CEF Holdings --- March 2026

[RobLJ]

Worth considering: what do we think the MARKET reaction would be if Fed cuts rates as CPI blows up through 4%? ---- a near certainty given the impact of energy prices on EVERYTHING.....
Regards, Dick

Where is Tall Paul when you need him/her?

 

[marget]

That's nice work, but my more negative views about both stocks and bond-ish stuff flow from more recent technical phenomena with a dash of fundamentals. Bond-ish CEFs are clearly bustola, and now there are weekly MACD sell signals on HYG IEF LQD and MBB --- and these are necessary (but not ALWAYS sufficient) precursors of wider spreads and lower bond prices. Stocks indices have been weakening slowly for months, and (IMO only) the same drivers of a likely bondish dive will also trigger further equity declines.

Finally, again just me, but I can't imagine what news, data, or headline can turn the recent bond and stock downtrends around on a dime --- what appears to be required to stop stocks from breaking long term averages. Crazed inflation headlines are baked in the cake even if the war ends tomorrow. The "Fed's next move is to cut rates" narrative that has persisted for over two years is hanging on by a thread, despite the increasing likelihood of a further economic slowdown. Finally, from other historical data, in a neutral rate environment, 10yrs would typically trade around Fed funds +125-150 basis points. Since the terminal policy rate view is now AT BEST 3.38%, 10yrs may easily migrate upward to a range between 4.5% and 4.75% with overshoot possible to 5+%.
FWIW, Dick

Yes. This is what I meant by the different way I use c-sticks and trends. I just can't see how those charts supporting trending are in any way valid information at this time. Would I consider acting on such chart info? no, definitely not. Why?-------- I'm staring at a war! and the weird stuff we all are seeing, reading, hearing
But, as Dick wrote, "nice work". The way I see it is sorta like this: The words make sense. The chart lines make sense. BUT, everything that's registering in my mind is extremely different.
Now: As Dick has said many times: the yields will not run away, so I think I will move to cash because my common sense tells me to.
FD said he was at 99% MM last week from Greece! All cash & on vacation---go figure
I will not sell everything though in order to keep an eye on stuff.
And, it is possible that world conditions will only get much more entrenched over the summer.

edit: plus those charts don't use c-sticks and for me they are the major voice I listen to.

 

[Karner Blue]

The week ended 3/13 was a very rough and disappointing one for essentially all financial assets, including of course bondish CEFs. ALL CEFs I watch are on weekly MACD sell signals as are portfolio component ETFs HYG LQD MBB and IEF. That is generally consistent with the shift in sentiment seen in underlying implied future rates. Fed funds futures now predict only one rate cut at year end. The year bill one year.forward rose to 3.81% --- as the curve steepened and 2yr yields rose a bit above 1yr rates for the first time in a long while. And while near term inflation estimates rose in sympathy with crude oil and other war-related cost increases, the concurrent reduction in longer term inflation expectations kept Fed's favorite 5yr inflation breakeven 5yrs forward at 2.07%.

Many popular bond CEFs are now trading at 12+% 13+% and as much as 15+%.
Viewed simply as income assets, they are extraordinarily cheap against realistic rate expectations --- at yields not seen since Fed funds were over 5% near the end of the Fed's last tightening cycle. But the fact that they appear cheap does not mean that market prices won't fall further. Investor fear and uncertainty are now driving price declines --- selling continues BECAUSE prices are falling as more investor pain thresholds are crossed with every downdraft. For a while, rational analytics are out the window.

Friday's NAV behavior across the PIMCO suite MAY HAVE provided an explanation (not a excuse) for their recent concerning NAV declines. PIMCO portfolios were likely structured to exploit a steepening of yield curves ---- a principal feature of the firm's expectations for 2026. But from early-mid February until Thursday, the Treasury 2y-30yr spread COLLAPSED from 138 to 112 basis points, seriously damaging all curve steepening positions ---- a time period consistent with PIMCO CEFs' pretty dramatic NAV declines. AND Friday that NAV decline stopped as the curve STEEPENED by about 6 basis. It MIGHT just be happenstance, but I feel confident that "misbehaving" curve steepeners were at least significant contributors to recent sharp NAV declines.

