CEF Holdings --- March 2026

[stefansm]

This is the corporate insiders buying for the S&P 500 companies. Corporate insiders can sell for many reasons, but they are buying only when they are confident about their companies earnings and think the stock price will go up. See that they start buying early, before the bear markets end, near the bottom. These days they are pretty bullish:

 

[marget]

Marget, here are a few long term indicators I look at, from SentimenTrader.
This one below shows the macro economic state, as bullish or bearish. Here it is from 2000 to today:
View attachment 62671
And here are its construction details:

Macro deteriorates from time to time, which is normal during the ebb and flow of an economic expansion. To differentiate “temporary slowdowns” from real problems, we look for SIGNIFICANT macro deterioration. Our Macro Index combines 11 diverse economic indicators to determine the state of the U.S. economy right now.

1. New Home Sales
2. Housing Starts
3. Building Permits
4. Initial Claims
5. Continued Claims
6. Heavy Truck Sales
7. 10 year – 3 month Treasury yield curve
8. S&P 500 vs. its 10 month moving average
9. ISM manufacturing PMI
10. Margin debt
11. Year-over-year headline inflation

As you can see, this index leans towards housing & the labor market. Housing indicators are extremely useful as leading economic indicators, and there are plenty of academic papers that explain why. Labor market indicators are very timely for calling recessions, with few false signals. Stock market investors should be bullish when the Macro Index is above 0.7, and bearish when the Macro Index is below or equal to 0.7

It is updated once a month. I expect the update this next week, end of March.

Wow! Such a great chart. A great list as well, well researched.
Thanks so much for explaining it. It helps me to broaden my vision, which is a major factor at this time.
Please post the newest update after it comes out.
thanks, again

 

[marget]

This next indicator is their proprietary Sentiment indicator, which is updated daily, showing green now. You can see how it correctly indicated every bear market or deep correction:

View attachment 62673

This may be a stupid comment, but the first thing I noticed is that the DOWN stuff ls much less than the UP stuff. So, we do have more positive market times than negative is how I read it. This chart uplifts my outlook and mood. Just look at all those years!!!
Thank you so much!

 

[RobLJ]

This may be a stupid comment, but the first thing I noticed is that the DOWN stuff ls much less than the UP stuff. So, we do have more positive market times than negative is how I read it. This chart uplifts my outlook and mood. Just look at all those years!!!
Thank you so much!

Down always should bear the burden of proof, since the long-term tendency is always up. In my view. I got really bearish before both the GFC and the tech crash. Also one time around 2015 and 2015 that turned out to be nothing burger. Normally, I'm more of a set allocation percentages and rebalance, but I don't want to be foolish, since we have (for a time) won the war.
Until events prove me wrong, I am also bearish now. (I hope I am wrong.) At the worst, I will lose some gains, but we are motoring on when DW takes SS in 3 years, all of our expenses will be covered, so it likely will only matter to our sons and grandkids.

 

[marget]

@stefansm
I've been studying the Nasdaq & S&P 500 and the SPY etf you used and i'm really antsy about that window, which is very evident in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
When i look at, say, the 20 year chart and compare the drops & when i look at how the Nasdaq & S&P are dropping at this time, something is indicating those windows are somehow going to come into play.
I wish you could look at that window b/c windows can be very serious marks. It seems like this particular market is looking towards the window.
What this then means is that the S&P will drop at least another 600 points and the Nasdaq would drop over 2000 points. I'm using the middle of that window.
My question is: Do you see this as a possibility? I just have a nagging feeling that we are headed towards that window. These darn windows!!!!##**

I'm not feeling conficent about this window as we move towards the next 3 weeks or so.

 

[Steelpony]

I don’t know if this has been discussed here in depth.

As a general practice has anyone put part of their CEF positions on reinvestment for any length of time?

I rotate 1/3 of our high income holdings each year on reinvestment and as mentioned before supplement our present needs with the rest of the CEF distributions or dividends (2 REITS). If excess cash is left over we might add to any area of our portfolio or just let cash accumulate.*

*I don’t want to get into the TR discussion again because I don’t see how price variations of basically bonds each day is a catastrophe. My risk in this area is strictly payout cuts which I handle with say partial 10% monthly reinvestments and see dips and corrections as my friends. The opposite of our equity holding in VTI.

 

[dickoncapecod]

I don’t know if this has been discussed here in depth.

As a general practice has anyone put part of their CEF positions on reinvestment for any length of time?

