Comparing flu deaths to Covid deaths

[Ian S]

Neglected? No. And I have no need to explain everything about flu and covid deaths. I do think it requires analysis beyond the scope of a few posts on a public retirement board.

The article fails to identify the portion of the apparent discrepancy NOT explained by seasonal factors (such as the record severe flu season Gov Cuomo reported on in February), or by pure seasonality or monthly fluctuations. Should we do the work to identify the reasons?

It also makes clear that the reason for the apparent discrepancy is unknown, though that is also obvious from reading the article.

I think what I would like to see is cause of death data by source for a period of time required for necessary context. I have not seen an article that does that, but perhaps you have and can post it.

Look at the graph provided in the article. More than three years of actual death data is presented along with "expected" deaths which can be assumed to be some kind of average. You can clearly see the annual winter increases that presumably include flu deaths. Year to year numbers are quite consistent. Then COVID-19 hits in March 2020.

 

[Montecfo]

Look at the graph provided in the article. More than three years of actual death data is presented along with "expected" deaths which can be assumed to be some kind of average. You can clearly see the annual winter increases that presumably include flu deaths. Year to year numbers are quite consistent. Then COVID-19 hits in March 2020.

Yes. I would like to see it explained factually. The article does not do that.

I hope it means a lot more people have been exposed to CV than we thought. But my guess is the actual count will reflect a variety of causes including the record breaking flu.

 

[audreyh1]

jim584672 pointed this article out on another thread:

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests

Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. These increases belie arguments that the virus is only killing people who would have died anyway from other causes. Instead, the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years..

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

 

[Montecfo]

Audreyh1,

Did see that article just now. I hope Fauci/Birx will be asked about this. It seems implausible that current
Covid deaths could be understated with the guidelines and how they say they are reporting.

It definitely needs more info/explanation.

 

[Koolau]

Realistically, without an autopsy (WITH thorough proper testing) we don't really know how many Covid deaths there have been. My guess is there are relatively few autopsies being performed on those 'presumed' to be Covid deaths. If a doc signs off that it's Covid, that's usually all that's needed. BUT, at best, (in the most neutral of doctor-reporting) people are dying WITH Covid. They may not all be dying OF Covid. Examine an autopsy report sometime, and you will be surprised that some cancer victims do not die OF cancer and some heart disease victims do not die of heart disease. They may be listed as contributing, but not causal in the official sense.

My point is that if one were to 'guess', Covid death certifications are over stated right now - not understated. I have no guess about the accuracy of flu deaths because they are neither political nor particularly 'financially-recoverable' events. Covid is a new ball game. Underestimation would be punished and over estimation will be ignored (maybe until later.) Anyway, that's MY opinion and no, I'm not a doc.

In any case, YMMV.

 

[street]

Thanks for sharing that article. I have read many conflicting history data on flu deaths or contributing factors to people deaths, that wild inaccurate data is my conclusion.

Misinformed and misleading on past data and misinformed with factual data now with how deaths are recorded as death from covid 19.

Just guessing and no really true facts are very disappointing and have lead to fear and panic.

 

[Montecfo]

I am really surprised there is little published data on this apparent discrepancy.

My guess is spike in heart attack since it is largest cause of death in US, it kills suddenly and anecdotal evidence and published reports suggest ER visits for cardiac/stroke are down sharply. Also exacerbated by job loss, worry, etc.

But again, how could this have not been flagged by health professionals?

Despite corona panic, much of the health infrastructure and workers are not busy.

 

[statsman]

My point is that if one were to 'guess', Covid death certifications are over stated right now - not understated. I have no guess about the accuracy of flu deaths because they are neither political nor particularly 'financially-recoverable' events. Covid is a new ball game. Underestimation would be punished and over estimation will be ignored (maybe until later.) Anyway, that's MY opinion and no, I'm not a doc.

Eight years ago, my mom ended up in a rehabilitation center because of some breathing issues related to various other health issues she had (she was on dialysis, etc.). She had been in the hospital for nearly a week before being deemed well enough to be transferred there.

About a week after being there and improving, the facility went on lockdown because the flu was spreading through the patients. Guests were told they could not see their family members (which I later was told was not true for immediate family).

Less than a week into the lockdown my mom passed away. She had been recovering, then faded suddenly. Nowhere on the death certificate does it mention the flu, but I suspect there's a good chance it might have contributed to her death. If this had happened last month, I suspect COVID-19 would have been mentioned as a possible cause.

It's possible that we're over-reporting COVID-19 deaths right now. It's also quite possible we've under-reported deaths where flus were involved in the past.

 

[Sunset]

I think Covid-19 deaths are under-reported.. Certainly not over-reported.

The actual number of deaths is crazy high, but hidden from public view, so life appears normal.