Opinion: next week we get a few bits of economic data that will be overwhelmed by difficult to anticipate Iran war developments --- particularly those bearing on the status of the critical waterway Straint of Hormuz and crude prices. There will likely be a mix of positive and negative market driving headlines / developments. But in the bondish CEF corner, the easiest path is toward lower prices ---- a path that weak technicals suggest may not stop until fear-driven selling ends.
Regards, Dick

Thank you Dick

 

[stefansm]

That's nice work, but my more negative views about both stocks and bond-ish stuff flow from more recent technical phenomena with a dash of fundamentals. Bond-ish CEFs are clearly bustola, and now there are weekly MACD sell signals on HYG IEF LQD and MBB --- and these are necessary (but not ALWAYS sufficient) precursors of wider spreads and lower bond prices. Stocks indices have been weakening slowly for months, and (IMO only) the same drivers of a likely bondish dive will also trigger further equity declines.

Finally, again just me, but I can't imagine what news, data, or headline can turn the recent bond and stock downtrends around on a dime --- what appears to be required to stop stocks from breaking long term averages. Crazed inflation headlines are baked in the cake even if the war ends tomorrow. The "Fed's next move is to cut rates" narrative that has persisted for over two years is hanging on by a thread, despite the increasing likelihood of a further economic slowdown. Finally, from other historical data, in a neutral rate environment, 10yrs would typically trade around Fed funds +125-150 basis points. Since the terminal policy rate view is now AT BEST 3.38%, 10yrs may easily migrate upward to a range between 4.5% and 4.75% with overshoot possible to 5+%.
FWIW, Dick

That's nice work, but my more negative views about both stocks and bond-ish stuff flow from more recent technical phenomena with a dash of fundamentals. Bond-ish CEFs are clearly bustola, and now there are weekly MACD sell signals on HYG IEF LQD and MBB --- and these are necessary (but not ALWAYS sufficient) precursors of wider spreads and lower bond prices. Stocks indices have been weakening slowly for months, and (IMO only) the same drivers of a likely bondish dive will also trigger further equity declines.

Finally, again just me, but I can't imagine what news, data, or headline can turn the recent bond and stock downtrends around on a dime --- what appears to be required to stop stocks from breaking long term averages. Crazed inflation headlines are baked in the cake even if the war ends tomorrow. The "Fed's next move is to cut rates" narrative that has persisted for over two years is hanging on by a thread, despite the increasing likelihood of a further economic slowdown. Finally, from other historical data, in a neutral rate environment, 10yrs would typically trade around Fed funds +125-150 basis points. Since the terminal policy rate view is now AT BEST 3.38%, 10yrs may easily migrate upward to a range between 4.5% and 4.75% with overshoot possible to 5+%.
FWIW, Dick

I base most of my asset allocations on price data. I believe that price aggregates all publicly known and many publicly unknowns. Some pro market actors (hedgies, institutions, etc) who drive the prices know more about the future than what retail does and is publicly available. This is why it is said that the market can see "around the corner", 6 months or so in advance, and the price reflects the repositioning of the main market actors before the data they used becomes public.

I also consider the fundamental data, like the one provided here. It is part of the system. But the key moves in my allocations are done when the price breaks, up or down, over/above some key trigger levels, and when key indicators, showing what the pros do, like the HY Spread below, are changing the market risk on/off status. For me, these are objective, quantitative triggers of re-allocation.

Unlike many here, who try to forecast what will happen, I do not position based on anticipating what could be, but based on reacting to market prices when key levels of support/resistance are broken, and when additional indicators of risk on/off, breadth, etc, combined with fundamental indicators and sentiment indicators start weighing the same way. In this process of re-allocation, I move gradually, becoming more bearish/bullish based on the weight of evidence.

Today, my short term indicators are close to signaling, but not yet, while all long term indicators, technical and fundamental, are favorable. Next week this all could change, and I will change with it if that happens.

