CEF Holdings --- May 2026

[FlyingCircus]

FYI on the recent performance of the PIMCO CEFs - the below chart. The lead: PDI has stayed the strongest of the group pictured; PAXS continues to weaken.

 

[Flieger]

The point I am making, and which may have been lost, is that in December 2007, all the 4 indicators I show turned red (see the chart). This was enough evidence to tell you that a bear market or a big correction is coming.

So, you act on it and protect your portfolio. This means you get out of risk assets and stay in cash or re-allocate to managed futures or to treasury bonds (cause inflation was falling, fast, so treasuries were great as the safe assets) or you use options to hedge your portfolio or whatever you usually do when you know that a bear market is coming.

December 2007, when all 4 indicators where red in unison, was before the waterfall started, so you were out almost at the top.

And, for the duration of the bear market, you stayed in your planned risk-off mode, making money as the risk off assets (managed futures or treasuries) went up in 2008.

And then, in July-Aug 2009, the indicators were turning green, one by one (see chart). That was evidence that a new bull market was starting and you can re-allocate to risk on again.

Basically, there are 2 ways I know of to protect your portfolio from bear market losses:

1. Have a plan what to do in a bear market and have the indicators which can tell you when the bear market starts and ends. I see that some of the people here do this: fundamentals, technicals or both. My 2 posts above where showing some indicators I use. I have also mentioned, here, how my asset allocation is changing in real time in response to these indicators. So does Dick and so do others here, providing you their allocations and rationales.

2. You are always invested, like in buy and hold, but with an "all terrain/all weather" portfolio, which combines risk-on with convex assets like managed futures. Another type of "all terrain" is the Harry Brown "Permanent Portfolio", but it has only 25% stocks (risk on), is much less performant, so I don't consider it for what we are doing here with CEFs.

Some people use the 60/40 stocks/bonds, but that is not an all terrain portfolio, as stocks and bonds correlate in stagflation, and fall together, as we have seen in 2022.

But using a 50/50 stocks (or CEFs) / managed futures will protect you in all market environments. This will protect your portfolio in any bear market, no matter what inflation does (unlike 60/40 which is dependent on inflation) and grow it in a bull market. All you have to do is rebalance within some rebalancing bands, maybe once or twice a year. This will help you grow the portfolio by selling high and buying low. I may show this in a future post ...

Please make a new Thread, titled appropriately, when you see the ALL RED again!

Flieger

 

[dickoncapecod]

The week ended 5/8 was mixed for various bondish CEFs, but even some modest declines left most I watch on weekly MACD buy signals, including: PDI PFN RCS PTY DSL GOF KIO WDI JFR DMO FSCO, component ETF HYG, and BDCs ARCC BIZD MSDL and DXSL. But under the hood, things are once again little changed. Fed funds futures are flat again, predicting no change in Fed policy for at least the rest of the year. The year bill one year forward is 4.03%, and the 5yr inflation breakeven 5yrs forward is a relatively benign 2.29%.

The economic data this week just added to the confused picture of the current economy. Job gains were an upside surprise +115k and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. But on the other hand, consumer sentiment fell to record lows and consumer credit came in at $25 billion, double the estimate. And when combined with poor consumer sentiment, this suggests that a large portion of the population is leaning on credit because employment cash flows don't cover the new higher cost of living. More evidencd of an accelerating "K-shaped economy"?

Next week we auction Treasury 3s-10s-30s and it is ALSO "inflation Week"! CPI is expected headline +0.6% / core 0.3% and Y/Y +3.8% / 2.7% --- suggesting that it's hikes in energy driving inflation SO FAR. PPI is expected +0.5%% core +0.3% but Y/Y +4.8% and +4.3%. Finally, import/export prices are expected +1.0% and +1.1%. None of these inflation expectations are good news, but SO FAR at least the drivers appear to be factors that are not responsive to Fed monetary policy (as long as Fed can't create oil and gasoline or raise more crops), and we see no translation of temporarily(?)& increased prices into wages/wage demands.

