal irresponsibility and wars to finance. I want to shrink my Traditional IRA, the sooner the better and stunt its growth. There are smarter ways to enjoy the power of compouding without compounding the IOU to the IRS in a Traditional IRA.
 
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