This, below, is a close-up of what I showed in my previous post (using C-sticks, this time, Marget ). It shows a trading range for S&P, with support at 6500 for S&P. A dive below 6500 and below the 200 MA will indicate the uptrend is broken and the trading range you see has been a distribution (smart money selling). This will make me get more in cash/managed futures hedge. See red arrow. But if the support holds and the market goes above 7000, this trading range in a bull market has been actually an accumulation, where smart money paused for buying more at stable/lower prices before moving up. See green arrow. There is no way to know now what will be, IMO. So, I'll let the price tell me:

 

[marget]

Your chart work is worthwhile. I sincerely meant it when I posted "nice work" as i'm 100% sure Dick meant it as well.
I just can't handle looking and pulling up all kinds of charts like you do. It's visually too much for me.
But, that SPDR chart w/ the c-stick is a stick that's yelling to me: I'm headed down.
Then I look at the -vast- space there of where it's headed, and it looks pretty empty of marks. So, a vast empty space is problematic for me. I need to see other c-sticks to get an idea (for myself) where it's headed.
Now: if the war ends tomorrow, then the market will fly up. no question about it
So: I just don't see this war ending any time soon; seems like it is digging in
When all I see are c-sticks saying: I could go either way and so far that way has been downward
It's like Judge Judy: don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining

Main thing: it works for your style of investing. I've followed Dick from the beginning and his gut is pretty much on the mark. Probably due to his trading experience. When that man get antsy and the c-sticks are antsy along w/ him----------i get very very wary

 

[richardsok]

What I admire about some a youze -- (you know who you are!) -- is your ability to make really BIG conviction trades. I have always moved too incrementally even when my indicators were screaming "TRADE!". Moved correctly in '08 and in '22 -- but way too tardily -- and it cost me. But I've been getting better at it. I now remain 70% in cash/MM (zero common equities other than NML) Ditto wife & daughter money. --- and tomorrow will unload my last of GGN. (Gold slipping WAS a surprise.)

Plan for Monday: Feel it's too late to sell my preferred ETFs/ CEFs, so will just ride with what's left along with the remaining Pimco crumbs. Still tempting to pick up more PHK nickels as they crash in retail panic. -- but will hold there also. Feel ready for the tsunami, if one comes, so bring it on. (Miss the satisfaction of big monthly divs, though.)

I worry for my B&H friends. Don't dare make suggestions unless they specifically ask.

 

[Old Dog Seeks New Tricks]

Where is Tall Paul when you need him/her?

oh for tall paul - my heart be still / nice to know he is not forgotten / i met him once in the olden days / he was crazy tall

 

[COcheesehead]

Futures are up

 

[fjpajerski]

Another great looking chart. But I've been thru a bunch of these since the late 60's. Just when I thought (with much time spent doing so) I had a great tool to guide my investing ... disaster. Didn't take long to realize that I was in the arena with smarter and experienced pro's using better tools and more information. So ... just keep it quick and easy and simple, and let the market tell you what to do.

If I now want guidance from a tool, a free Stockcharts plot of the weekly market price for the past year against a MA(13) line does the job. I buy/sell how and when the lines cross. Easy peasy with little thought/time needed. Don't even feel the need now for the basic MACD or RSI info. Whether you instead use EMA, or a shorter/longer period than 13, or a longer/shorter view than a year, or how much you exit/reenter ... just whatever floats your boat. All this is a personal thing of course. No right or wrong or judgement here.

BTW #1 ... my PIMCOs are now just PDI, PDO, PFN, PHK. Recently abandoned PAXS. Sold the toehold in PTY many months ago ... I don't invest based on hopes and wishes. Despite nice internal metrics, its miserable TR for some time now doesn't buy groceries or gas. These (and other ETFs/CEFs) are in an income-focused FIDO IRA-Rollover account to pay monthly expenses, and with the excess distributions selectively reinvested. The PIMCOs are instead DRIPed, of course.
BTW #2 ... my chasing growth itch just has to be scratched. With play money in a taxable account, now have highly profitable results from ATI, RTX, RKLB (Aerospace/defense) and VELO (additive manufacturing (i.e. 3-D printing)). Trading with very good results, but now have to hold them for a while to make the significant CapGains long, tax-wise.
BTW#3 ... SA still is of great help to me and well worth its cost. Doesn't take long to recognize just the few authors/commenters there to pay attention to. For free help that may suffice for you, see the "Armchair Income" channel on YouTube. Its focus is on holdings with a good TR that are also yielding 8-12%.

--- Frank

 

[richardsok]

Outstanding post, Frank. Bravo! Could you share some of the SA authors you find most valuable?

