CEF Holdings --- March 2026

[MRG]

Nope. But they don't on any of the transactions. I just thought the difference in the Activity and Orders for the 2 transactions was odd.



Flieger

Record date is 3/18, the same as the ex date. You should get the distribution. At least I did a few months ago when I got the same message.

My explanation for the difference between messages is that data is likely pulled from a message description provided by Neos and its erroneously different between the funds.

 

[Semi-Retyrd]

Ok, bad terminology. I am assuming that NAV is what the underlying assets are fairly valued at. Is that not correct? Or can it change significantly and permanently to the downside?

I know that any asset can trade, short term, below true value. But if the market is truly efficient, it will eventually recover, correct?

Understand that I am not making an argument, rather unsure of the principle.

If a fund relies on making money by borrowing money at a low rate and lending it at a higher rate, then the money it makes is net interest income or NII. In a very simplistic sense this is what bondish CEFs do.

If such a CEF then makes distributions to its shareholders that are larger than its NII, this eventually forces it to sell some of its loans which in turn reduces its NAV. This process is called destructive return of capital and happens from time to time with some CEFs.

Real life is more complicated in that the NAV measures the market value of the existing loan portfolio and can go up or down depending on market participants willing to buy or sell the loans or bonds in the secondary market. In thinly traded loans/bonds it can be very difficult to measure their true value at any moment and if a fund were forced to sell them to make a distribution, this could reduce the NAV more than one would expect. Also in real life CEFs can make or lose additional revenue by trading loans/bonds at a profit or loss, hedging interest rates and trading futures and other derivatives.

Bottom line - If a CEF makes distributions substantially larger than its NII over long periods of time, one might expect the NAV to deteriorate and never recover unless or until the distributions are cut.

 

[IncomeOriented]

LOL - people keep telling me "not to worry". I am honestly, not worried. I am always making decisions on where is the best place to invest, at any particular moment. I do think that my questions may induce worry in some quarters.

For instance, If I am sitting on a pile of cash, where/when to deploy. I can always hold cash for a better entry level into bond CEFs, growth equities, even bond oefs. Better understanding the nature of an asset seems key to making a decision.

In this particular case, I am curious about the downside risk of adding to GOF or PFN at this moment in time. I own both. My current sense is to wait a bit longer.

True. You buy too soon on the way down, feels bad. Buy too late on the way up, still feels bad. That said, I’m most experienced at buying at the top, not intentionally, just lucky that way.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Ok, bad terminology. I am assuming that NAV is what the underlying assets are fairly valued at. Is that not correct? Or can it change significantly and permanently to the downside?

I know that any asset can trade, short term, below true value. But if the market is truly efficient, it will eventually recover, correct?

Understand that I am not making an argument, rather unsure of the principle.

Okay, just my views:
1. NAV is indeed the mark to market value of the portfolio assets. As you can see on any cefconnect chart, the NAV not only can but does change, and (for example) during the last Fed tightening cycle, NAVs fell significantly and it is unlikely they will ever return to previous highs. In the mid-teens,
2. Even if markets are efficient, NO asset is assured to "recover" ---- and recover to what? PDI's NAV ain't returning to $32 in our lifetimes. BUT consider CO'S post below. IF you reinvest distributions, there is a very good chance that your PDI wealth --- the market value of all your growing PDI holdings, will increase through time. Check a "growth of $10k" type chart. (Aside: in "efficient markets" traded asset prices theoretically immediately reflect all relevant news/data. If the news is bad.....well, prices will quickly reflect that and fall.)
Regards, Dick

 

[DrVenture]

If a fund relies on making money by borrowing money at a low rate and lending it at a higher rate, then the money it makes is net interest income or NII. In a very simplistic sense this is what bondish CEFs do.

If such a CEF then makes distributions to its shareholders that are larger than its NII, this eventually forces it to sell some of its loans which in turn reduces its NAV. This process is called destructive return of capital and happens from time to time with some CEFs.

Real life is more complicated in that the NAV measures the market value of the existing loan portfolio and can go up or down depending on market participants willing to buy or sell the loans or bonds in the secondary market. In thinly traded loans/bonds it can be very difficult to measure their true value at any moment and if a fund were forced to sell them to make a distribution, this could reduce the NAV more than one would expect. Also in real life CEFs can make or lose additional revenue by trading loans/bonds at a profit or loss, hedging interest rates and trading futures and other derivatives.

