dickoncapecod
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
The problem with using premiums/discounts as a primary indicator is that PDI might have a (say for fun) 2% premium at 25.00 or a 12% premium at 14.00.With all the bad news PDI may be approaching a buy point. IMO this is best measured by the premium/discount to NAV as shown below. My suggested rule for PDI is when the premium is 5% or less causing the next dividend to be at NAV, this represents an acceptable buy point. The current premium is 6.57%. So NAV/.95 or 15.84/.95 = $16.67 could be an attractive buy point assuming the bad news has been mostly baked into the current NAV. A decent exit point would be when the premium to NAV reaches 10% or 15.84/.9 = $17.6. One might expect this to happen in the next few months whenever some good news temporarily alters the buyer sentiment. Note I expect the longer term outlook to be poor for fixed income over the next two years but one could still do ok through short term trades while the NAV decays in the longer term.
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Regards, Dick