CEF Holdings --- March 2026

COcheesehead said:
I don’t like to see the declines, but I have (almost) never been in a better financial position than right now. You see things differently. You know this too shall pass and in all likelihood will look back and wish you bought more. Buy fear.
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Thanks, good points. Bargains mean nothing when I'm already 100% invested.
 
Running_Man said:
I am looking at this asset class as a whole which has been widely become a new asset class replacing GIC contracts for retiree portfolios. What I am seeing is 50% of the credit ratings have been done by a firm which is acknowledged to have given ratings based on sales price received for rating. So many hundreds of billions was extended to firms that never should have gotten a loan. And this discovery is only now starting to be acknowledged in ratings and will take a whole year to shake out.

For the past 9 months there is a slow ending of the extend and pretend nature of many of these fundings. I do not think the economy is run by these private credit fundings. PIMCO is obviously superior from what I have seen to most firms in assembling portfolios (vs say KKR) but a larger than I originally thought of these dealings are just outright deals that never could have worked and should not have been funded. The realization phase of this is only beginning. I am trying to identify the best of these funds to invest in so that when the bottom arrives I can purchase them at oversized discounts. What the rest of the market does is not my focus, if it is a time of great distress history shows both during the great depression, 1981 market bottom and 2007-2009 that credit that is thought to be bad but is actually good actually far outperforms equities on the rebound.
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This is very interesting for a few reasons. The way you are reasoning is extraordinary. I hope you will post more on this development.
Do you have any funds that could come close to having good credit?
Just to think of good credit being lumped in w/ bad credit for some reason fascinates me.
What led you to even investigate this?
How did this particular firm get so much business? Are they crooks? Or, do they still exist? Isn't anyone suing them?
I sincerely want to know more. Not to buy in, but this is a fascinating story.
Lastly, are you for real?
thanks........margaret
 
Pete3 said:
Yea but PDI always trades at a premium to these two, its got a much longer history and higher yield

Price declines are caused by premium shrinkage (or discount widening) bother me a lot less than NAV declines

YTD PDO's is down 9.3% but its NAV is only down 4.2%. PAXS is similar.

Not great but its to be expected with the way that interest rates have moved up (and odds of a fed rate cut have turned into odds of a rate hike)
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The fact that PDI has always traded at a premium merely means the demand for these higher interest loans was greater than the supply, and individuals were not able to make the loans directly so willing to pay more than they actually are worth. What is happening a large portion is going to be downgraded below investment grade which means a large supply from insurance companies and pensions is going to HAVE to be sold to meet investment criteria.
Supply is going to continue it's increase and as prices and NAV decrease individuals will start to say these aren't good investments and add to the supply. I see no way to avoid a very large discount into a period where the NAV is by default going to be under pressure both from rising rates and dropping ratings. It is telling that in 2024 the NEW YORK FED issued a paper on the increasing use of extend and pretend by banks only to do nothing about this except push to have those loans sold to private credit funds to remove from bank balance sheets.

This advert to borrowers should make one realize the credit rating agencies exist for the borrowers not the investors.
1774633573705.png

The ratings have probably resulted in a NAV of at least 10% to high historically and if you paid a 15% premium that means you paid 25% too much, now add an unfavorable rate environment and the resulting decline in economic activity that is probable due to higher and real shortages in the energy complex.

PIMCO at least is an honest company that can be trusted but these funds are in a bad market. Other firms are inherently unfair to investors and I think sell their worst crap to investors in a paid advisor push to rich investors. I think that is what happened to the FSK funds and the large interfund dealings only make me more suspicious of motives beyond repricing justifications.
 
marget said:
This is very interesting for a few reasons. The way you are reasoning is extraordinary. I hope you will post more on this development.
Do you have any funds that could come close to having good credit?
Just to think of good credit being lumped in w/ bad credit for some reason fascinates me.
What led you to even investigate this?
How did this particular firm get so much business? Are they crooks? Or, do they still exist? Isn't anyone suing them?
I sincerely want to know more. Not to buy in, but this is a fascinating story.
Lastly, are you for real?
thanks........margaret
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Yes i forsee this as the biggest financial issue since 2007 and in my mind I have been trying to unwind what the complications means for investments in the area:
This is my 2007 discussion here with a banker.
August 2007 Banking Discussion
August 2007 Reply by me
 
Running_Man said:
Yes i forsee this as the biggest financial issue since 2007 and in my mind I have been trying to unwind what the complications means for investments in the area:
This is my 2007 discussion here with a banker.
August 2007 Banking Discussion
August 2007 Reply by me
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Thank you for these links. I am reading them now. Great help that you bookmarked them for some 20 years ago. REally amazing. Your mind is amazing to me. What was your line of work back then?
It's like you're a financial antique of some kind....I mean this as a compliment.