Bottom line - If a CEF makes distributions substantially larger than its NII over long periods of time, one might expect the NAV to deteriorate and never recover unless or until the distributions are cut.

Excellent response. I was aware of much of that, though this really puts it all into perspective regarding NAV, Thanks.

 

[DrVenture]

Okay, just my views:
1. NAV is indeed the mark to market value of the portfolio assets. As you can see on any cefconnect chart, the NAV not only can but does change, and (for example) during the last Fed tightening cycle, NAVs fell significantly and it is unlikely they will ever return to previous highs. In the mid-teens,
2. Even if markets are efficient, NO asset is assured to "recover" ---- and recover to what? PDI's NAV ain't returning to $32 in our lifetimes. BUT consider CO'S post below. IF you reinvest distributions, there is a very good chance that your PDI wealth --- the market value of all your growing PDI holdings, will increase through time. Check a "growth of $10k" type chart. (Aside: in "efficient markets" traded asset prices theoretically immediately reflect all relevant news/data. If the news is bad.....well, prices will quickly reflect that and fall.)
Regards, Dick

Thanks. Great info. Every day is a learning experience, if one asks the correct questions!

 

[dickoncapecod]

Excellent response. I was aware of much of that, though this really puts it all into perspective regarding NAV, Thanks.

Just a mild correction that makes a difference: about a third of CEF portfolio assets are leveraged to likely take advantage of financing vs asset yield spreads. That means 66% of most portfolios are just another (sometimes very complex) bond fund.
Regards, Dick

 

[Steelpony]

LOL - people keep telling me "not to worry". I am honestly, not worried. I am always making decisions on where is the best place to invest, at any particular moment. I do think that my questions may induce worry in some quarters.

For instance, If I am sitting on a pile of cash, where/when to deploy. I can always hold cash for a better entry level into bond CEFs, growth equities, even bond oefs. Better understanding the nature of an asset seems key to making a decision.

In this particular case, I am curious about the downside risk of adding to GOF or PFN at this moment in time. I own both. My current sense is to wait a bit longer.

We’ve held GOF for years since it was guided by Minerd. In the past the distribution was around 11% of it’s value. Nothing more to say about PFN.

If by “risk” you mean loss of value like equity risk GOF you know is a hybrid.

If for any IOU bond CEF types I regard risk as drops in distribution.

In the context of markets all equity or bond types have risk every day that I pay management to manage but as backup we invested excess to needs mainly to cover distribution variance.

Did the premiums disappear by management error or short term flight to cash. I don’t see any management problems. They’re plenty of flight to cash in all investment areas though.

Same old same old. Some won’t invest if headlines state something is overvalued and some won’t invest because the current sale is better then most. Maybe the odds seem to favor after 2 mil years we’re lucky? to be present for the end of the known world. Fear is way stronger then greed.

 

[Spock]

Just my own personal bias, but I see the "bondish" CEF turmoil to be less driven by recent middle east news and more impacted by the growing clouds on the private equity/credit horizon.

Oil impacts on markets are fairly well understood because there have been a long history of oil events going back to the 1970s... I mean this isn't exactly the first war to occur in the middle east. The unknown density of Jamie Dimon's "cockroaches"... (pick your percentage of the $1.8T private market is a cockroach), to me, is a higher risk.

The war is more of a distraction away from the possibilities implied by insurance companies, pensions, and professional bond fund manager portfolios holding bags of rehypothecated excrement.

 

[DrVenture]

Just a mild correction that makes a difference: about a third of CEF portfolio assets are leveraged to likely take advantage of financing vs asset yield spreads. That means 66% of most portfolios are just another (sometimes very complex) bond fund.
Regards, Dick

Makes sense.

To me, it also appears that the gross long/short amount of a given CEF illustrates the total degree of leverage. Independently, long illustrating upside potential, and short illustrating potential downside protection. This, in the simplest of terms.

 

[surprising]

I've held bond-like CEFs for many years and never worried about drops in price, even through Covid. But, this private credit mess has spooked me, and I worry mostly about distribution cuts which always slaughter a funds price (FSCO anyone?). So I sold most all my CEFs and I'm kind of in a wait and see mode. Private credit sure seems like the shiny new way to make a buck and who knows how pervasive it is. Seems quite analogous to 'sub-prime mortgages' and 'mortgage backed securities', both of which took down the world in 2008.