 

[FlyingCircus]

The week ended 3/13 was a very rough and disappointing one for essentially all financial assets, including of course bondish CEFs. ALL CEFs I watch are on weekly MACD sell signals as are portfolio component ETFs HYG LQD MBB and IEF. That is generally consistent with the shift in sentiment seen in underlying implied future rates. Fed funds futures now predict only one rate cut at year end. The year bill one year.forward rose to 3.81% --- as the curve steepened and 2yr yields rose a bit above 1yr rates for the first time in a long while. And while near term inflation estimates rose in sympathy with crude oil and other war-related cost increases, the concurrent reduction in longer term inflation expectations kept Fed's favorite 5yr inflation breakeven 5yrs forward at 2.07%.

Many popular bond CEFs are now trading at 12+% 13+% and as much as 15+%.
Viewed simply as income assets, they are extraordinarily cheap against realistic rate expectations --- at yields not seen since Fed funds were over 5% near the end of the Fed's last tightening cycle. But the fact that they appear cheap does not mean that market prices won't fall further. Investor fear and uncertainty are now driving price declines --- selling continues BECAUSE prices are falling as more investor pain thresholds are crossed with every downdraft. For a while, rational analytics are out the window.

Friday's NAV behavior across the PIMCO suite MAY HAVE provided an explanation (not a excuse) for their recent concerning NAV declines. PIMCO portfolios were likely structured to exploit a steepening of yield curves ---- a principal feature of the firm's expectations for 2026. But from early-mid February until Thursday, the Treasury 2y-30yr spread COLLAPSED from 138 to 112 basis points, seriously damaging all curve steepening positions ---- a time period consistent with PIMCO CEFs' pretty dramatic NAV declines. AND Friday that NAV decline stopped as the curve STEEPENED by about 6 basis. It MIGHT just be happenstance, but I feel confident that "misbehaving" curve steepeners were at least significant contributors to recent sharp NAV declines.

Opinion: next week we get a few bits of economic data that will be overwhelmed by difficult to anticipate Iran war developments --- particularly those bearing on the status of the critical waterway Straint of Hormuz and crude prices. There will likely be a mix of positive and negative market driving headlines / developments. But in the bondish CEF corner, the easiest path is toward lower prices ---- a path that weak technicals suggest may not stop until fear-driven selling ends.
Regards, Dick

Love that succinct summary after a great focus on NAV behavior - the easiest path is down for now. Hopefully mildly.

 

[dickoncapecod]

FWIW and for better or worse, I executed fairly radical surgery on my portfolio consistent with my weekend worry posts.
Regards, Dick

 

[Flieger]

FWIW and for better or worse, I executed fairly radical surgery on my portfolio consistent with my weekend worry posts.
Regards, Dick

So reductions, at the decreased PIMCO pricing with corresponding Capital loss? Just making sure I am clear. Looking at mine as well....

Flieger

 

[dickoncapecod]

So reductions, at the decreased PIMCO pricing with corresponding Capital loss? Just making sure I am clear. Looking at mine as well....

Flieger

I took some reasonable profits today. I sold everything at more than Friday's close/mark. The modest losses occurred Friday. Particularly in an IRA, investment is a mark-to-market world. I've done sorta okay --- but not great through this most recent swoon. For example selling PDI in the mid 18s and buying it back mid 17s, then got long for distributions and now have little exposure in preparation for (maybe) big swoon 2.0. If a bottom is going to form, it should start soon, and since yields change far more slowly than prices, attractive yields aren't going to run away from me
Regards, Dick

 

[Flieger]

I took some reasonable profits today. I sold everything at more than Friday's close/mark. The modest losses occurred Friday. Particularly in an IRA, investment is a mark-to-market world. I've done sorta okay --- but not great through this most recent swoon. For example selling PDI in the mid 18s and buying it back mid 17s, then got long for distributions and now have little exposure in preparation for (maybe) big swoon 2.0. If a bottom is going to form, it should start soon, and since yields change far more slowly than prices, attractive yields aren't going to run away from me
Regards, Dick

Ok. You have always been able to "take the hits" better than I have learned to do. I bought PDI last week (prior to Ex-Div) higher than current price. Was hoping to get out closer to my buy in.