Please keep me updated on what you unwind as you continue to research....thank you
 
marget said:
This is very interesting for a few reasons. The way you are reasoning is extraordinary. I hope you will post more on this development.
Do you have any funds that could come close to having good credit?
Just to think of good credit being lumped in w/ bad credit for some reason fascinates me.
What led you to even investigate this?
How did this particular firm get so much business? Are they crooks? Or, do they still exist? Isn't anyone suing them?
I sincerely want to know more. Not to buy in, but this is a fascinating story.
Lastly, are you for real?
thanks........margaret
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Read some "alternative" media. It's old news there.
 
Spock said:
Read some "alternative" media. It's old news there.
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really?!
Reading @Running_Man posts from Sept. 2007 seems pretty old to me.
Like I said: I like the way he thinks and writes. I'm not interested in "old news"
I'm interested in how this person thinks and writes and to see his thoughts from 2007 is a super find from my perspective.
 
Quiet afternoon. I had been poking around on BRAVE's AI portal and got the following response from query: Pimco PFN earnings:

"PIMCO Income Strategy Fund II (PFN) reported fiscal year 2025 earnings of $92.16 million, representing a 22.66% increase from the prior year
. The fund’s revenue for the same period was $84.34 million, up 9.97% year-over-year
. As of March 17, 2026, PFN’s net income was $79.62 million, down 1.6% from the previous period, with earnings per share (EPS) at $0.82, down 8.3%
. The fund’s forward PE ratio is listed as “n/a,” and no upcoming earnings date is currently available "

What was interesting: the AI couldn't/wouldn't release any information on PDI.

-------------.
But then I asked about coverage and got: "PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) has a dividend coverage ratio of approximately 1.2, indicating that its earnings comfortably cover its dividend payments

2. The fund pays a monthly dividend of $0.2205 per share, totaling about $2.65 annually, with a current yield around 15.48%

3. However, it’s worth noting that PDI pays out nearly 100% of its earnings as dividends, leaving minimal retained earnings for growth or operations"

-----------------------.

PIMCO Income Strategy Fund II (PFN) has a payout ratio of 105.65%, meaning it pays out more in dividends than it earns in net income, which may indicate reliance on return of capital or other sources to sustain distributions

The fund pays a monthly dividend of $0.0718 per share, totaling $0.86 annually, with a current yield of approximately 12.13%

While this offers high income, the elevated payout ratio suggests limited earnings coverage and potential sustainability risks"
 
Limit orders in all the usual Pimco CEFs filled. Need to find ways to replenish cash if the sale goes on.
 
Pete3 said:
The problem with statements like this is they are usually assuming "all else being the same" but if PDI has fallen 20% that likely means a whole bunch of other bad things have happened in which case you probably wouldn't see it as such as bargain anymore
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That's exactly the point to see a panic sell as it did last year.
Some investors talk, others execute. See example.

What is your best idea for investing today

I'm at 99+% money market, sold a couple of weeks ago. Read my profile. I'm a bond OEFs trader, but sometimes I would trade riskier stuff for hours-days, especially when risk is high like now. For me it's PDI. The Friday sale was a panic one. It's one of the best CEFs and did well before. While...
www.early-retirement.org www.early-retirement.org
 
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FD1000 said:
That's exactly the case.
I already proved it. Read

What is your best idea for investing today

I'm at 99+% money market, sold a couple of weeks ago. Read my profile. I'm a bond OEFs trader, but sometimes I would trade riskier stuff for hours-days, especially when risk is high like now. For me it's PDI. The Friday sale was a panic one. It's one of the best CEFs and did well before. While...
www.early-retirement.org www.early-retirement.org
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Not sure how you buying into a 2 day sell-off (and selling the same day as you bought) is "proof" that you would buy any 20% dip in PDI, regardless of the circumstances.
 
FD1000 said:
I Think PDI is already lost 10% from the top based on a quick look.
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Thought you meant 20% down from the open, now only 17.87 % left to hit your 20% down.
oldmike
 
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dickoncapecod said:
FWIW, I think bondish CEF prices MIGHT make new lows that would take yields higher than when Fed was still tightening and, funds crossed 5%, and inflation was coming down from 9%. But it's hard to conceive of a rationale for that ---- although we know markets don't need rationales for extreme behavior. Anyhow, I have few "concerns," because I'm an income investor who thinks yields --- not so much prices, although they are obviously irrevocably related.