 

[FlyingCircus]

In this particular case, I am curious about the downside risk of adding to GOF or PFN at this moment in time

+1. The NAVs of both are roughly at 1 year lows, but that's "only" ~5 to 8% drop from their highs 6 months ago. Obviously what's happened is a collapse in the premium. Which then asks, why? Some private information that the distribution is likely unsustainable? Or a sentiment-based hurry for the exits because some started selling?

In GOF's case, I wouldn't touch that 60%+ ROC number, acknowledging that's superficial from a still-learning CEFer.

In PFN's case, I "trust" PIMCO to manage them well in any IR environment, such as the history shown by PCN - which has held up well with the same round-top NAV pattern of the last year. Price got hammered in 08, 22, a couple of others as you would expect - like stocks.

Thank me for being Captain Obvious - a big part of the game is just not getting killed on the price/premium at entry - like "value" investing in equities. PCN at a 5% premium is a phenomenally better value than 15% premium. Like getting nervous about buying or holding a SAAS stock at a 50 or 75PE before it drops to a 20PE.

 

[stefansm]

A follow-up to my weekend post:

The major trend of the market is still up, as the price is above its long term moving average and above support. If this changes, I will take defensive action, as I mentioned in that post.

In addition, if you have access to SentimenTrader.com, they mention new trading signals today (i.e. Buy) coming from the High Yield traders (HY breadth bouncing off extremely oversold levels) and from the industrial sectors insiders (insiders buying). And they post the historical charts and stats of these signals, which I cannot repost here, but which show very high probability of a market bottom here (but, of course, with the disclaimer that past action is not predictive of future action ).

For me, these are not reallocation triggers (my trigger is the market trend, as I mentioned above) but they are objective signals to support my assessment of the current market condition.

So far, I maintain my risk-on allocation. If/when the trend breaks, I will switch to a defensive stance.

 

[dickoncapecod]

A follow-up to my weekend post:

The major trend of the market is still up, as the price is above its long term moving average and above support. If this changes, I will take defensive action, as I mentioned in that post.

In addition, if you have access to SentimenTrader.com, they mention new trading signals today (i.e. Buy) coming from the High Yield traders (HY breadth bouncing off extremely oversold levels) and from the industrial sectors insiders (insiders buying). And they post the historical charts and stats of these signals, which I cannot repost here, but which show very high probability of a market bottom here (but, of course, with the disclaimer that past action is not predictive of future action ).

For me, these are not reallocation triggers (my trigger is the market trend, as I mentioned above) but they are objective signals to support my assessment of the current market condition.

So far, I maintain my risk-on allocation. If/when the trend breaks, I will switch to a defensive stance.

IMO tomorrow's Fed dot plot and JPOW news conference represent a low/medium likelihood very high impact event. IF IF IF there is anything that REALLY shakes the lower-rates-later narrative, fear will drive prices. Sadly, steady-as-she-goes maybe a cut or two later may end the CEF downtrend and help create a base ---- but probably not spur a large rally. (Fed's / our problem are not that crude is 90-something with scare stories to the moon ---- the intermediate term problem is that crude is over 70 and diesel is $5.)

MOST likely, your risk-on indicators will prove correct and we'll recoup at least a bit of recent drawdowns.
Regards, Dick

 

[Graust]

Thanks for that reminder @Randy145 No matter how much I try snd remember Ex-div dates, they often catch me by surprise.

I actually keep a group of tabs for each CEF I own or trade, so I that I can check ex-dates (most CEF websites have easy to find DISTRIBUTION links). Also Investing.com has an app that has a dividend calendar (among other things) that isn’t comprehensive, but usually shows at least one of the CEF companies that have multiple CEFs, so that you know when said company’s CEFs go ex-.

Hope that makes sense! I was doing more dividend capture trades before the CEF volatility this past fall (and into ‘26).

 

[marget]

At Today's close:

PAXS: closed @ 14.50 low mark is @14.36. c-stick is negative to very negative
PDI: closed @ 17.52 low mark is @ 17.38 c-stick is very negative for the day
PDO: closed @ 13.12 low mark is @ 13.05 c-stick very negative for the day. Trend mark from 2023 is at 12.60. From the looks of it, there is a distinct possibility PDO will test the 12.60 mark.
PFN: closed @ 6.92. low mark is @ 6.85. c-stick is sorta iffy to the downside. The next mark down is pretty far down though. It is a trend line from 2023 that touches just under 6.50. That is not a very reassuring trend line touch.

All I know is that for myself, I need patience and discipline. Dick's cash position is larger than my entire PF, so I don't have that much room for mistakes.
Stuff looks like it's trying to hang in there, but from so many angles, how? or when? or why? will this stuff be able to have the strength to take a few simply sideways, not even up, steps?
For the life of me, I can't envision any way but down from this moment in time.

 

[GaltintheGulch]

They are both excellent income portfolio buys as long as you believe a bottom will form near here, frightened selling is completed, and NAVs will stop declining.
Regards, Dick

a lot to consider...........

 

[FlyingCircus]

2 things. 1, PAXS has reached a 7 month support (bottom) with today's decline with quite some volatility in between. At the end of January it was trading at the highest premium of the bunch; now it's at a discount. If it breaks below this level I'm not sure where support is but it's likely not all the way back at 13.30 from end of May '25.
2. Most HY funds have been impacted, not just PIMCO's. Notice the very similar daily pattern for USHY and the leading PIMCOs; it's mostly just a matter of degree, and it started, interestingly enough 2 weeks before the Iran thing. Leading to a lightly held opinion that it's an inflation/IR forecast-driven risk-off moment, generalized across the market.

As well, the daily MACDs / PPOs are still negative but increasing.

 

[DrVenture]

The assumption that it is "inflation driven", I find entirely credible. Today's action seems to support that. The case for rate cuts may be disintegrating.

If we keep getting mid-3 to 4% inflation prints, what does the CEF situation look like?

 

[dickoncapecod]

The assumption that it is "inflation driven", I find entirely credible. Today's action seems to support that. The case for rate cuts may be disintegrating.

If we keep getting mid-3 to 4% inflation prints, what does the CEF situation look like?

Two things....
1. Some credible analysts extrapolates PPI data to suggest PCE and core over 4+% within several months. But that's no longer a surprise.
2. Will folks sell assets currently trading at 12+ to 15% --- that's inflation +8% to +11%? I don't know. I suppose I hope they will. But frankly, although I HOPE I can buy stuff down 50c or a buck ---- at prices the same or lower than when Fed funds rose over 5% ---- it's not going to change much about my income portfolio.
Regards, Dick

 

[FlyingCircus]

PCN (a longer tenured PIMCO) trading at a lower premium - 1.4% - than it's had in over 5 years (according to CEFConnect)... lower than the nadir of the 2022 "event"... -2 Zstat... with yield up to 11.2%...

 

[dickoncapecod]

At Today's close:

PAXS: closed @ 14.50 low mark is @14.36. c-stick is negative to very negative
PDI: closed @ 17.52 low mark is @ 17.38 c-stick is very negative for the day
PDO: closed @ 13.12 low mark is @ 13.05 c-stick very negative for the day. Trend mark from 2023 is at 12.60. From the looks of it, there is a distinct possibility PDO will test the 12.60 mark.
PFN: closed @ 6.92. low mark is @ 6.85. c-stick is sorta iffy to the downside. The next mark down is pretty far down though. It is a trend line from 2023 that touches just under 6.50. That is not a very reassuring trend line touch.

All I know is that for myself, I need patience and discipline. Dick's cash position is larger than my entire PF, so I don't have that much room for mistakes.
Stuff looks like it's trying to hang in there, but from so many angles, how? or when? or why? will this stuff be able to have the strength to take a few simply sideways, not even up, steps?
For the life of me, I can't envision any way but down from this moment in time.

Looks like your candles have won! Brits price in 3 Bank of England rate hikes. I think when folks observe this and war-inflation story, our stuff MIGHT well break hard.
Congrats, Dick

 

[COcheesehead]

3 year NAV to market price for GOF

 

[dickoncapecod]

3 year NAV to market price for GOF

View attachment 62472

If the NAV was static, that would likely be a good buy.....
Regards, Dick

 

[COcheesehead]

If the NAV was static, that would likely be a good buy.....
Regards, Dick

It’s a Rorschach test. You can see a lot of different things in that chart.