You have told me before to not worry about (so much) about that, but I still struggle. I'll get the Div's from the PIMCO's which will help.

Flieger

 

[dickoncapecod]

Ok. You have always been able to "take the hits" better than I have learned to do. I bought PDI last week (prior to Ex-Div) higher than current price. Was hoping to get out closer to my buy in.

You have told me before to not worry about (so much) about that, but I still struggle. I'll get the Div's from the PIMCO's which will help.

Flieger

I know it's hard to let go of cost-basis thinking. But when a new kid got a tryout on a trading desk, his adoption of mark-to-market thinking was a critical indicator of future success. That said, cost-basis thinking has a place in accounting and performance computations, but not in a trading or portfolio management environment.

If a kid buys something for 100 and it falls to 98, that's life ---- but if his BEHAVIOR is centered on "recovering" the 100, his subsequent trading decisions will be handicapped by waiting and hoping and probably bad. I used to point out to them the radical conceptual difference between winning and losing. If the kid buys something for 100 and it goes to 102, he NEVER spends a moment hoping it will return to his cost basis of 100. But even there, cost basis thinking needs to be abandoned. Suppose The kid's position runs up over a few days to a sale at 109. Typically, his P&L reporting will be something like: UP 2, then UP 4, then DOWN 3, then UP 2, and finally UP 4 (NOT UP 9) the day he sells it.
Regards, Dick

 

[marget]

FWIW and for better or worse, I executed fairly radical surgery on my portfolio consistent with my weekend worry posts.
Regards, Dick

I did the same.
What i'm looking at is the monthly income goal is still being met.
All the excess was sold today, so now there is sufficient $$ to invest once a bottom is reached. Now, the bottom is a real iffy thing at this time. I'm thinking a real solid bottom may take a couple months. I hope less than that, but I'm not counting on it.
Difference Now: I will not be buying any of the CEFs I own on-the-way-down. I need to discipline myself to obey the weekly MACD and the c-sticks. I'll look more closely tonight, but I just don't see a single c-stick that says: i'm ready to Not go lower.
PDI can easily ---on a social media day- break lower than the $17.38 mark. A bit of long-legs is forming and that's an iffy attitude.
PAXS is flirting w/ a $14.36. There's a clear chance that it will not be satisfied until it breaks that mark. That trend line touches $14.35 ---which is from that $12.57 from 2023. So, to my eye, below 14.36 to 12.57 is an area I will buy in.

 

[marget]

I know it's hard to let go of cost-basis thinking. But when a new kid got a tryout on a trading desk, his adoption of mark-to-market thinking was a critical indicator of future success. That said, cost-basis thinking has a place in accounting and performance computations, but not in a trading or portfolio management environment.

If a kid buys something for 100 and it falls to 98, that's life ---- but if his BEHAVIOR is centered on "recovering" the 100, his subsequent trading decisions will be handicapped by waiting and hoping and probably bad. I used to point out to them the radical conceptual difference between winning and losing. If the kid buys something for 100 and it goes to 102, he NEVER spends a moment hoping it will return to his cost basis of 100. But even there, cost basis thinking needs to be abandoned. Suppose The kid's position runs up over a few days to a sale at 109. Typically, his P&L reporting will be something like: UP 2, then UP 4, then DOWN 3, then UP 2, and finally UP 4 (NOT UP 9) the day he sells it.
Regards, Dick

I don't use cost basis in the way you are describing; or, I don't think I use cb in the way you are describing. I am never centered on "getting back" to some cost basis. I use them as marks. Like, I will keep a lot at a certain price to just to keep that price in mind. waiting and hoping have no part of my cb thinking

 

[DrVenture]

Worth considering: what do we think the MARKET reaction would be if Fed cuts rates as CPI blows up through 4%? ---- a near certainty given the impact of energy prices on EVERYTHING.....
Regards, Dick

Do they have the votes? I agree it would be deeply unwise. The inflation (stagflation?) wolf would be howling at the door.

 

[Steelpony]

Do they have the votes? I agree it would be deeply unwise. The inflation (stagflation?) wolf would be howling at the door.

You and @dickoncapecod are scaring the youngins. 20% prime rate, 12% CD’s, about 10% inflation, one waited for 20-30 minutes in a line to get gas if there was any left, massave layoffs…..