I have a lower portfolio value than in early February, but currently the portfolio yields few more dollars per month than it did back then. I own PDI at 15.15%...PAXS 12.49%...PFN 12.58% etc. That's how I think about it.

If higher yields are available later, there will be swap opportunities for portfolioyield-enhancement. I'm not buying CEFs in order to sell them soon for a profit --' I want to hold positions for years, and while everybody prefers greater portfolio value/wealth, I'd prefer but don't yearn for higher prices.

Everyone is sorta chasing their tails just now, reacting violently/aggressively to back-and-forth public messages from warring parties --- which inflate or deflate crude futures, which move securities prices up and down. What do we know with reasonable certainty?

Oil prices are going to remain high for a while regardless of how quickly hostilities end. They will work their way into transportation prices and we'll see increasing inflation stats for a while. Demand destruction will start to offset price rises, and if Fed tightening a time or two it will accelerate price increases that are the ONLY cure for inflation. None of those things makes me inclined to sell 12+% to 15+% assets.
Regards, Dick
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I am with you. I would be happy if the PIMCOs just oscillated in this range forever (as long as they could sustain yield) and I would drip and get rich (or at least extremely well off), lol.

I don’t have the expertise or experience to go all in on high yield PIMCOs, and am within 1 year of retirement, so I have kept my positions diversified and of manageable size across an income portfolio of low, moderate, and higher risk (yield) sleeves aimed at a composyield of 8-9%. Keeping my high yield positions small and the aggregate no more that 25% of the income portion of my portfolio lets me stay invested (something I learned during COVID with a much smaller income portfolio).
FD1000 said:
I Think PDI is already lost 10% from the top based on a quick look.
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if you go from the 9/9/25 high of $20.07 to today (16.53), PDI has lost 17.7%.
 
I traded some GOF for profit on the morning rise, then bought some back on the late day dive.
I trimmed some PDI at a loss, but I believe we’ll see even more premium compression before this swoon is over.
 
The week ended 3/27 was a rough one for bondish CEFs, component ETFs, and all equity indices. ALL TRADED ASSETS appear to be on well-developed MACD sell signals. However, down at the base of our domestic rate structure, things have been far more stable than asset prices this week. The Fed funds futures curve is essentially flat, predicting no change in the 3.6% Fed policy rate during 2026. But the Treasury curve out to 2 years has definitely changed --- the year bill one year forward has climbed to 4.07%, and obviously impacted by oil prices the 5yr breakeven inflation rate rose to 3.01%, with Fed favorite 5yr-5yrs forward up to 2.7%.

Movements in the Treasury curve are really not surprising. For several years, Treasurys have been priced on the assumption of declining rates. For example, 10yrs --- which in a "normal/neutral" policy environment typically settle in at policy rate +125 to +150 basis points --- traded UNDER 4% when the anticipated terminal funds rate was 3%! Now that the visible terminal rate estimate is 3.6%, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a 10yr yield between 4.75% and 5% --- just a return to "neutral." And, of course, fears of higher inflation could easily result in a higher 10yr rate overshoot.

Most economic releases have little market impact amidst the recent asset price waterfalls -- the exceptions being monthly employment and inflation data. This coming week, the ADP jobs estimate is +40k and BLS on Friday +51k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%...ho-hum. The following week, Fed Cleveland predicts PRE-war PCE stats at +0.3% headline and +0.2% core ---- Y/Y +2.7% and +2.8%. Next month, war-affected CPI: +0.8% / 0.2% and Y/Y +3.2% and +2.6%. From afar, it seems like mostly oil/energy and not much else (yet) --- the oil shock ain't good, but it ain't 9% either.

Is there a bottom line? Well, here's an opinion about bondish CEFs. From a yields perspective, we have seen significant upside overshoot. Many / most have reached levels last seen when Fed funds were over 5% and thought to be rising --- and inflation was just beginning to retreat from 9%. We are not there and probably not going there. At 13+% to 16+%, CEF spreads over Treasurys and inflation have actually widened. BUT the generalized asset price waterfalls of recent weeks are driven by financial stresses and fear of more ---- most investors are not paying attention to yields or P/Es or calm assessments of "value."

