CEF Holdings --- March 2026

[IncomeOriented]

Been nibbling on PIMCOs and QQQI, SPYI in my income sleeve almost every day from last months and this months divis that were taken as cash, as well as the small amount of proceeds from sale of PEO on Tuesday. Early, but it had appreciated nicely since purchase in November and I received the quarterly divi earlier this year.

Lots of opportunity for those with cash to invest. (IMO)

 

[keppelbay]

Down 2.4% YTD.
Income considerably up due to additions to PDI PDO and PFN in Feb and March.
Added a bit more PFN during yesterday's rout.
A rare chance to buy at a discount to NAV, for a yield of 13%.
Ready to buy more, if you folks want to sell it to me cheaper...

 

[stefansm]

2 brief observations:

1. My system technical indicators, all short term and some long term, have turned unfavorable (red). But all the fundamental indicators (economic, sentiment, other) are solid green. This means what we have now is just a correction, not an economic downturn/recession/crisis.
My allocation, of 50/50 CEFs/Managed Futures helped this week to keep my portfolio flat. CEFs were down adn Managed Futures up. I may increase it a smidgeon towards defensive, to 45/55 next week, if the LT tech indicators show the same at the of the month.

2. Now on to speculation . All that follows is just TA guess work of the highest probability path. Not investment advice. I do not use this in my allocation, but I find it helpful, psychologically, to have some idea of what the future my bring.
This is a correction in an uptrend. How far down and how long? Look at the chart below. The price is in a well defined down channel. The most probable support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the whole uptrend since the 2025 low (point C on the chart). When will this happen? Well, the channel bottom (red line) meets the green support line on April 17 => 3 more weeks. Maybe something will happen in 3 weeks ?
Also, the volume is increasing on the downside, so , for now, the trend is downward:

 

[DrVenture]

I do wonder if the unemployment rate holding steady is as positive as that might have seemed just a few years ago. With LPR having fallen 0.6% since Jan 2025 (-1,000,000 potential workers), and very limited immigration having a significant impact. Basically millions have been removed from the workforce in a very short time frame. The unemployment number, thus may emphasize/indicate attrition, more than worker demand.

As far as inflation, a longer term trend of 3-4% may be just as damaging as a couple months of 7-9%. Particularly, when the FED may have a hard time quashing inflation without creating recession. Last time they start raising at ZIRP. they had a lot more headroom. And tariffs (taxes) were not a headwind.

I have a lot of cash, but more inclined at this point to sell into strength, than buy anything.

Playing Devil's advocate here. Dissenting opinions are welcome.

 

[joejetski]

Dick Said - "Personal note: this morning my portfolio is down 2.3% YTD."

Well, that's much better than my results! As of today I am down -7.08%. I probably did almost the opposite of Dick's careful trading. But, I'm not feeling too bad yet, and my deck chairs haven't moved yet. My biggest contributors to the losses were GOF and PDI. I comfort my bruised ego with the thought that they can still provide 15-20% dividends in the coming months, to offset some of the loss.

Thanks again Dick, for your thoughtful commentary. I look forward to it. Stay well!

I am with you, in between you and Dick at 4.4%. My PIMCOS are a small enough piece of my income portfolio (~10%) that I am comfortable riding it out knowing I am still 9 mos out from retirement.

 

[IncomeOriented]

Yes more headroom to go up from ZIRP. But, the current situation is much better than the last round of interest rate increases. The damage to bond values coming from 1% to 2%+, is MUCH greater than the damage in value of going from 4% to 5%.

 

[FlyingCircus]

Decades away from professional trading/investment, I find it is nearly impossible to maintain discipline as retail products move to not-just-attractive but eye-popping, likely generation-high yields.

And THAT is the crux of our monkey-brain problem. For stocks, the trend signals have been solid down and have been/are easy to pull the "get out" trigger if one can stay unemotional and mechanical. But with these CEFs, the dissonance created by stock-like price drops and mouth-watering yields leads to paralysis.

I'm basically flat on the year, although not nimble enough to avoid a -5.5% down month. Cutting myself a break given the speed of the strength of the reaction to the military actions.

 

[DrVenture]

Yes more headroom to go up from ZIRP. But, the current situation is much better than the last round of interest rate increases. The damage to bond values coming from 1% to 2%+, is MUCH greater than the damage in value of going from 4% to 5%.