I rotate 1/3 of our high income holdings each year on reinvestment and as mentioned before supplement our present needs with the rest of the CEF distributions or dividends (2 REITS). If excess cash is left over we might add to any area of our portfolio or just let cash accumulate.*

*I don’t want to get into the TR discussion again because I don’t see how price variations of basically bonds each day is a catastrophe. My risk in this area is strictly payout cuts which I handle with say partial 10% monthly reinvestments and see dips and corrections as my friends. The opposite of our equity holding in VTI.

FWIW, I keep all eligible CEFs in my IRA that is 90+% of our portfolio on reinvest. Since IRS doesn't care, I take my RMD and withhold taxes in December ---- and the remainder replenishes smaller taxable account for the next year's living expenses and gifts to heirs. That way I get the max benefit from reinvestment discounts.
*Aside: some PIMCOs have gone to discounts, so consider whether THOSE should be off reinvest while discounts persists.
Regards, Dick

 

[IncomeOriented]

I don’t know if this has been discussed here in depth.

As a general practice has anyone put part of their CEF positions on reinvestment for any length of time?

I rotate 1/3 of our high income holdings each year on reinvestment and as mentioned before supplement our present needs with the rest of the CEF distributions or dividends (2 REITS). If excess cash is left over we might add to any area of our portfolio or just let cash accumulate.*

*I don’t want to get into the TR discussion again because I don’t see how price variations of basically bonds each day is a catastrophe. My risk in this area is strictly payout cuts which I handle with say partial 10% monthly reinvestments and see dips and corrections as my friends. The opposite of our equity holding in VTI.

Yes, and no.
I have done cef drips in the past and have mixed results.

A few years ago at an “ unnamed “ brokerage, I tried to drip with unpleasant results. They made one mistake after another, and never in my favor. Back then I decided that I could reinvest my dividends better than that brokerage could.

I tried it again, this time at Fido and pretty good results. The discount and the price volatility worked in my favor most of the time. Overall the results were fair to middling at best, but not bad.

The discount on premium is nice, but I decided that I might do better than the 5% by holding my dividends for downdrafts in prices. That seems to work a little better, and I enjoy the sense of control.

Then there’s another problem for me with wash sales caused by two co-antagonizing factors I have.
-First, the vast majority of my holdings are in taxable accounts.
-Second, I only hold 5 to 10 holdings. I picks my winners and I stays with them, until they fall out of my wagon.
-Third, holding all the same stuff in the taxable and the IRAs accounts, sets me up for potential wash sales.
-Fourth, dividend reinvesting (drip) makes the wash sale issue more problematic.

If wash sale is not an issue and your brokerage is competent on drips, I think dripping is great. It’s easy and the volatility of things like PDI, or GOF, can make some extra money, and it’s easy. Edit: (just not for me at this time)

 

[stefansm]

@stefansm
I've been studying the Nasdaq & S&P 500 and the SPY etf you used and i'm really antsy about that window, which is very evident in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
When i look at, say, the 20 year chart and compare the drops & when i look at how the Nasdaq & S&P are dropping at this time, something is indicating those windows are somehow going to come into play.
I wish you could look at that window b/c windows can be very serious marks. It seems like this particular market is looking towards the window.
What this then means is that the S&P will drop at least another 600 points and the Nasdaq would drop over 2000 points. I'm using the middle of that window.
My question is: Do you see this as a possibility? I just have a nagging feeling that we are headed towards that window. These darn windows!!!!##**

I'm not feeling conficent about this window as we move towards the next 3 weeks or so.

Marget, I'd like to help, but I need to understand your question first. What window are we talking about?

Secondly, I cannot (and nobody can) predict what will happen, in a deterministic way. The market is not a machine. The market is a social construct of market actors and the economy, where psychology plays a big role, entangled in unfathomably complex ways with the economic forces driving its action.

So, all we can do is recognize market patterns, in price action, and in macro indicators, use experience and our understanding of the history of the forces at work and issue a probabilistic guess. Like I did in my post. It's all probabilities, not certainty.

And finally, in my strategy, I am never binary, like bearish or bullish. I am always quantitatively more offensive/defensive, as the indicators I use show more evidence of market/economic direction.

Like, now, I should be about 45% bullish and 55% bearish. And I express this stance using 45% risk on assets (stocks or CEFs) and 55% alternative assets, like managed futures, which go up when the market goes down and also up when it goes up, but not as consistently as when it goes down. See the convex "smile" in the scatter plot below. That behavior, the convexity, is also probabilistic, it is just a regression curve, BUT as you see from the chart, when the market trend is clearly down, as when the drawdown > ~10% or so , the probability is almost 99%it will act as a hedge. See the red rectangle on the scatter plot. There is a good probability in bullish markets as well, of the alternative asset going up, but not as consistently as in down markets. And no correlation in small trading ranges markets.

 

[FD1000]

Just another observation I found out last night.
For one year based on TR:
PDI lost money based on the Pimco site.
PIMIX made 6.4%...SPY 12.8%...EGRIX 19.2%

 

[Steelpony]

FWIW, I keep all eligible CEFs in my IRA that is 90+% of our portfolio on reinvest. Since IRS doesn't care, I take my RMD and withhold taxes in December ---- and the remainder replenishes smaller taxable account for the next year's living expenses and gifts to heirs. That way I get the max benefit from reinvestment discounts.
*Aside: some PIMCOs have gone to discounts, so consider whether THOSE should be off reinvest while discounts persists.
Regards, Dick

I’m in basically the same situation and am doing the same as you. We just do monthly transfers and withholding though plus I need more to fund VTI.

Yes, and no.
I have done cef drips in the past and have mixed results.

A few years ago at an “ unnamed “ brokerage, I tried to drip with unpleasant results. They made one mistake after another, and never in my favor. Back then I decided that I could reinvest my dividends better than that brokerage could.

I tried it again, this time at Fido and pretty good results. The discount and the price volatility worked in my favor most of the time. Overall the results were fair to middling at best, but not bad.

The discount on premium is nice, but I decided that I might do better than the 5% by holding my dividends for downdrafts in prices. That seems to work a little better, and I enjoy the sense of control.

Then there’s another problem for me with wash sales caused by two co-antagonizing factors I have.
-First, the vast majority of my holdings are in taxable accounts.
-Second, I only hold 5 to 10 holdings. I picks my winners and I stays with them, until they fall out of my wagon.
-Third, holding all the same stuff in the taxable and the IRAs accounts, sets me up for potential wash sales.
-Fourth, dividend reinvesting (drip) makes the wash sale issue more problematic.

If wash sale is not an issue and your brokerage is competent on drips, I think dripping is great. It’s easy and the volatility of things like PDI, or GOF, can make some extra money, and it’s easy. Edit: (just not for me at this time)

Our CEF’s are all in an IRA. We only hold cash, mostly muni funds and VTI in a taxable account. That’s a heck of a setup you have to manage.

 

[FlyingCircus]

@Steelpony
FWIW I have 90% of my port in a T-IRA and have all of the CEFS on reinvest. (mostly 5-6 Pimcos at 6-8% each) I don't expect to be withdrawing from the TIRA until next year sometime. I probably will put 1/2 of them on payout when that time comes.

The note about not reinvesting when they're at a discount is a scenario to consider, new to me but a good point in this current volatile market.

 

[marget]

SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

StockCharts.com's SharpCharts Workbench

stockcharts.com

SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

StockCharts.com's SharpCharts Workbench

stockcharts.com

I think I must be aware of windows in charts from IBD. The window mark is not something I figured out on my own.
Windows can be a mark under certain conditions. The window here is very noticable. Furthermore, it appears that this ETF is heading towards it.
I realize now that your approach does not include this type of calculation.
I see a window...whether or not this ETF reaches it is something for me to watch for. Why? Because Pimco CEFs follow the Nasdaq more than the Dow-------and ------the Nasdaq also has that same window as does the S&P. However the Dow does not have this window. Still, I have definitely noticed that Pimco CEFs follow the Nasdaq, so I also follow it.

Thanks, and yes, I am now understanding your method much better and definitely appreciate it. And don't forget to post that fundamental stuff that will come out this week.

EDIT: for some reason Stock charts default, so I have to redo these 2 charts.

 

[PlayinwithFIRE]

I only started experimenting with PDI last year..its all underwater at this point It is all on DRIP while I
have cash on hand to fund life. Thereby , I will hopefully average down my initial purchase prices while
market is declining and come thru the other side at some point.

Timeline is everything though...if I have an expensive year, my hand may be forced to accept some losses or find other ways to give me a more extensible timeline to recover the on-paper CEF losses.

Trying to be patient.


pwf

 

[stefansm]

Just another observation I found out last night.
For one year based on TR:
PDI lost money based on the Pimco site.
PIMIX made 6.4%...SPY 12.8%...EGRIX 19.2%

View attachment 62680

View attachment 62681

Indeed. My CEF TR Portfolio, heavy in PDI, was up 12% in February and now, in March is only up 4.5% for the trailing 12 months. Mainly due to its small managed futures component, which was increased last Monday to 50% from 25%:

 

[dickoncapecod]

Just another observation I found out last night.
For one year based on TR:
PDI lost money based on the Pimco site.
PIMIX made 6.4%...SPY 12.8%...EGRIX 19.2%

View attachment 62680

View attachment 62681

The performance is actually worse because the PIMCO site only updated thru Thursday. PIMCO getting lazy?
Regards, Dick

 

[Steelpony]

@Steelpony
FWIW I have 90% of my port in a T-IRA and have all of the CEFS on reinvest. (mostly 5-6 Pimcos at 6-8% each) I don't expect to be withdrawing from the TIRA until next year sometime. I probably will put 1/2 of them on payout when that time comes.

The note about not reinvesting when they're at a discount is a scenario to consider, new to me but a good point in this current volatile

Our reinvestments have been automated monthly for about 16 years.

We use about half the monthly CEF income at the present time.

 

[joejetski]

I don’t know if this has been discussed here in depth.

As a general practice has anyone put part of their CEF positions on reinvestment for any length of time?

I rotate 1/3 of our high income holdings each year on reinvestment and as mentioned before supplement our present needs with the rest of the CEF distributions or dividends (2 REITS). If excess cash is left over we might add to any area of our portfolio or just let cash accumulate.*

*I don’t want to get into the TR discussion again because I don’t see how price variations of basically bonds each day is a catastrophe. My risk in this area is strictly payout cuts which I handle with say partial 10% monthly reinvestments and see dips and corrections as my friends. The opposite of our equity holding in VTI.

I am in VG, I don’t drip. I will be retiring end of the year, and my current strategy is strategically reinvesting across my income positions. At 6 months out I will reduce my reinvestment by 50% , building cash to start distributions in January. Once retired, i “plan” to reinvest about 20% across my positions, but will adjust depending on market and my income needs; I have about 30 months in cash for SORR, and will build to 36 by retirement.

 

[marko]

Just started drip in February. (Thank you to someone here with the tip of a 5% drip bonus!)

I'm thinking that we're going to be looking at a new round of nasty inflation, so compounding Pimco's high yields help make for a speedy mitigation.

 

[Onda]

The performance is actually worse because the PIMCO site only updated thru Thursday. PIMCO getting lazy?
Regards, Dick

That leveraged garbage paid $13.26 in distributions over the last 60 months, yet in real terms it is still down more than 20%+ after inflation — while investors also had to pay taxes on every dollar of that $13.26.

 

[COcheesehead]

I always take the DRIP and if I want to reallocate, I sell the dividend. Who wouldn’t want an extra 5%?

 

[Onda]

Correct me if I’m wrong: You had to own the shares no later than March 11 to receive the dividend on March 12. Closing prices: 17.94 - 17.47 = 0.47, so the market value fell by 47 cents while you received 21 cents in taxable income, which, when reinvested through DRIP, gives you about 1 extra cent of profit.

I would not want it.

You can do the math and see how that repeated in Feb:

 

[dickoncapecod]

That leveraged garbage paid $13.26 in distributions over the last 60 months, yet in real terms it is still down more than 20%+ after inflation — while investors also had to pay taxes on every dollar of that $13.26.

View attachment 62695

Nice historical review. However, unless you have access to a time machine, you can't go back, inattentively buy and hold PDI through the Fed's most rapid tightening cycle in decades, watch your net worth melt, and suffer the described poor returns. You missed the chance! That said, do you have a go-FORWARD view on PDI --- a BBB portfolio currently yielding 16% --- TODAY?
Regards, Dick

 

[Onda]

Nice historical review. However, unless you have access to a time machine, you can't go back, inattentively buy and hold PDI through the Fed's most rapid tightening cycle in decades, watch your net worth melt, and suffer the described poor returns. You missed the chance! That said, do you have a go-FORWARD view on PDI --- a BBB portfolio currently yielding 16% --- TODAY?
Regards, Dick

No, I don’t have a firm forward view, but my wild guess is that generating a $0.221 monthly payment from a $16 share is inherently trickier and riskier than generating the same $0.221 from a $30 share. Risk driven by aggressive leverage, exposure to non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and junk-rated debt which are sensitive to economic downturns and default risk.

Regards Onda from Cambridge MA

 

[Randy145]

That leveraged garbage paid $13.26 in distributions over the last 60 months, yet in real terms it is still down more than 20%+ after inflation — while investors also had to pay taxes on every dollar of that $13.26.

View attachment 62695

while investors also had to pay taxes on every dollar of that $13.26.

A primary reason to hold it in an IRA.