In NY they are storing bodies in multiple tractor trailers, at a number of locations, as they cannot cremate them fast enough. Normally crematoriums can handle the death rate, now they are overwhelmed.

This suggests the death rate is very high there, much higher than normal. Deaths from some other causes example car accidents are down, so something is making up the difference and more.

 

[Winemaker]

I think Covid-19 deaths are under-reported.. Certainly not over-reported.

The actual number of deaths is crazy high, but hidden from public view, so life appears normal.

In NY they are storing bodies in multiple tractor trailers, at a number of locations, as they cannot cremate them fast enough. Normally crematoriums can handle the death rate, now they are overwhelmed.

This suggests the death rate is very high there, much higher than normal. Deaths from some other causes example car accidents are down, so something is making up the difference and more.

Perhaps the reason that they are behind in cremations is that might be the "more preferred" way to take care of a loved one, in the current circumstances. So if they are more popular, the longer the line. And it might be a preferred way to make sure the virus is "dead" and not lingering in a body in a cemetary. We all know where the body fluids go during embalming.

 

[ivinsfan]

I am really surprised there is little published data on this apparent discrepancy.

My guess is spike in heart attack since it is largest cause of death in US, it kills suddenly and anecdotal evidence and published reports suggest ER visits for cardiac/stroke are down sharply. Also exacerbated by job loss, worry, etc.

But again, how could this have not been flagged by health professionals?

Despite corona panic, much of the health infrastructure and workers are not busy.

I cant agree with your heart attack premise....my DB and DH both had cardiac issues come on rather suddenly ER style and believe me, when that happens the last thing on your mind is a virus you "might" catch.. No one in the grip of a cardiac problem is going to skip an ER visit.

 

[Montecfo]

I cant agree with your heart attack premise....my DB and DH both had cardiac issues come on rather suddenly ER style and believe me, when that happens the last thing on your mind is a virus you "might" catch.. No one in the grip of a cardiac problem is going to skip an ER visit.

There was a separate article in this thread about cardiac/stroke ER visits being way down. Given cardiac is biggest killer in US and kills suddenly, it fits the limited info we have. But of course just a guess.

And I have CAD so have read about it a lot. I do think someone experiencing minor chest pains ( common early warning) could be more likely to decide "it's nothing" with CV lurking.

Do you have a theory?

 

[Ian S]

This suggests the death rate is very high there, much higher than normal. Deaths from some other causes example car accidents are down, so something is making up the difference and more.

I'm including a graph that plots the weekly deaths as a function of time for NYC starting around January 2017. There is an expected and actual curve but they nearly coincide over the three years from January 2017 through January 2020. You can see what may be the annual effect of flu season with a very slight peak around January each year. However, if you look to March 2020, you see a huge spike in the weekly death rate. The Times calculates the excess deaths (i.e. over and above what would have been expected over the timeframe) from March 11 at 20,900. The number of COVID-19 deaths including those presumed to have died from the virus but not tested is 16,700. That leaves a huge number, 4,200, of unaccounted for excess deaths. Anyone who thinks COVID-19 deaths are overestimated needs to come up with a plausible explanation to account for these mysterious deaths. Maybe a few are folks who put off going to the ER with chest pains, but 4,200? C'mon!

 

[ivinsfan]

There was a separate article in this thread about cardiac/stroke ER visits being way down. Given cardiac is biggest killer in US and kills suddenly, it fits the limited info we have. But of course just a guess.

And I have CAD so have read about it a lot. I do think someone experiencing minor chest pains ( common early warning) could be more likely to decide "it's nothing" with CV lurking.

Do you have a theory?

Yes my theory is if you have chest pains you will go to the ER COVID or no COVID...no different then if you get hit by a bus you will go to the ER COVID or no COVID...

 

[Navigator]

Interesting discussion. I’m learning a lot from posts with actual data in them. I must admit that it never occurred to me that anyone would believe that Covid-19 deaths were overstated, but I try to keep an open mind. When I search this question online, though, I only find epidemiologists who think the number of deaths is far higher than the official number. For example, Daniel Weinberger, an epidemiologist from the Yale School of Public Health said the actual death toll is probably 50% higher than the official count. It’s not just in the US. Dr. Daniel Lopez-Acuna, an epidemiologist and former World Health Organization official said undercounting is occurring everywhere. Apparently this happens in all pandemics. For example, CDC estimates reported deaths from the H1N1 flu were underestimated by a factor of 15.

 

[martyp]

Interesting discussion. I’m learning a lot from posts with actual data in them. I must admit that it never occurred to me that anyone would believe that Covid-19 deaths were overstated, but I try to keep an open mind. When I search this question online, though, I only find epidemiologists who think the number of deaths is far higher than the official number. For example, Daniel Weinberger, an epidemiologist from the Yale School of Public Health said the actual death toll is probably 50% higher than the official count. It’s not just in the US. Dr. Daniel Lopez-Acuna, an epidemiologist and former World Health Organization official said undercounting is occurring everywhere. Apparently this happens in all pandemics. For example, CDC estimates reported deaths from the H1N1 flu were underestimated by a factor of 15.

If people are going to compare the numbers of flu deaths to the number of covid deaths then they have to do two things. They have to compare rates of deaths not numbers of dead and then they have to count deaths in the same way. The article I posted says that flu deaths are not counted the same way we are counting covid deaths. It may be that there is a valid historical reason to count flu deaths the way they do. The problem is that many people are judging the severity of the covid epidemic using an apples to oranges comparison.

 

[Navigator]

If people are going to compare the numbers of flu deaths to the number of covid deaths then they have to do two things. They have to compare rates of deaths not numbers of dead and then they have to count deaths in the same way. The article I posted says that flu deaths are not counted the same way we are counting covid deaths. It may be that there is a valid historical reason to count flu deaths the way they do. The problem is that many people are judging the severity of the covid epidemic using an apples to oranges comparison.

What you say is fair. Covid-19 deaths cannot be meaningfully compared to those of the flu, at least not yet.

 

[eytonxav]

When you follow the money it can explain why some Covid death counts might be suspect. For example, Medicare pays more if a hospital labels a pneumonia caused death as Covid vs just pneumonia. While some states require a test to confirm Covid as the cause of death, others do not (eg NY). Also they get more money if they place someone on a ventilator. While Drs themselves might not do anything wrong, they may be pressured from hospital administrators to maximize revenue.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...JjyQsxkrugvQCgDQgXSjYyDlz0w8V7wXkv3PIonftDpHk

 

[statsman]

Interesting discussion. I’m learning a lot from posts with actual data in them. I must admit that it never occurred to me that anyone would believe that Covid-19 deaths were overstated, but I try to keep an open mind. When I search this question online, though, I only find epidemiologists who think the number of deaths is far higher than the official number. For example, Daniel Weinberger, an epidemiologist from the Yale School of Public Health said the actual death toll is probably 50% higher than the official count. It’s not just in the US. Dr. Daniel Lopez-Acuna, an epidemiologist and former World Health Organization official said undercounting is occurring everywhere. Apparently this happens in all pandemics. For example, CDC estimates reported deaths from the H1N1 flu were underestimated by a factor of 15.

I wish I could find the article that documented a study stating pretty much your last statement. Official CDC numbers had US deaths for H1N1 at around 18,500, where the study concluded several years later that this number might have been closer to 200,000.

 

[garyt]

Thanks for explaining the numbers. I had no idea that the comparative flu numbers given were estimates and not counted deaths.

And it's crazy how they come up with the estimates. Saw a great article on how Canada estimates flu deaths and it's crazy. They use a few models. One is basically they take the number of summer deaths and winter deaths and all the extra deaths in winter are counted as flu deaths! Fall and crack your head on the ice? Flu death!
Another model counts all pneumonia deaths as flu deaths even though only 8% of pneumonia deaths are caused by flu!
Another counts all respiratory and heart attacks as flu deaths, and on it goes. Flu deaths are vastly overrated.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/flu-deaths-reality-check-1.1127442

 

[Montecfo]

And it's crazy how they come up with the estimates. Saw a great article on how Canada estimates flu deaths and it's crazy. They use a few models. One is basically they take the number of summer deaths and winter deaths and all the extra deaths in winter are counted as flu deaths! Fall and crack your head on the ice? Flu death!

Sounds very familiar!

And funny how the All-Time Record flu that according to Governor Cuomo "had not peaked" in February just fell off the table in March.

And even funnier how around that same time, all these "excess deaths" occurred that just MUST be covid.

I never new body counting was such an artistic endeavor.

It has certainly been an interesting thread.

 

[Ian S]

Sounds very familiar!

And funny how the All-Time Record flu that according to Governor Cuomo "had not peaked" in February just fell off the table in March.

And even funnier how around that same time, all these "excess deaths" occurred that just MUST be covid.

I never new body counting was such an artistic endeavor.

It has certainly been an interesting thread.

"All Time Record Flu?" On what are you basing that extraordinary claim? It sure doesn't appear that way although it was a bad year for pediatric cases: https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/28/flu-update

Also, the actual data in that shows that this flu season actually did peak in February despite what Governor Cuomo may or may not have claimed. By the time deaths from COVID-19 skyrocketed in April, flu season was pretty much over. Again, if you have contradictory data, please provide it.

 

[Gumby]

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