Good point. I should have made it clear that I am thinking about the entire economy and markets in my view/opinion, not just fixed income. If HY CEFs are positively correlated to equities, in addition to the interest rate pressure, would not other increased economic pressures (that hurt equities) have an additional negative impact?

I also subscribe to the point that Dick made that FED rates will not have to go up much to have an outsized impact, this time around. I think that the economy wants a rate cut, but inflation demands a rate hike. That dynamic was not in play last time the Fed tightened.

I also agree that Pimco CEFs will be very attractive at some point. I just do not know when. I hate buying anything and then seeing price drop further.

 

[marget]

The week ended 3/27 was a rough one for bondish CEFs, component ETFs, and all equity indices. ALL TRADED ASSETS appear to be on well-developed MACD sell signals. However, down at the base of our domestic rate structure, things have been far more stable than asset prices this week. The Fed funds futures curve is essentially flat, predicting no change in the 3.6% Fed policy rate during 2026. But the Treasury curve out to 2 years has definitely changed --- the year bill one year forward has climbed to 4.07%, and obviously impacted by oil prices the 5yr breakeven inflation rate rose to 3.01%, with Fed favorite 5yr-5yrs forward up to 2.7%.

Movements in the Treasury curve are really not surprising. For several years, Treasurys have been priced on the assumption of declining rates. For example, 10yrs --- which in a "normal/neutral" policy environment typically settle in at policy rate +125 to +150 basis points --- traded UNDER 4% when the anticipated terminal funds rate was 3%! Now that the visible terminal rate estimate is 3.6%, it's not unreasonable to anticipate a 10yr yield between 4.75% and 5% --- just a return to "neutral." And, of course, fears of higher inflation could easily result in a higher 10yr rate overshoot.

Most economic releases have little market impact amidst the recent asset price waterfalls -- the exceptions being monthly employment and inflation data. This coming week, the ADP jobs estimate is +40k and BLS on Friday +51k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%...ho-hum. The following week, Fed Cleveland predicts PRE-war PCE stats at +0.3% headline and +0.2% core ---- Y/Y +2.7% and +2.8%. Next month, war-affected CPI: +0.8% / 0.2% and Y/Y +3.2% and +2.6%. From afar, it seems like mostly oil/energy and not much else (yet) --- the oil shock ain't good, but it ain't 9% either.

Is there a bottom line? Well, here's an opinion about bondish CEFs. From a yields perspective, we have seen significant upside overshoot. Many / most have reached levels last seen when Fed funds were over 5% andm thought to be rising --- and inflation was just beginning to retreat from 9%. We are not there and probably not going there. At 13+% to 16+%, CEF spreads over Treasurys and inflation have actually widened. BUT the generalized asset price waterfalls of recent weeks are driven by financial stresses and fear of more ---- most investors are not paying attention to yields or P/Es or calm assessments of "value."

Personal note: this morning my portfolio is down 2.3% YTD. Once again, ALL (LOL!) we had to do to avoid negative outcomes was to sell or significantly reduce holdings when the weekly MACD threw a sell signal AND MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE/ wait until the signal or the macro facts finally reverse (not yet). So easy to say and so difficult to execute! Decades away from professional trading/investment, I find it is nearly impossible to maintain discipline as retail products move to not-just-attractive but eye-popping, likely generation-high yields.
Regards, Dick

MY HERO!!!!

 

[marget]

Dick Said - "Personal note: this morning my portfolio is down 2.3% YTD."

Well, that's much better than my results! As of today I am down -7.08%. I probably did almost the opposite of Dick's careful trading. But, I'm not feeling too bad yet, and my deck chairs haven't moved yet. My biggest contributors to the losses were GOF and PDI. I comfort my bruised ego with the thought that they can still provide 15-20% dividends in the coming months, to offset some of the loss.

Thanks again Dick, for your thoughtful commentary. I look forward to it. Stay well!

Such a moving reply. Your ego may be bruised but your humility is shining brightly. Thank you

 

[marget]

And THAT is the crux of our monkey-brain problem. For stocks, the trend signals have been solid down and have been/are easy to pull the "get out" trigger if one can stay unemotional and mechanical. But with these CEFs, the dissonance created by stock-like price drops and mouth-watering yields leads to paralysis.

I'm basically flat on the year, although not nimble enough to avoid a -5.5% down month. Cutting myself a break given the speed of the strength of the reaction to the military actions.