Stagflation lasted about 14 years. Along with HY CD’s banks paid about 3-5% and I could borrow money for 9-12% and I did.

I forgot the exact definition of Stagflation but I guess it’s your life experiences.
I’m really surprised at a lot of the posters reactions so far.

Every CEF seems like a once in a lifetime CD to me.

 

[Bill E]

Since mid-Feb the 2s-30s spread shrank pretty dramatically. Today it bounced out 6bps. For duration-weighted spread trades at bond fund size, curve trades drive very large dollar amount valuation changes. PIMCO said in a lot of their website analytics/talks that they believed the curve would steepen this year --- and they walk their talk. Large curve steepeners + negative marks during the curve contraction might account for the substantial NAV drops. Only The Shadow knows for sure.
Regards, Dick

Click to expand...

Last week I wrote: "Makes sense Dick. As you've noted the NAV decreases have not been explained by proxy components like HYG, MBB etc."

That was true during late February. Pimco NAVs were declining while MBB, LQD and others were increasing - and HYG was sideways.

But since the beginning of March all have been in correlated decline (as I think Dick noted)-- at least until positive up tics Friday and today.

Bill

 

[FlyingCircus]

At this "cliffhanger" time, I'm reminded of a contrarily confident post of IncomeOriented's last November -
I could hold it for a year and be 18% wrong and break even.

OTOH, I did a crude backtest of a monthly "sell PDI at close ex-div / buy back 5 days before xdiv", during the IR spike crash of '22. Total return (including divs) was about -12 to -13%, dominated by ugly months in April, May, June and October. TR of buy & hold starting mid-January 22: -13 to -14%. So, a wash. Staying out in cash throughout that environment was the much better play. Many caveats with that fixed-date fixed-approach historical, of course.

 

[dickoncapecod]

You and @dickoncapecod are scaring the youngins. 20% prime rate, 12% CD’s, about 10% inflation, one waited for 20-30 minutes in a line to get gas if there was any left, massave layoffs…..

Stagflation lasted about 14 years. Along with HY CD’s banks paid about 3-5% and I could borrow money for 9-12% and I did.

I forgot the exact definition of Stagflation but I guess it’s your life experiences.
I’m really surprised at a lot of the posters reactions so far.

Every CEF seems like a once in a lifetime CD to me.

Hi. The youngins really have nothing to be concerned about. It's really important not to let casual references to extraordinary and rare historical events color serious investment decisions. Inflation is running about 3% and is likely to rise a bit because of obvious war effects. Fed funds are at 3.62% and Fed isn't likely to change its policy rate for months, and then in its typical measured and well-telegraphed pace. The economy surprised by only growing 1+% last quarter --- that's: GREW 1+%. And it's estimated to be running at 2+% this quarter.

This is not 1973 or 1981, it's not the crash of '87 or the 2008 GFC. We are feeling the impact of a war-related oil price increase, but instead of being reliant on oil imports, the US is the #1 or #2 global oil PRODUCER and a net energy exporter.
FWIW, Dick

 

[RobLJ]

This is not the 70's or the GFC, emphatically true, so far. How many times we can screw up without feeling affects is another question, the answer to which I have no clue.
While the US exports a lot of refined, we also import a lot of heavy oil to refine to export and export light crude. We cannot turn our heavy oil refineries on a dime, hence we are not impervious to world crude.
Growing up in Oklahoma in the 60's and 70's I have always been fascinated by how we are/aren't linked to global oil prices.
The impact to US will be less than most other states, but it will not be slight--if the Straits continue over a long period to be closed. Short-term, that's not a big deal.

 

[RobLJ]

I used, in the late 90's, to drive up from Houston to Granbury to help my Aged P's with my twin, who was failing rapidly. I am an extremely lucky person; the genes could have got me or both of us, but just my fraternal twin
However, they were fracking the Barnett Shale, so everytime I drove up, usually every two weekends, I would see more drill teams, particularly out off of FM 6, which was the shortcut to Granbury. Now they are starting to re-frack the Barnett (fracking is far more sophisticated than in the 90's). We can produce a lot, but refining is another question. Make of this what you will. My take is that the longer the Straits are shut, the worse it will be for US and foreign stocks. Call me Captain Obvious.