Personal note: this morning my portfolio is down 2.3% YTD. Once again, ALL (LOL!) we had to do to avoid negative outcomes was to sell or significantly reduce holdings when the weekly MACD threw a sell signal AND MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE/ wait until the signal or the macro facts finally reverse (not yet). So easy to say and so difficult to execute! Decades away from professional trading/investment, I find it is nearly impossible to maintain discipline as retail products move to not-just-attractive but eye-popping, likely generation-high yields.
Regards, Dick
 
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I continue to add small amounts (for me) to something each month.

CEF’s of course are always instantly productive because I don’t concern myself with values I’ll never live long enough to need. More actual spendable money for my $4 a gallon gas, covering that 2% charge for using a credit card and those huge health Part B and D raises this year etc. Real factual higher expenses covered now.

VTI studies, graphs, spend down rules and talking heads promise to make my life even better if I’m worthy out ahead somewhere that way>>>>>>>? where market values actually matter.

Oh well glad I can still laugh those off instead of paying taxes on minuscule MM interest. Patience and a promise seem better then no hope at all.
 
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Been nibbling on PIMCOs and QQQI, SPYI in my income sleeve almost every day from last months and this months divis that were taken as cash, as well as the small amount of proceeds from sale of PEO on Tuesday. Early, but it had appreciated nicely since purchase in November and I received the quarterly divi earlier this year.
 
dickoncapecod said:
The week ended 3/27 was a rough one for bondish CEFs, component ETFs, and all equity indices. ALL TRADED ASSETS appear to be on well-developed MACD sell signals. However, down at the base of our domestic rate structure, things have been far more stable than asset prices this week. The Fed funds futures curve is essentially flat, predicting no change in the 3.6% Fed policy rate during 2026. But the Treasury curve out to 2 years has definitely changed --- the year bill one year forward has climbed to 4.07%, and obviously impacted by oil prices the 5yr breakeven inflation rate rose to 3.01%, with Fed favorite 5yr-5yrs forward up to 2.7%.

Movements in the Treasury curve are really not surprising. For several years, Treasurys have been priced on the assumption of declining rates. For example, 10yrs --- which in a "normal/neutral" policy environment typically settle in at policy rate +125 to +150 basis points --- traded UNDER 4% when the anticipated terminal funds rate was 3%! Now that the visible terminal rate estimate is 3.6%, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a 10yr yield between 4.75% and 5% --- just a return to "neutral." And, of course, fears of higher inflation could easily result in a higher 10yr rate overshoot.

Most economic releases have little market impact amidst the recent asset price waterfalls -- the exceptions being monthly employment and inflation data. This coming week, the ADP jobs estimate is +40k and BLS on Friday +51k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%...ho-hum. The following week, Fed Cleveland predicts PRE-war PCE stats at +0.3% headline and +0.2% core ---- Y/Y +2.7% and +2.8%. Next month, war-affected CPI: +0.8% / 0.2% and Y/Y +3.2% and +2.6%. From afar, it seems like mostly oil/energy and not much else (yet) --- the oil shock ain't good, but it ain't 9% either.

Is there a bottom line? Well, here's an opinion about bondish CEFs. From a yields perspective, we have seen significant upside overshoot. Many / most have reached levels last seen when Fed funds were over 5% and thought to be rising --- and inflation was just beginning to retreat from 9%. We are not there and probably not going there. At 13+% to 16+%, CEF spreads over Treasurys and inflation have actually widened. BUT the generalized asset price waterfalls of recent weeks are driven by financial stresses and fear of more ---- most investors are not paying attention to yields or P/Es or calm assessments of "value."

Personal note: this morning my portfolio is down 2.3% YTD. Once again, ALL (LOL!) we had to do to avoid negative outcomes was to sell or significantly reduce holdings when the weekly MACD threw a sell signal AND MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE/ wait until the signal or the macro facts finally reverse (not yet). So easy to say and so difficult to execute! Decades away from professional trading/investment, I find it is nearly impossible to maintain discipline as retail products move to not-just-attractive but eye-popping, likely generation-high yields.
Regards, Dick
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Dick Said - "Personal note: this morning my portfolio is down 2.3% YTD."

Well, that's much better than my results! As of today I am down -7.08%. I probably did almost the opposite of Dick's careful trading. But, I'm not feeling too bad yet, and my deck chairs haven't moved yet. My biggest contributors to the losses were GOF and PDI. I comfort my bruised ego with the thought that they can still provide 15-20% dividends in the coming months, to offset some of the loss.

Thanks again Dick, for your thoughtful commentary. I look forward to it. Stay well!
 
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