Comprehensive financial modeling/projections?

[dixonge]

I'm looking for the following:

1. Tax projections that take into account current and future rates (if known), brackets, SS tax, etc. I want to be able to use this to minimize taxes going forward.
2. Input various expected rates of return for portfolio (stocks, i-bonds, etc.)
3. Input various expected inflation rates.
4. Input various budget expense levels and investment contribution amounts
5. RMD's
6. Project all of these forward, comparing different scenarios.

IOW, a fairly comprehensive picture of current state and future projections

I've ready about several products both here and on Bogleheads, both online services and downloadable spreadsheets, but the majority seem to be geared toward helping you figure out when you can retire. I need something for *after* one has retired.

Anyone use something like this? Also I'm not looking at dropping more than $100/yr max for said info...

 

[USGrant1962]

I think the most common recommendation (after build your own spreadsheet) is Pralana Gold. I haven't tried it, but others around here have.

 

[dixonge]

I think the most common recommendation (after build your own spreadsheet) is Pralana Gold. I haven't tried it, but others around here have.

I'm not opposed to a spreadsheet, but the last one I constructed became so convoluted and inaccurate that I lost all faith in it. Not opposed to a spreadsheet-based system as long as someonen *else* has created the formulas...

 

[COcheesehead]

Search for an app called Retire Plan. I paid $4.99 through the App Store on Apple. It will let you do most everything you describe.

 

[dixonge]

Search for an app called Retire Plan. I paid $4.99 through the App Store on Apple. It will let you do most everything you describe.

Thanks - I found it, but it's iOS only? Also no update in three years

 

[COcheesehead]

Thanks - I found it, but it's iOS only? Also no update in three years

I run it on an iPad. The update shouldn’t bother you since all the variables are your own input.

 

[dixonge]

I run it on an iPad. The update shouldn’t bother you since all the variables are your own input.

no iPad here, can't imagine trying to run it on an iPhone...

 

[Exchme]

Pralana Gold is very full featured, handling a wide variety of accounts (e.g. HSAs, inherited IRAs, inherited Roths, 529). It lets you set a range of how much cash you want to hold in two different time periods, so you can spend down an initial hoard. Its tax package is very good, covering everything from dividends, capital gains, SS taxation, NIIT, IRMAA, AMT, deductions for QCDs, carryover losses and has state tax rates too. It handles two different inflation rates vs. time and allows separate inflation rates for health care vs. college tuition vs. general. You can select whether TCJA will expire or not (and when) and select when or if you want general tax rates to increase or SS benefits to decrease.

The Roth Conversion module is cool, where you can select an FPL multiple, tax bracket, IRMAA tier or 0% LTCG tax as the limit in any of 20 years.

You select the account withdrawal order, but can enter spending in any amount from any account in any year (e.g. I have plenty of healthcare receipts so I may use my HSA in some years prior to SS benefits to avoid selling appreciated assets).

If you hold the same allocation in all accounts, you can select rates of return for lots of different types of assets. If you are willing to narrow the field to stocks and bonds, you can select to hold the portfolio stock/bond allocation constant and set the order of priority of where stocks vs. bonds go.

It handles mortgages and life insurance, though I've never played with those.

There are all kinds of withdrawal methods, also comparison to historical outcomes and Monte Carlo results. My favorite feature is you can select any year since 1926 and have your portfolio start there - an interesting way to stress test Roth Conversions.

So you can build a simple model or go about as complex as you would want and never write a formula. The owner has partnered up with a web programmer and they are writing an on-line version, though that seems to be a year away yet, for now it needs Excel.

 

[COcheesehead]

no iPad here, can't imagine trying to run it on an iPhone...

Too bad, it likely is what you want.

 

[USGrant1962]

Search for an app called Retire Plan. I paid $4.99 through the App Store on Apple. It will let you do most everything you describe.

I find nothing by that name on the Apple App Store - is Retire Plan the correct name?

EDIT - nevermind. It is called RetirePlan, no space.

 

[COcheesehead]

I find nothing by that name on the Apple App Store - is Retire Plan the correct name?

Here is a screen shot of what it looks like.

 

[braumeister]

I find nothing by that name on the Apple App Store - is Retire Plan the correct name?

EDIT - nevermind. It is called RetirePlan, no space.

Not compatible with my Mac, since I'm still on an Intel chip.

 

[Morgan22]

Would MaxiFi work for you?
https://maxifiplanner.com/retirement-planning-maxifi

I don't have any experience with it, but I've seen it talked about on various blogs.

 

[dixonge]

Would MaxiFi work for you?
https://maxifiplanner.com/retirement-planning-maxifi

I don't have any experience with it, but I've seen it talked about on various blogs.

I've looked at it, but without a trial period I'm very unlikely to sign up. I am currently testing the Tiller Planner (tillerhq.com) and it is doing well. It is more focused on tracking income/expenses but, as it turns out, I kinda need that part too.

May have to explore Pralana Gold, although that one would also cost me a MS Office subscription.

 

[ImThinkin2019]

Another Pralana Gold user here. We tried a number of tools, and ended up buying Pralana Gold. It lets us input assumptions, or choose and use one of their wide variety of assumptions.

Once that's done, it lets us try three different scenarios and compare them. Then within each scenario it has a sensitivity analysis tool that lets us vary things and see the long term effect.

This is the tool that finally allowed me to convince my wife that we should do Roth rollovers before we took SS. Worth every penny.

 

[dixonge]

Not compatible with my Mac, since I'm still on an Intel chip.

Strange, I'm on an M1 chip and in my Mac App Store it shows up as only available for iPad for $4.99 - no iPhone or Mac version available.

 

[dixonge]

So, an update. I (of course) put all the options into a spreadsheet including the focus of the tool (budgeting/tracking vs. future modeling) and up-front and annual pricing. I ended up using NewRetirement. I signed up for the trial and input all my numbers, including a comparison scenario for extra spending. All options came up with 99% success rates. If I toggle it to a pessimistic outlook (low interest, high inflation) that drops me to a lower success rate but assumes that I won't adjust spending and that I have massive LTC costs at 95+. So not a scenario that is particularly likely. But if it is, I might die with zero. Hopefully by then hospice workers will have full authority to morphine me into the here-after without excessive legal barriers.

Now that I've confirmed my older, initial FireCalc results and have gained a lot of peace of mind I don't think I need to continue beyond the trial. Since most of these tools are geared for people still working, and since I'm already retired, very little is likely to change. Income is set, expenses have been modeled. So I really like NewRetirement and would recommend it to anyone still working and looking at retirement dates.

On a separate note, one of the reasons I started looking into all this is that I seem to have spent more money last year than expected and invested less. Not by a large margin, but I hate *not knowing* where the money went. So I have also been exploring tracking software. TillerHQ has community contributed templates for the basics *plus* Net Worth, Cash Flow and Retirement tracking, all in Google Sheets or Excel. No Monte Carlo simulations of course, but much more comprehensive than most tools out there. They also have a nice user forum plus customer support. I think I'm going to keep that one beyond the trial.

 

[target2019]

I've been using Flexible Retirement Planner for a few years. I've transitioned to retirement now, but definitely not early.

It's been a learning experience for me, to slowly add different custom inputs. Each year I make a copy of the file, change the EOY amounts, and play a little with new inputs while modifying or disabling previous ones.

I think tracking expenses (What is Measured is Managed, my quote) is definitely one part of the dilemma. The model in my mind is simply an INCOME cloud on the left, an INVESTMENTS cloud in the middle, and EXPENSES on the right. I've built just enough tracking for myself and others, to quickly find details for each part of the model.