The thing is that the Pimco CEFs i've owned will turn around before equities; even by significant rises
I am still watching and waiting for a TRUE, SOLID Follow Thru Day.
It will come just like the rising sun

 

[Onda]

The thing is that the Pimco CEFs i've owned will turn around before equities; even by significant rises
I am still watching and waiting for a TRUE, SOLID Follow Thru Day.
It will come just like the rising sun

What if rates go up?

 

[marget]

Good point. I should have made it clear that I am thinking about the entire economy and markets in my view/opinion, not just fixed income. If HY CEFs are positively correlated to equities, in addition to the interest rate pressure, would not other increased economic pressures (that hurt equities) have an additional negative impact?

I also subscribe to the point that Dick made that FED rates will not have to go up much to have an outsized impact, this time around. I think that the economy wants a rate cut, but inflation demands a rate hike. That dynamic was not in play last time the Fed tightened.

I also agree that Pimco CEFs will be very attractive at some point. I just do not know when. I hate buying anything and then seeing price drop further.

PDI's low of $16.00 is appearing to move a bit closer.
My final mark to that 16.00 is 16.40. It came very close to that 16.40 on Fri. I think the low was 16.52. I haven't looked at news for today, but regardless whether it's great or not, PDI's c-sticks are talking their own talk. It's really kinda weirdly wonderful. Then again i'm old and @dickoncapecod Dick just survived a possible life-ending surgery and a relapse. I hope we live long enuff to see the good, the compassion, the spiritual growth that will surely come from all that is happening in the world at this time.

 

[marget]

What if rates go up?

well, I was born during the most intense sun time of the year

 

[Onda]

Something like PDI is riskier than SCHD because it uses borrowed money and depends on bond markets staying favorable. SCHD is simpler because it owns strong dividend-paying companies that can keep growing over time.

 

[FD1000]

Why I have done pretty well since 2000.
1. Big Picture Thinking:I focus on identifying unique markets or situations that have the potential to influence the world.

• Examples:
  • 2000: The dot-com bubble
  • 2008: The MBS fiasco
  • 2020: COVID-19 pandemic
  • 2022: Inflation and the Fed’s rate hike promises
  • 2025: "Liberation Day"
  • 2026: The Iran conflict and rising oil prices

2. Market Confirmation: My approach requires that these trends be reflected in the market itself. This includes factors like a high VIX (Volatility Index) if both stocks and bonds lose and other proprietary indicators that signal market conditions.

Once these conditions are met, I act based on technical analysis (TA) and define my maximum loss for each fund. Each position typically represents at least 30% of my portfolio.

What I don’t do:

1. Follow Opinions and Forecasts: I don’t pay attention to the myriad of opinions, articles, or forecasts about the economy. These are often not in real-time and have little correlation with how the market will behave over the next one week to six months.
2. Economists are often the least accurate predictors, and a Nobel Prize doesn’t change that. Run as far and fast as you can.
3. Trade Small Percentages: Trading small percentages of my portfolio doesn’t meaningfully impact my returns or provide enough protection for my portfolio.

----------------------------------------------

Since selling everything on March 2nd and locking in a 4+% gain for the YTD, that's where I stand today.

 

[Rhythm Method]

I always enjoy the commentary here—especially Dick’s thoughtful dives.

Quick check: I’m down 2.19% for the year. Not great, not terrible.

I have a lot of respect for the traders working charts and momentum. It’s a skill. Just not mine.

I trimmed my CEFs when they felt top-heavy. In hindsight, I wish I had done more—mow than trim. But that’s how it goes.

I’m still collecting the monthly cash flow, which matters to me. And I’ve been adding—slowly—to more boring names like FBND, ADX, and SPYI. Nothing exciting, just things I can hold without overthinking.

I’ve also nibbled back into CEFs;, and have placed pretty ridiculous limit orders—and then I walk away. I don’t watch. That’s part of the plan.

There’s more than one way to manage risk. Chart watching is one. Simplicity is another.

Nothing but respect for the active traders—but for an ADHD bongo player, I’m keeping it in 4/4.

Feels like we may be heading into a stretch where fear and greed really start pulling against each other.

Good luck out there.

— RM

 

[DrVenture]

The thing is that the Pimco CEFs i've owned will turn around before equities; even by significant rises
I am still watching and waiting for a TRUE, SOLID Follow Thru Day.
It will come just like the rising sun

I think that also may be true, that Pimco CEFs will begin to recover before equities.

I have lowball limit orders in place.

 

[RobLJ]

Down about 3% YTD, although a bit over 1% of that is unusual extra spending (foundation work and prepaying flight and the Coast to Coast England hike in May--hope they don't cancel the flight.)

