Crossroads of the American Economy: Recession Storm or Gilded Boom?

[Onda]

Who genuinely believes we're thundering at high speed toward a recession combined with stubborn inflation, and who sees this moment as the start of a new Gilded Age of American prosperity?

 

[Sojourner]

Little doubt in my mind that a recession (and possibly stagflation) is FAR more likely this year than any sort of "new Gilded Age of prosperity". Far, far more likely.

 

[TickTock]

Too much uncertainty for me to believe either of those two scenarios right now. Also, there's a very wide range of possible outcomes between those two extremes. . .

 

[surprising]

I think the next step in American economic evolution is the complete automation of industries using robots. I think this would've happened naturally at some point, but tariffs or whatever might accelerate this move to robotic labor.

 

[HFWR]

Crystal ball cloudy

 

[GrayHare]

The limitless-borrow-and-spend party may be ending but there are good times yet to come.

 

[HFWR]

The limitless-borrow-and-spend party may be ending but there are good times yet to come.

Assuming that's what is happening. We may just be shifting what the limitless borrow-and-spend party gets spent on…

We’ve bounced back before from various calamities, so not counting us out. I’m just not sure we’re solving anything at the moment. But I’m just a dumb ol’ country boy.

 

[HarveyS]

Is it really as easy as A or B?

 

[jazz4cash]

Is it really as easy as A or B?

I don’t think it is. We could get both

 

[SnowballCamper]

Who genuinely believes we're thundering at high speed toward a recession combined with stubborn inflation, and who sees this moment as the start of a new Gilded Age of American prosperity?

I thought we were headed toward a recession with inflation, but then the tariff policy flinched (on electronics from china, among others). So I'm not sure anymore. The stable long term policies that could induce more manufacturing in the USA aren't stable in their current implementation, and nothing indicates that they'll be long term. So for now it's just higher viewership for the junk news channels. Yes, the crystal ball is cloudy.

 

[Montecfo]

Recession seems likely. Economy is likely already contracting. I do not see large inflation risk. I do not see most tariffs remaining in place and inflation readings have been heading in the right direction.

 

[FiveDriver]

Ray Dalio has been around the block a few times. He voiced his opinions on Meet the Press today.

 

[HFWR]

Ray Dalio has been around the block a few times. He voiced his opinions on Meet the Press today.

He has some longer recent videos on yourube.

 

[CalBird]

High inflation with slow growth, just like 1960s. My answer is C.

 

[Markola]

I think the next step in American economic evolution is the complete automation of industries using robots. I think this would've happened naturally at some point, but tariffs or whatever might accelerate this move to robotic labor.

I’ll go even further and say AI-enhanced robots are going to work already and the combination of infinite intelligence + infinite labor run 24/7 will be transforming all aspects of economic and personal life in ways we can’t yet fathom. My bet is we’ll have explosive productivity growth and it will be deflationary on prices. I don’t think the transformation will be thanks to tariffs, nor limited to America. Sounds crazy but those are my cards on the table.

 

[HFWR]

I’ll go even further and say AI-enhanced robots are going to work already and the combination of infinite intelligence + infinite labor run 24/7 will be transforming all aspects of economic and personal life in ways we can’t yet fathom. My bet is we’ll have explosive productivity growth and it will be deflationary on prices. I don’t think the transformation will be thanks to tariffs, nor limited to America. Sounds crazy but those are my cards on the table.

Though this will not happen in a vacuum…

 

[brett]

I would come down on the side of a recession.

Certainly inflation is going to increase. Inevitable due to the tariffs.

But who really knows at the moment. This is still playing out.

 

[Koolau]

My Magic 8-Ball got dropped once too often. However, I think both are possible. Hope it's only a quick or no recession which finally "curbs" our inflation "issue" followed by quick recovery and GAoAP!


As the Zen Master always says; "We'll see."

 

[target2019]

History often repeats. But there are many more outcomes than just two. Of course once we've given in to social media, we develop tunnels-vision. Your clicks lead to A-B thinking. Pick a side...

I've been watching and reading more, and trying to make sense of the chaos for at least five years. I think certain elements of Ray Dalio's "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" give the problems we face more depth.

 

[donheff]

I am usually optimistic, but I worry that AI will rapidly and massively disrupt work (albeit with some, maybe a lot, of economic benefits), while at the same time our culture and Federal Government make a radical shift away from the rule of law and human rights. I hope I am way off the mark.

 

[imjustawarrior]

I have no idea about economic crossroads, but I did enjoy this crossroads.

 

[FiveDriver]

Beautiful Downtown Clarksdale Mississippi.....we should be so lucky to hit that Crossroad.

 

[MichaelB]

History often repeats. But there are many more outcomes than just two. Of course once we've given in to social media, we develop tunnels-vision. Your clicks lead to A-B thinking. Pick a side...

+1

Only two options, polar opposites, both extremes, mutually exclusive, one describing a dismal outcome is not reality.

How to improve our collective and individual standard of living, what are we willing to do and what are the tradeoffs is a more relevant question. It’s not a simple outcome and there are many paths to choose among.

 

[bloom2708]

Maybe both? The new budget "cut" $1.5 trillion from the deficit but also added $5 trillion to the debt ceiling.

There will be trimming and cutting and when the next election rolls around, the debt will be $45-$47 trillion.

I think we needed both cutting/trimming and tax increases to have a chance to slow the deficit spending, but that is too much pain.

I don't mind the cost of things growing ever higher, but wages/salaries are not keeping up with the rising costs.

Oh well, should be fun to watch. If you are in good shape, probably 50-50 will be a good place to hang out participate and protect.

 

[HFWR]

Two ways to look at it, using a $6.99/doz eggs analogy.

1. You have to break some eggs to make an omelet.

Or…

2. All the King’s horses, and all the King’s men, couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty back together again.