Opinion: I've been surprised at the recent bondish CEFs extension upward after the recovery from fear-driven war/oil lows. I'd have expected at-best-sideways prices in response to increasing inflation measures and a stabilizing employment market. But technical indicators including weekly MACDs all inform us that investors are pretty enthusiastic about both equities and bondish CEFs. Of course, I've argued that CEFs are very cheap at Fed funds plus 8-10%, inflation plus 8-10%, 5yr Treasurys plus 7+ to 9%, and short corporates plus 6% to 8%.
I just didn't expect other investors to feel the same way. Needless to say, war/oil price news continues to cause "mood swings," but under-the-hood base rates appear stable and Fed (quite rationally) appears currently out of the picture. So weekly MACDs, other indicators, spreads, and @stefansm's excellent contributions have me fully invested for now.
Regards, Dick

 

[joejetski]

...AFTER a 40% drawdown from 2007 high... and took 4 more years to cross that '07 high. Just sayin.

The best time to buy back in.

 

[stefansm]

Please make a new Thread, titled appropriately, when you see the ALL RED again!

Flieger

I will continue to use this thread. Because:

1. I highly value Dick's fundamental analysis and I think it complements the technical indicators I am showing here. Taken together, and with the other contributors as well, we all benefit from the more complete macro picture they provide.
2. The CEF sleeve of the portfolios where I use timing, its components and %, is modeled after his portfolio. That is an area where I completely defer to Dick's analysis and selection.

So, stay tuned here for the timing stuff

 

[stefansm]

FYI on the recent performance of the PIMCO CEFs - the below chart. The lead: PDI has stayed the strongest of the group pictured; PAXS continues to weaken.
View attachment 63474

Here is over one year. CEFs portfolio in green. This is a TR chart.
The portfolio 1Y return is 13.3%, (helped by its 25% allocation to managed futures, which became 50% for a few weeks in the 2026 correction, now back at 25%).

Of the Pimcos shown here:

Best was PHK at 10.3% and worst PAXS at 7.3%.

But, even more important (i.e. painful) for an investor's psychology are the drawdowns:

The portfolio had a -5.4 % max drawdown in 2025 and a -6.2% max drawdown in 2026.

All the Pimcos had much higher drawdowns, the worst (most psychologically damaging!) being PDI with -13.6 % drawdown in 2025 and another -13% in 2026.

 

[mykes2025]

Here is over one year. CEFs portfolio in green. This is a TR chart.
The portfolio 1Y return is 13.3%, (helped by its 25% allocation to managed futures, which became 50% for a few weeks in the 2026 correction, now back at 25%).

Of the Pimcos shown here:

Best was PHK at 10.3% and worst PAXS at 7.3%.

But, even more important (i.e. painful) for an investor's psychology are the drawdowns:

The portfolio had a -5% max drawdown in 2025 and a -8% max drawdown in 2026.

All the Pimcos had much higher drawdowns, the worst (most psychologically damaging!) being PDI with -13% drawdown in 2025 and another -13% in 2026.

View attachment 63480

I had not owned any Bond CEFs prior to these "drawdowns" so I used them to try my hand. So far so good, no psychological damage . Same can be said for BDCs. A good time to enter is a shock to their world, which is somewhat happening now.

 

[FlyingCircus]

The best time to buy back in.

Not for this thread, but common investor psychology certainly resists that play, especially in that case - when there was no faith at that hard right edge of the chart that was bleeding red with no sign it was about to turn around. Until the V happened (bailout driven), which was the 3rd or 4th bounce in that legendary bear market. "There's no buy at the bottom of a bear that didn't seem insane at the time."
FC (yes, still showing scar tissue from 08-9)

 

[PaulR888]

Here we go again with 1/3 of 2026 behind us....

GOF 9% PDI 8% PFN 7% PHK 7% ODDS & ENDS 5% CASH 64%

Regards, Dick

Hi Dick ... I recently discovered this forum. I remember you from Morningstar and Fidelity. I left those forums long ago. I may have gone by bogiegolfer, I forget. We've sparred in past, but I hold no grudges. I hope you don't.

5% PV: GOF
5% PV: PTY
3% PV: HQL

GOF has lots of ROC. I trust Anne Walsh and her team. Sometimes price drops 7% or so and I just buy more. I will never sell because ROC lowers my cost basis and selling will be more tax punitive. I am telling my beneficiary to wait for step up in cost basis and then sell if she wants.

3% PV: HTGC
3% PV: CSWC

I only invest in internally managed BDCs and those that hang out at highest premium levels so they can efficiently use their ATM. MAIN is another one, but I like the higher yield.

You are looking good, Chief. From your posts here, one thing strikes me, you are consistent and honest. No bs from you. I wish you the best!

 

[joejetski]

The point I am making, and which may have been lost, is that in December 2007, all the 4 indicators I show turned red (see the chart). This was enough evidence to tell you that a bear market or a big correction is coming.

So, you act on it and protect your portfolio. This means you get out of risk assets and stay in cash or re-allocate to managed futures or to treasury bonds (cause inflation was falling, fast, so treasuries were great as the safe assets) or you use options to hedge your portfolio or whatever you usually do when you know that a bear market is coming.

December 2007, when all 4 indicators where red in unison, was before the waterfall started, so you were out almost at the top.

And, for the duration of the bear market, you stayed in your planned risk-off mode, making money as the risk off assets (managed futures or treasuries) went up in 2008.

And then, in July-Aug 2009, the indicators were turning green, one by one (see chart). That was evidence that a new bull market was starting and you can re-allocate to risk on again.

Basically, there are 2 ways I know of to protect your portfolio from bear market losses:

1. Have a plan what to do in a bear market and have the indicators which can tell you when the bear market starts and ends. I see that some of the people here do this: fundamentals, technicals or both. My 2 posts above where showing some indicators I use. I have also mentioned, here, how my asset allocation is changing in real time in response to these indicators. So does Dick and so do others here, providing you their allocations and rationales.

2. You are always invested, like in buy and hold, but with an "all terrain/all weather" portfolio, which combines risk-on with convex assets like managed futures. Another type of "all terrain" is the Harry Brown "Permanent Portfolio", but it has only 25% stocks (risk on), is much less performant, so I don't consider it for what we are doing here with CEFs.

Some people use the 60/40 stocks/bonds, but that is not an all terrain portfolio, as stocks and bonds correlate in stagflation, and fall together, as we have seen in 2022.

But using a 50/50 stocks (or CEFs) / managed futures will protect you in all market environments. This will protect your portfolio in any bear market, no matter what inflation does (unlike 60/40 which is dependent on inflation) and grow it in a bull market. All you have to do is rebalance within some rebalancing bands, maybe once or twice a year. This will help you grow the portfolio by selling high and buying low. I may show this in a future post ...

Your post intrigued me a bit, particularly the Harry Browne reference, so I decided to get as close to replicating a Harry Brown-ish Permanent Portfolio that would also satisfy income investors and use some CEFs where appropriate.
1. Cash - no good CEFs, going with CSHI NEOS ETF $250k @ 4.95% = ~ $12,375
2. Long Term Bonds. When HB constructed that portfolio, there were few alternatives available, and LT bonds may or may not be a good investment right now. However, in the spirit of the portfolio, I am sticking with 25% bonds, so here it goes.
PAAA PGIM ETF $83.3k @ 5.7% =$4450
PIMIX, Pimco MF Multisector $83.3k @ =$4899
VWEAX, VG MR Corp $83.3k @ 6.35% =$5283 Total = $14632
3. Gold. Going to expand a little here to PM, and NatRes and add some CEFs
CEF, Sprott Gold/Silver $62500
GGN GAMCO CEF $62500 @ 6.72% =$4200
BCX BR CEF $62500 @ 6.83% = $4268
IAUI, NEOS ETF $62500 @ 10.96 = $6850
Total = $15318
4. Stocks
FOF C&S CEF $50000 @ 7.4% =$3700
KYN CEF $50000 @ 7.5% =$3750
SPYI NEOS ETF $50000 @ 11.67% =$5835
QQQI NEOS ETF $50000 @ 13.41 = $6705
PDI $50000 @ 14.94% =$7470
Total = $27460
Grand Total = $69515 ~7% yield on portfolio.
So depending on income needs and portfolio size this seems reasonable.

Not sure that rebalancing across categories would work appropriately for this portfolio.
If you could live with 6%, you would have around 1% as dry powder.

 

[stefansm]

Your post intrigued me a bit, particularly the Harry Browne reference, so I decided to get as close to replicating a Harry Brown-ish Permanent Portfolio that would also satisfy income investors and use some CEFs where appropriate.
1. Cash - no good CEFs, going with CSHI NEOS ETF $250k @ 4.95% = ~ $12,375
2. Long Term Bonds. When HB constructed that portfolio, there were few alternatives available, and LT bonds may or may not be a good investment right now. However, in the spirit of the portfolio, I am sticking with 25% bonds, so here it goes.
PAAA PGIM ETF $83.3k @ 5.7% =$4450
PIMIX, Pimco MF Multisector $83.3k @ =$4899
VWEAX, VG MR Corp $83.3k @ 6.35% =$5283 Total = $14632
3. Gold. Going to expand a little here to PM, and NatRes and add some CEFs
CEF, Sprott Gold/Silver $62500
GGN GAMCO CEF $62500 @ 6.72% =$4200
BCX BR CEF $62500 @ 6.83% = $4268
IAUI, NEOS ETF $62500 @ 10.96 = $6850
Total = $15318
4. Stocks
FOF C&S CEF $50000 @ 7.4% =$3700
KYN CEF $50000 @ 7.5% =$3750
SPYI NEOS ETF $50000 @ 11.67% =$5835
QQQI NEOS ETF $50000 @ 13.41 = $6705
PDI $50000 @ 14.94% =$7470
Total = $27460
Grand Total = $69515 ~7% yield on portfolio.
So depending on income needs and portfolio size this seems reasonable.

Not sure that rebalancing across categories would work appropriately for this portfolio.
If you could live with 6%, you would have around 1% as dry powder.

You can use Portfolio Visualizer to experiment with this portfolio.

Here is a simple mechanical "all terrain/all weather" portfolio with PV:
The 50/50 Pimco CEFs/Managed Futures is made of 12.5% PTY + 12.5% PFN + 30% PDI in the CEF sleeve. The Managed Futures sleeve is 50% DBMF. I ran it from Jan 1st 2020 and compared with the Buy & Hold 25% PTY + 25% PFN + 50% PDI. Both portfolios rebalance when one asset > 5% its baseline.
Here are the PV results:
(One can see that the only large drawdown of -16% was in the 2020 crash. All other drawdowns, including 2022, are minor):

 

[stefansm]

The portfolio is mechanical, you do not need to do anything but rebalance. In the case I tested above I set the rebalancing bands at 5% with PV. For the whole 6.5 years these were the rebalancing events:
(you can see the sell high/buy low results of the rebalancing. Totally mechanical, no trading skill required ):

 

[stefansm]

Finally, here are the yearly returns vs Buy & Hold:

 

[PaulR888]

You can use Portfolio Visualizer to experiment with this portfolio.

Here is a simple mechanical "all terrain/all weather" portfolio with PV:
The 50/50 Pimco CEFs/Managed Futures is made of 12.5% PTY + 12.5% PFN + 30% PDI in the CEF sleeve. The Managed Futures sleeve is 50% DBMF. I ran it from Jan 1st 2020 and compared with the Buy & Hold 25% PTY + 25% PFN + 50% PDI. Both portfolios rebalance when one asset > 5% its baseline.
Here are the PV results:
(One can see that the only large drawdown of -16% was in the 2020 crash. All other drawdowns, including 2022, are minor):

You can use Portfolio Visualizer to experiment with this portfolio.

Here is a simple mechanical "all terrain/all weather" portfolio with PV:
The 50/50 Pimco CEFs/Managed Futures is made of 12.5% PTY + 12.5% PFN + 30% PDI in the CEF sleeve. The Managed Futures sleeve is 50% DBMF. I ran it from Jan 1st 2020 and compared with the Buy & Hold 25% PTY + 25% PFN + 50% PDI. Both portfolios rebalance when one asset > 5% its baseline.
Here are the PV results:
(One can see that the only large drawdown of -16% was in the 2020 crash. All other drawdowns, including 2022, are minor):

View attachment 63484

Hi stefansm ... In the above post, I think you mean PDI has 25% allocation. Could you educate people like me unfamiliar with managed futures. Have any been wildly successful over a long period of time? A couple I found .. FMF has 10 year compouded TR of 2.9%. WTMF has 15 year compounded TR of .95%. But these are small AUM. DBMF has $3.6B in a much shorter period of time. How was this ETF marketed so successfully? What are they doing differently than the ones I noted. Thanks.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Hi Dick ... I recently discovered this forum. I remember you from Morningstar and Fidelity. I left those forums long ago. I may have gone by bogiegolfer, I forget. We've sparred in past, but I hold no grudges. I hope you don't.

5% PV: GOF
5% PV: PTY
3% PV: HQL

GOF has lots of ROC. I trust Anne Walsh and her team. Sometimes price drops 7% or so and I just buy more. I will never sell because ROC lowers my cost basis and selling will be more tax punitive. I am telling my beneficiary to wait for step up in cost basis and then sell if she wants.

3% PV: HTGC
3% PV: CSWC

I only invest in internally managed BDCs and those that hang out at highest premium levels so they can efficiently use their ATM. MAIN is another one, but I like the higher yield.

You are looking good, Chief. From your posts here, one thing strikes me, you are consistent and honest. No bs from you. I wish you the best!

Welcome back! D
FWIW, I've become a big fan of GOF for my taxable accounts. That generally non-destructive ROC makes the after-tax yield crazy high.

 

[Steelpony]

Welcome back! D
FWIW, I've become a big fan of GOF for my taxable accounts. That generally non-destructive ROC makes the after-tax yield crazy high.

Take a look at ECAT

 

[joejetski]

Not for this thread, but common investor psychology certainly resists that play, especially in that case - when there was no faith at that hard right edge of the chart that was bleeding red with no sign it was about to turn around. Until the V happened (bailout driven), which was the 3rd or 4th bounce in that legendary bear market. "There's no buy at the bottom of a bear that didn't seem insane at the time."
FC (yes, still showing scar tissue from 08-9)

Understood, but I think most on this board would fare ok.

 

[joejetski]

Take a look at ECAT

BCAT and ECAT are both top 10 holdings in the fund of fund positions CEFS, FOF, and YYY.

 

[COcheesehead]

The best time to buy back in.

Absolutely. Spiking VIX. Fear all around, but not everyone did. A lesson to learn. Buy fear. Sell exuberance.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Take a look at ECAT

Similar on ROC, but my preferred GOF is heavily bondish while ECAT is heavily stockish. Different strokes.
Regards, Dick

 

[stefansm]

@PaulR888 -

Yes, right PDI 25% in the 50/50 portfolio.

I have written many posts in these threads about using managed futures as an uncorrelated asset which hedges equities in a crisis.

All you have to know is that it is a trend following system on equity indices, bonds, commodities and currencies. Trend up => goes long, trend down => goes short. Traders who do this are called CTAs (commodity trading advisors)> Dick was one some time ago ...

We are fortunate, as retail investors, nowadays, to have now ETFs which wrap these CTA systems.
The one I use is DBMF, which is basically the index of the top 20 CTAs.
You should search and read more to educate yourself.
I will just attach 2 charts:
This first one is the index (DBMF) extended using historical data to 2000 (green), vs SPY (red):

The second chart, which is the most important and I base my "hedging" on, is the convex "smile" scatter plot which shows that managed futures go up when stocks go down and also up when stocks go up => the smile

Hope this was helpful.

 

[PaulR888]

Thank you. I will research this further to catch up with the class. My initial question: Is your 50:50 portfolio a "set and forget" or are you doing active hedging along the way? I have historically had a bond OEF allocation of 30% to 35% so it seems hard to incorporate this strategy, once I learn more about it. I do plan to sell my house next year and move into a senior living facility and this may offer me another diversified approach for the proceeds. We both know Dick's background. Could you share a little about your background?

 

[stefansm]

Thank you. I will research this further to catch up with the class. My initial question: Is your 50:50 portfolio a "set and forget" or are you doing active hedging along the way? I have historically had a bond OEF allocation of 30% to 35% so it seems hard to incorporate this strategy, once I learn more about it. I do plan to sell my house next year and move into a senior living facility and this may offer me another diversified approach for the proceeds. We both know Dick's background. Could you share a little about your background?

1. It is a set and forget 50/50 CEFs/Managed Futures, but you have to bring it back to 50/50 by rebalancing when the allocations drift too far. I chose a 5% drift band in the example I posted. And you can see that it required 6 rebalancings in 6 years, (see the list of rebalancing events in my post).

2. The system I showed is not original, but the application to CEFs is. I "borrowed" Eric Crittenden's BLNDX mutual fund system idea, which is more complex but basically uses the same principle, 50% Stock Indices/50% Managed Futures.
Check out Eric Crittenden youtube interviews, they are super worth your time for investing education. The BLNDX fund is open w no load at Schwab. I have a large allocation to BLNDX, since the 2022 bear market. It performed amazingly this year. Here is BLNDX (green) vs the 60/40 portfolio (blue). Check the performance and especially drawdowns in 2020 and 2022.

3. Personally (not investing advice!) I am trying to deallocate from my only bond OEF, where I still have a large position, and re-allocate to CEFs. Gradually. Following Dick's portfolio. And "hedged" with Managed Futures. I think bonds OEFs are not the place to be at this time (this is a longer macro discussion of why it is so). Individual bonds are OK, as they are pulled to par at maturity. But, still, may suffer from rising inflation if you try to sell them sooner. I much prefer managed futures, which do very well in reflation and stagflation and in deflationary recessions.

 

[Bill E]

Finally, here are the yearly returns vs Buy & Hold:

View attachment 63486

Hi stefansm, @stefansm

Thank you for all your contributions. Very educational.

Perhaps you will sometime add two more scenarios to this table.
1. 100% Pimco CEFs buy and sell according to your bull and bear market indicators.
2. 75/25 Pimco CEFs/managed futures with variable percent allocation to each according to your bull and bear market indicators.

Best,
Bill

 

[PaulR888]

1. It is a set and forget 50/50 CEFs/Managed Futures, but you have to bring it back to 50/50 by rebalancing when the allocations drift too far. I chose a 5% drift band in the example I posted. And you can see that it required 6 rebalancings in 6 years, (see the list of rebalancing events in my post).

2. The system I showed is not original, but the application to CEFs is. I "borrowed" Eric Crittenden's BLNDX mutual fund system idea, which is more complex but basically uses the same principle, 50% Stock Indices/50% Managed Futures.
Check out Eric Crittenden youtube interviews, they are super worth your time for investing education. The BLNDX fund is open w no load at Schwab. I have a large allocation to BLNDX, since the 2022 bear market. It performed amazingly this year. Here is BLNDX (green) vs the 60/40 portfolio (blue). Check the performance and especially drawdowns in 2020 and 2022.

View attachment 63495
My

1. It is a set and forget 50/50 CEFs/Managed Futures, but you have to bring it back to 50/50 by rebalancing when the allocations drift too far. I chose a 5% drift band in the example I posted. And you can see that it required 6 rebalancings in 6 years, (see the list of rebalancing events in my post).

2. The system I showed is not original, but the application to CEFs is. I "borrowed" Eric Crittenden's BLNDX mutual fund system idea, which is more complex but basically uses the same principle, 50% Stock Indices/50% Managed Futures.
Check out Eric Crittenden youtube interviews, they are super worth your time for investing education. The BLNDX fund is open w no load at Schwab. I have a large allocation to BLNDX, since the 2022 bear market. It performed amazingly this year. Here is BLNDX (green) vs the 60/40 portfolio (blue). Check the performance and especially drawdowns in 2020 and 2022.

View attachment 63495

3. Personally (not investing advice!) I am trying to deallocate from my only bond OEF, where I still have a large position, and re-allocate to CEFs. Gradually. Following Dick's portfolio. And "hedged" with Managed Futures. I think bonds OEFs are not the place to be at this time (this is a longer macro discussion of why it is so). Individual bonds are OK, as they are pulled to par at maturity. But, still, may suffer from rising inflation if you try to sell them sooner. I much prefer managed futures, which do very well in reflation and stagflation and in deflationary recessions.

Hi Stefan .... I just listened to one youtube with Eric. Plan to take a break and for a one hour walk to visit and feed my local park squirrels. I've identified my next youtube with Eric being interviewed by Meb Faber. It is 4 years old. I am familiar with Meb down in Santa Monica, CA. I am interested to see his interview approach with Eric.