 

[dennis5502]

There is an interesting article on Pimco website entitled ‘Layered Uncertainty …”. Dennis

 

[IncomeOriented]

Thanks. The PIMCO article was good. Interestingly they talk about investing for liquidity and quality, but these are long term recurring themes for them. Most of the pimco cefs are dynamic allocation styles, so these principles are ongoing for the management of the funds.

Also. The statement that the markets are repricing interest rates quickly and the need for fed intervention might not be necessary in the short term.

 

[marget]

2 brief observations:

1. My system technical indicators, all short term and some long term, have turned unfavorable (red). But all the fundamental indicators (economic, sentiment, other) are solid green. This means what we have now is just a correction, not an economic downturn/recession/crisis.
My allocation, of 50/50 CEFs/Managed Futures helped this week to keep my portfolio flat. CEFs were down adn Managed Futures up. I may increase it a smidgeon towards defensive, to 45/55 next week, if the LT tech indicators show the same at the of the month.

2. Now on to speculation . All that follows is just TA guess work of the highest probability path. Not investment advice. I do not use this in my allocation, but I find it helpful, psychologically, to have some idea of what the future my bring.
This is a correction in an uptrend. How far down and how long? Look at the chart below. The price is in a well defined down channel. The most probable support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the whole uptrend since the 2025 low (point C on the chart). When will this happen? Well, the channel bottom (red line) meets the green support line on April 17 => 3 more weeks. Maybe something will happen in 3 weeks ?
Also, the volume is increasing on the downside, so , for now, the trend is downward:

View attachment 62669

I hope you will post the fundamental indicators in 3 weeks.
I really want to see how much, if any, they have changed.
EDIT: I have been studying this chart and I have a question: What about that window of 556--570?
There are times when the only window in this 1 year chart is that. That 556-570 window is fairly large and it is kinda/sorta coming into the range of Friday's low of 633. When you mentioned 3 more weeks, that comment makes that window (which for some reason? many charts view as marks) seem like a point this ETF will be reaching. What is your understanding?
thanks

 

[marget]

I do wonder if the unemployment rate holding steady is as positive as that might have seemed just a few years ago. With LPR having fallen 0.6% since Jan 2025 (-1,000,000 potential workers), and very limited immigration having a significant impact. Basically millions have been removed from the workforce in a very short time frame. The unemployment number, thus may emphasize/indicate attrition, more than worker demand.

As far as inflation, a longer term trend of 3-4% may be just as damaging as a couple months of 7-9%. Particularly, when the FED may have a hard time quashing inflation without creating recession. Last time they start raising at ZIRP. they had a lot more headroom. And tariffs (taxes) were not a headwind.

I have a lot of cash, but more inclined at this point to sell into strength, than buy anything.

Playing Devil's advocate here. Dissenting opinions are welcome.

Yes, I wonder about the change in fundamental indicators ---- living thru 3 more weeks of what this is---- is it a correction or the beginning of an economic downturn?

 

[stefansm]

Yes, I wonder about the change in fundamental indicators ---- living thru 3 more weeks of what this is---- is it a correction or the beginning of an economic downturn?

Marget, here are a few long term indicators I look at, from SentimenTrader.
This one below shows the macro economic state, as bullish or bearish. Here it is from 2000 to today:

And here are its construction details:

Macro deteriorates from time to time, which is normal during the ebb and flow of an economic expansion. To differentiate “temporary slowdowns” from real problems, we look for SIGNIFICANT macro deterioration. Our Macro Index combines 11 diverse economic indicators to determine the state of the U.S. economy right now.

1. New Home Sales
2. Housing Starts
3. Building Permits
4. Initial Claims
5. Continued Claims
6. Heavy Truck Sales
7. 10 year – 3 month Treasury yield curve
8. S&P 500 vs. its 10 month moving average
9. ISM manufacturing PMI
10. Margin debt
11. Year-over-year headline inflation

As you can see, this index leans towards housing & the labor market. Housing indicators are extremely useful as leading economic indicators, and there are plenty of academic papers that explain why. Labor market indicators are very timely for calling recessions, with few false signals. Stock market investors should be bullish when the Macro Index is above 0.7, and bearish when the Macro Index is below or equal to 0.7

It is updated once a month. I expect the update this next week, end of March.

 

[stefansm]

This next indicator is their proprietary Sentiment indicator, which is updated daily, showing green now. You can see how it correctly indicated every bear market or deep correction: