CEF Holdings --- May 2026

[PaulR888]

Hi Stefan .... I just listened to one youtube with Eric. Plan to take a break and for a one hour walk to visit and feed my local park squirrels. I've identified my next youtube with Eric being interviewed by Meb Faber. It is 4 years old. I am familiar with Meb down in Santa Monica, CA. I am interested to see his interview approach with Eric.

After a couple of youtube videos, I also asked chatgpt. It gave me a single fund solution for trend following, DBMF. BLNDX has done better YTD, 1yr, 3 yr and 5 yr, so it wins on performance comparison. My issue is for the last couple of years I have been streamlining my accounts and working with an FA as we co-pilot my investments. He has been willing to listen to me and work with my existing accounts. I don't want to inject another complication into what I want him to pilot for me should I become incapacitated. I wish all the best to others. Thanks for raising this option to my attention.

 

[dickoncapecod]

WDI quandry....
I'd ordinarily start moving some post-ex-date cash to WDI to catch it's distribution, but this month there are more considerations....
1. WDI announces distributions for 3 months at a time, and this ex-date is the last known pre-announced amount.
2. WDI hasn't issued a 19a since 2021, but it's positive UNII has been falling slowly as it uses that to supplement lower current NII to cover distributions. Positive UNII may have been exhausted now, and a distribution cut MIGHT be in order (as Western cut DMO several months ago).
3. WDI typically announces distributions right on the last pre-announced ex-date or the day after. So owning WDI to catch the upcoming distribution RISKS owning it as a cut is announced. SO: will there be a cut? If yes, at a current 13%, do I/should I care?
Regards, Dick

 

[stefansm]

Hi stefansm, @stefansm

Thank you for all your contributions. Very educational.

Perhaps you will sometime add two more scenarios to this table.
1. 100% Pimco CEFs buy and sell according to your bull and bear market indicators.
2. 75/25 Pimco CEFs/managed futures with variable percent allocation to each according to your bull and bear market indicators.

Best,
Bill

Hi Bill,

Here is what I can share re: portfolio backtests using my market indicators:

For the backtests below, I used PTY as a stand in for PIMCO CEFs. I wanted to include the 2008-2009 crisis and needed a CEF which: a) is representative and b) has an inception date before the GFC. PTY qualifies, all the others I use are too recent for this test.

The upper pane is the system using a portfolio made of PTY and the CTA index created by Societe Generale, available since 2000 (which is replicated by DBMF since 2020). All are TR charts. PTY is red, CTA index is blue and the portfolio equity is green, mountain style. The backtest period is mid 2003 to today. The CAGR is 8.36% for the period. The drawdowns are clustered between -10% and -15%, with only one -22% in the 2020 flash crash.

The lowest pane is the allocation based on my market indicators: green means stocks, orange is managed futures. You can see how it changed for different market states. It is not a binary risk-on/risk-off, but a gradual allocation change based on the weight of evidence.

The middle pane is the same system, where I use SPY instead of PTY. While it does better for the whole period, at about 10% CAGR vs about 8.4% for PTY above, you should note that PTY had a much better return than SPY until mid 2021, when PTY was up 900% for the mid 2003-mid 2021 vs SPY up only 565%. Since mid 2021, though, until now, PTY returned -3% while SPY returned 79.5%. The portfolio, though returns 20% for the period due to its DBMF component.

 

[keppelbay]

WDI quandry....
, do I/should I care?
Regards, Dick

I would.
A knee-jerk sell-off in reaction to a cut seems likely.
You take no risk by foregoing one 'extra' distro.
Upside: the potential to get a better buy price.

 

[dickoncapecod]

I would.
A knee-jerk sell-off in reaction to a cut seems likely.
You take no risk by foregoing one 'extra' distro.
Upside: the potential to get a better buy price.

Hi. I've raised a little cash today from various PIMCOs that raised their heads up. Plan is to hold that through "inflation week" before investing in WDI (or anything else). Possibility: WDI MIGHT get hit hard enough to pull a modest Alfred E Neuman trade....or not....
Regards, Dick

 

[PaulR888]

Hi Dick .... I remember years ago there was a popular Western Asset bond CEF that had a planned completion date that was extended. Did it finally end and is this the CEF that was started next? Did they retain the same management team? I don't recall Franklin Templeton involvement. Are they new? Thanks.

 

[keppelbay]

Hi Dick .... I remember years ago there was a popular Western Asset bond CEF that had a planned completion date that was extended. Did it finally end and is this the CEF that was started next? Did they retain the same management team? I don't recall Franklin Templeton involvement. Are they new? Thanks.

That was DMO. It still exists.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Hi Dick .... I remember years ago there was a popular Western Asset bond CEF that had a planned completion date that was extended. Did it finally end and is this the CEF that was started next? Did they retain the same management team? I don't recall Franklin Templeton involvement. Are they new? Thanks.

See keppel' s response above. DMO has indeed changed through the. years. It started after the GFC with heavy involvement in the public-private partnerships. It has remained a MBS fund and now owns a chunk of the high yielding seasoned risk transfer Agencies. Personally, I would own a lot of it if it wasn't so small and illiquid. Fidelity's defective compliance algorithm sometimes makes it difficult or impossible to trade. I limit holding to 2-3k shares for now.
Regards, Dick

 

[PaulR888]

See keppel' s response above. DMO has indeed changed through the. years. It started after the GFC with heavy involvement in the public-private partnerships. It has remained a MBS fund and now owns a chunk of the high yielding seasoned risk transfer Agencies. Personally, I would own a lot of it if it wasn't so small and illiquid. Fidelity's defective compliance algorithm sometimes makes it difficult or impossible to trade. I limit holding to 2-3k shares for now.
Regards, Dick

Thanks guys for updating me. I have my frustration with brokerage compliance too.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Thanks guys for updating me. I have my frustration with brokerage compliance too.

I have had good luck with this: when the FIDO algorithm stops me from (for example) hitting a RESTING BID, I drop them a "feedback" note saying basically "by restraining me from hitting a resting bid, you are now one further occurrence from generating a SEC complaint." I have never suffered a second occurrence on the same day.
FWIW, Dick

 

[PaulR888]

I have had good luck with this: when the FIDO algorithm stops me from (for example) hitting a RESTING BID, I drop them a "feedback" note saying basically "by restraining me from hitting a resting bid, you are now one further occurrence from generating a SEC complaint." I have never suffered a second occurrence on the same day.
FWIW, Dick

LOL. We can all use some daily humor. Hope we can reciprocate some time.

 

[FD1000]

Hi Bill,

Here is what I can share re: portfolio backtests using my market indicators:

For the backtests below, I used PTY as a stand in for PIMCO CEFs. I wanted to include the 2008-2009 crisis and needed a CEF which: a) is representative and b) has an inception date before the GFC. PTY qualifies, all the others I use are too recent for this test.

The upper pane is the system using a portfolio made of PTY and the CTA index created by Societe Generale, available since 2000 (which is replicated by DBMF since 2020). All are TR charts. PTY is red, CTA index is blue and the portfolio equity is green, mountain style. The backtest period is mid 2003 to today. The CAGR is 8.36% for the period. The drawdowns are clustered between -10% and -15%, with only one -22% in the 2020 flash crash.

The lowest pane is the allocation based on my market indicators: green means stocks, orange is managed futures. You can see how it changed for different market states. It is not a binary risk-on/risk-off, but a gradual allocation change based on the weight of evidence.

The middle pane is the same system, where I use SPY instead of PTY. While it does better for the whole period, at about 10% CAGR vs about 8.4% for PTY above, you should note that PTY had a much better return than SPY until mid 2021, when PTY was up 900% for the mid 2003-mid 2021 vs SPY up only 565%. Since mid 2021, though, until now, PTY returned -3% while SPY returned 79.5%. The portfolio, though returns 20% for the period due to its DBMF component.

View attachment 63506

I wouldn't use PTY as a stand for Pimco CEFs.
PDI is the one you should use. It's a multisector bond CEF and the most held leveraged CEFs. You realized it too, and why PDI is double that of PTY.
DBMF: not bad but not great.
For tests I would use just PDI + DBMF.

I like to look at all options. The world is my oyster.
Since 01/2020
First PDI vs 50/50 PDI/DBMF vs SPY. Let's include QLENX. SPY easily beat PDI/DBMF with a higher Sharpe and QLENX beat all of them.
See the test in this (link). Always add the link so others can verify your results. We all make mistakes.

Second: Let's add QNZNX and start at 01/2022. It did better than QLENX.

The conclusion. Look at all the tools in your toolbox.

 

[stefansm]

I wouldn't use PTY as a stand for Pimco CEFs.
PDI is the one you should use. It's a multisector bond CEF and the most held leveraged CEFs. You realized it too, and why PDI is double that of PTY.
DBMF: not bad but not great.
For tests I would use just PDI + DBMF.

I like to look at all options. The world is my oyster.
Since 01/2020
First PDI vs 50/50 PDI/DBMF vs SPY. Let's include QLENX. SPY easily beat PDI/DBMF with a higher Sharpe and QLENX beat all of them.
See the test in this (link). Always add the link so others can verify your results. We all make mistakes.

View attachment 63511

Second: Let's add QNZNX and start at 01/2022. It did better than QLENX.
View attachment 63512

The conclusion. Look at all the tools in your toolbox.

1. As I mentioned in my post, I used PTY because I wanted to backtest the system with the GFC. PDI was introduced only in 2012.
2. Backtesting for the last 23 years, which include a great recessionary crisis, numerous deep corrections and the 2022 stagflation as well, provides a much more credible result of how the system would perform vs just the last 6 years backtest.
3. An example to make the previous point of using a longer backtest period, just look at the performance of QLENX vs SPY for the last 10 years: From Jan 2016 to Jan 2021, for 5 years that is, an investment in SPY returned 100% and an investment in QLENX returned -3.6% !
So, do the longest backtest possible before drawing any conclusions, and include at least a major crisis:

 

[FD1000]

* PTY has a long history but is not the right proxy. Since 2020 we have more severe tests than GFS.
PTY lost money for one year, another proof it's not the right CEF proxym
* It's a known fact that QLENX algos improved a lot in the last several years. It could be that AI made it happen.
* I have used different funds in different periods based on current markets. That's the beauty of being flexible.
While I have used PIMIX during 2010 to 01/2018, in the last 1 year EGRIX made more than double of PIMIX and a lot more than PDI+PTY.

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schrts.co

There is a good reason why they say past performance isn't a guarantee of future returns.

 

[GaltintheGulch]

WDI quandry....
I'd ordinarily start moving some post-ex-date cash to WDI to catch it's distribution, but this month there are more considerations....
1. WDI announces distributions for 3 months at a time, and this ex-date is the last known pre-announced amount.
2. WDI hasn't issued a 19a since 2021, but it's positive UNII has been falling slowly as it uses that to supplement lower current NII to cover distributions. Positive UNII may have been exhausted now, and a distribution cut MIGHT be in order (as Western cut DMO several months ago).
3. WDI typically announces distributions right on the last pre-announced ex-date or the day after. So owning WDI to catch the upcoming distribution RISKS owning it as a cut is announced. SO: will there be a cut? If yes, at a current 13%, do I/should I care?
Regards, Dick

 

[Pete3]

Fed futures now price in 2% chance of rate cut by end of year and a 33% chance of at least one rate hike

 

[PaulR888]

* PTY has a long history but is not the right proxy. Since 2020 we have more severe tests than GFS.
PTY lost money for one year, another proof it's not the right CEF proxym
* It's a known fact that QLENX algos improved a lot in the last several years. It could be that AI made it happen.
* I have used different funds in different periods based on current markets. That's the beauty of being flexible.
While I have used PIMIX during 2010 to 01/2018, in the last 1 year EGRIX made more than double of PIMIX and a lot more than PDI+PTY.

SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

StockCharts.com's SharpCharts Workbench

schrts.co

There is a good reason why they say past performance isn't a guarantee of future returns.

I have never invested with EV and certainly not this fund. Non-traditional bond fund, 1.05% ER, lots of sovereign debt, a management team who started in 2021 that are not household names in the bond world. 20.5% TR over 1 year?!? Have no idea how they did it and probably wouldn't understand. I invest in people, managers I've heard of, firms I've always invested in that give me confidence. I don't chase 1 year performance, I start with 10 year performance PIMIX is my largest bond OEF.

 

[Old Dog Seeks New Tricks]

further to the possibly/maybe/might be/could be cut in the WDI distribution - it's a relatively new CEF (2021 initial open) and it's div has gone up but yet to never go down --- question for those who have been investors in bondish CEFs for many years -- what would be a usual or going by history guess as to what does that mean in yield, currently nearing 13%, according to Schwab?
10%, 8%, 6% ??
thanks

 

[Steelpony]

further to the possibly/maybe/might be/could be cut in the WDI distribution - it's a relatively new CEF (2021 initial open) and it's div has gone up but yet to never go down --- question for those who have been investors in bondish CEFs for many years -- what would be a usual or going by history guess as to what does that mean in yield, currently nearing 13%, according to Schwab?
10%, 8%, 6% ??
thanks

CEF cuts can be deep or gradual. To date WDI seems to favor gradually up so I would guess gradually down.

Right now the pressure is on the Fed to raise rates if inflation keeps increasing and spreading to all areas of the economy. If peace was at hand then a recovery will start.

Specifically for CEF’s costs of leverage would go up for all CEF’s maybe leading to multiple cuts from other CEFs also.

I saw predictions of up to 25%. that brings distributions back down to around the .11 area. So worse case based on current values the distribution would be 9.6%. You have to remember values will drop with the cut. One will be losing distributions and values.

Stocks will tank also as the herd panics and follows. That’s the game we’re in. DCA and as much as possible reinvestment tends to smooth the ride down to the bottom somewhat while time passes until the ride back up. Astute investors may sell now and reinvest later or look for something else.

We hold 15 HY investments. As a group I’ll accumulate cash while others are on reinvestment and wait until the smoke clears and I have a clearer picture after the wall of woe moves on to the next “crisis”. This is all I know.

 

[dickoncapecod]

further to the possibly/maybe/might be/could be cut in the WDI distribution - it's a relatively new CEF (2021 initial open) and it's div has gone up but yet to never go down --- question for those who have been investors in bondish CEFs for many years -- what would be a usual or going by history guess as to what does that mean in yield, currently nearing 13%, according to Schwab?
10%, 8%, 6% ??
thanks

HI. IF IF IF WDI has consumed the 4+ cents positive UNII it had at 12/31, then the whole issue boils down to a board decision. Are they okay with running at a small non-NII supplement to their NII for coverage? We don't know/can't know. In fact, I'd guess it requires a petty new general policy decision for them. So IMO a cut is worth identifying as a POSSIBILITY, but the need to do so is uncertain, and even if coverage runs at a small deficit from NII, we have no idea what the board thinks/will decide.
Regards, Dick

 

[dickoncapecod]

FWIW, I've run cash up again. I hate doing so much trading, far preferring the 12-ish% steady portfolio values associated with "Fed holds then eases after a while" narrative that has been disrupted by recent energy price inflation. Right now, just as weekly MACDs finally threw buy signals, daily bondish CEF prices are clearly rolling over ---- likely in response to inflation stats.
Regards, Dick

 

[DrVenture]

Added to PDI today. Placed a lowball limit order for PDO.

@dickoncapecod If you hate trading, imagine what most others here feel about it. lol

It is why I have been sitting on a lot of cash and only adding on days like today. But, I do still have about 45% in equities, so I am at ~8% YTD. I have also added to EGRIX a couple of times, recently.

 

[PaulR888]

FWIW, I've run cash up again. I hate doing so much trading, far preferring the 12-ish% steady portfolio values associated with "Fed holds then eases after a while" narrative that has been disrupted by recent energy price inflation. Right now, just as weekly MACDs finally threw buy signals, daily bondish CEF prices are clearly rolling over ---- likely in response to inflation stats.
Regards, Dick

Hi Dick ... I know nothing about under the hood of bond CEFs but do forecasted NAV changes factor into your planning?

 

[Old Dog Seeks New Tricks]

Hi Dick ... I know nothing about under the hood of bond CEFs but do forecasted NAV changes factor into your planning?

welcome to the fun - just noticed you are a 3-day newbie. watch the spinning tea cups.

 

[dickoncapecod]

Hi Dick ... I know nothing about under the hood of bond CEFs but do forecasted NAV changes factor into your planning?

Hi. Any interest rate trends/forecasts can be useful in TRYING to assess NAV trends, but we are dealing with assets that can have premium/discount swings of 5-10+% above/below NAVs. Also, NAVs can actually to run counter to short and long rates because these complex portfolios can have strategies like huge curve steepeners buried in swap book positions. Each week I note some basic rates relevant to CEFs, but recently those "Under the hood" basics have been relatively stable while CEF prices have swung up and down rather violently.
FWIW -- in this case not much !
Regards, Dick