Crossroads of the American Economy: Recession Storm or Gilded Boom?

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Who genuinely believes we're thundering at high speed toward a recession combined with stubborn inflation, and who sees this moment as the start of a new Gilded Age of American prosperity?
I have never forecast things. Most economists are bad forecasters too. That is based on decades of reading their opinions. When they are wrong, they update their narratives.
The most important thing for all of us is to disregard most economic indicators (actually 95% of the 24/7 media) and learn how to make money in all markets. These indicators usually can't forecast what will happen in the next 1-4-16 weeks.
 
I wish I could believe that but all the evidence is to the contrary. All I've seen are claims of waste/fraud cuts that have turned out to not be true and calls for huge tax cuts. So spending isn't decreasing and tax revenue will shrink. That's not a recipe for reigning in the deficit.
There is a huge difference between waste and fraud. Sadly, both of those things do exist in our government. The first step to fixing that problem is to admit it exists.
 
There is a huge difference between waste and fraud. Sadly, both of those things do exist in our government. The first step to fixing that problem is to admit it exists.
I agree, but nothing substantial is being done about either. It's performative. It's pretty easy to measure - if spending is increasing then the problem isn't being solved.
 
I wish I could believe that but all the evidence is to the contrary. All I've seen are claims of waste/fraud cuts that have turned out to not be true and calls for huge tax cuts. So spending isn't decreasing and tax revenue will shrink. That's not a recipe for reigning in the deficit.
In addition, they haven’t pointed DOGE in a serious way at the real source of unaccountable spending: the Department of Defense. To the contrary, they want to increase that budget to $1 trillion. So clearly they were not serious about reigning in the debt and deficit. “Hello money printer” to pay for it all and keep the party going.
 
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Is it really as easy as A or B?
When you see astronomical changes in the economy and geopolitics, it's only natural to expect major shifts. Such extremes usually signal a big move—either for better or worse.
 
As long as we can stay out of war with Iran or China, i'd say a light recession is possible, followed by better times. Who knows though?
 
Who genuinely believes we're thundering at high speed toward a recession combined with stubborn inflation, and who sees this moment as the start of a new Gilded Age of American prosperity?
Gilded Age of American prosperity is delusional. Most likely recession.
 
I agree, but nothing substantial is being done about either. It's performative. It's pretty easy to measure - if spending is increasing then the problem isn't being solved.
Nothing substantial being done? I suggest the news you watch is choosing not to report what DOGE is finding and acting on, and the billions of dollars being saved, with receipts provided. Combination of asset sales, contract/lease cancellations and renegotiations, fraud and improper payment deletion, grant cancellations, interest savings, programmatic changes, regulatory savings, and workforce reductions. Even if it were half of what’s reported it’s a huge amount of money and a great start.
 
... I think we needed both cutting/trimming and tax increases to have a chance to slow the deficit spending...
Nailed it. The problem is that those currently in power don't really give a care about the budget deficits or national debt even though they like they do. We need to keep taxes at their current level or increase them and reduce spending (but smartly, with a scapel and not a chainsaw).
 
You were part of the Gilded Age is you have a library named after you.
 
Nailed it. The problem is that those currently in power don't really give a care about the budget deficits or national debt even though they like they do. We need to keep taxes at their current level or increase them and reduce spending (but smartly, with a scapel and not a chainsaw).
Stop making sense!
 
I usually come away from these type of discussions with ambivalence since both extremes are essentially trying to convince me that the opposite view is evil.

I quickly perused the charts at
Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market.

The takeaway is that Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. on the Recession trail, of the Event-driven kind. But other indicators suggest this could morph into Cyclical bear market.

I was disappointed to read about the historical "Bear Market Bounces" too. Of course they also wash out during a recovery.
I don’t understand why you quoted my comment.
 
Nothing substantial being done? I suggest the news you watch is choosing not to report what DOGE is finding and acting on, and the billions of dollars being saved, with receipts provided. Combination of asset sales, contract/lease cancellations and renegotiations, fraud and improper payment deletion, grant cancellations, interest savings, programmatic changes, regulatory savings, and workforce reductions. Even if it were half of what’s reported it’s a huge amount of money and a great start.

Instead of choosing which “news” sources are the most slanted in one’s favored direction, how about going to the source: DOGE. Elon Musk promised publicly both $1 trillion or $2 trillion in savings. So far they are reporting, with constant revisions, $155 billion.

 
Nothing substantial being done? I suggest the news you watch is choosing not to report what DOGE is finding and acting on, and the billions of dollars being saved, with receipts provided.
I'm all for eliminating waste and cutting budgets so even the small amount they've done is better than nothing but it's not significant. Receipts posted by DOGE have been fact checked over and over and shown they're often false. There's only one news franchise that is still claiming DOGE is saving significant money and that same franchise has repeatedly claimed in court that their shows are for entertainment purposes only and are not to be taken as factual. Even Elon has admitted that there haven't been any significant savings and will be a small, small fraction of their target. These cuts, while worth doing, are a smokescreen to allow large tax cuts that will increase the deficit.
 
These political hit job posts wreck every single thread about the economy. Just don't.
 
The DOGE website is what I referenced. Yes, it’s ‘only’ 155 billion so far. I view that as a great start to addressing our devastating debt, a problem which both sides have kicked down the road and ignored. It’s an ongoing process, of course it’s not going to happen all at once. We’re only a few months into the process.
 
The DOGE website is what I referenced. Yes, it’s ‘only’ 155 billion so far. I view that as a great start to addressing our devastating debt, a problem which both sides have kicked down the road and ignored. It’s an ongoing process, of course it’s not going to happen all at once. We’re only a few months into the process.
Whether DOGE results in savings or will cause harm is highly questionable. I agree with ivinsfan that this discussion may not be appropriate for this thread.
 
The DOGE website is what I referenced. Yes, it’s ‘only’ 155 billion so far. I view that as a great start to addressing our devastating debt, a problem which both sides have kicked down the road and ignored. It’s an ongoing process, of course it’s not going to happen all at once. We’re only a few months into the process.
With what we're facing, $155 billion seems paltry. This is going to be much harder than we think
 
We are headed for a recession and inflation rising significantly sadly. So many social programs are being cut which is very harmful especially for vulnerable seniors, children and poor people in general. I really feel sorry for families with children as they just can’t stop buying food and other essentials.

I bought everything I needed for the next 4 years a few months ago. I’m also consulting as much as possible to add to my savings. It’s going to be an unpleasant and long journey.
 
Any comments I might make concerning DOGE would quickly summon the porcine enforcer, but how about some real forensic accounting?
 
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The DOGE website is what I referenced. Yes, it’s ‘only’ 155 billion so far. I view that as a great start to addressing our devastating debt, a problem which both sides have kicked down the road and ignored. It’s an ongoing process, of course it’s not going to happen all at once. We’re only a few months into the process.
Attention to out of control spending and fresh outside look at controls and practices appears warranted.
 
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