Current Inflation Index Reports and Fed Policy/Actions

[G-Money]

Employment data release this week is positive. New unemployment claims were 200k, a slight increase, but still a historically low number. Release here

The JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover) report showed continued low levels of turnover, also positive. Release here

Expectations for employment have been consistently a bit negative while actual employment numbers have been consistently a bit positive. No doubt this contributes to the Fed holding rates steady.

Does the positive job growth really count when a lot of it can be explained by already-strained workers taking on a 2nd or 3rd job to make ends meet in the current reality of exceptionally high food, housing, and energy prices?

Folks who work full time and pick up an evening/weekend gig driving for Uber or delivering pizza are counted in those numbers.

 

[Flieger]

Does the positive job growth really count when a lot of it can be explained by already-strained workers taking on a 2nd or 3rd job to make ends meet in the current reality of exceptionally high food, housing, and energy prices?

Folks who work full time and pick up an evening/weekend gig driving for Uber or delivering pizza are counted in those numbers.

Is there anything showing this is what is happening/driving these numbers?

Flieger

 

[MichaelB]

Folks who work full time and pick up an evening/weekend gig driving for Uber or delivering pizza are counted in those numbers.

Job growth is people, not tasks. It does differentiate part time to full time, but not full time to fuller.

Edit to add: here’s the latest jobs report. Table A-16 shows multiple job holders. The total actually went down from a year ago. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[Montecfo]

Very strong jobs report, 115k new jobs, blowing away the 65k estimate. Downward revisions reduced the Feb and March figures by a relatively modest 16k.

Unemployment rate was steady at 4.3% as expected.

Excellent report overall. Hiring remains pretty solid which I think suggests the Fed will keep things "steady for longer".
U.S. payrolls increased 115,000 in April, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%

U.S. payrolls increased 115,000 in April, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 55,000 in April, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

www.cnbc.com

e

 

[Montecfo]

I think the multiple jobs issue is an interesting one, but it is not a sound-bite type issue. There are multiple reasons why people have more than one job these days. Certainly economic necessity is one. But opportunism is another. The gig economy makes this easy and flexible to do. This was not out there in the same way 20 years ago.

Also, AI and remote work make it much easier to hold two full time jobs than in in the face-to-face work world.

If there is interest we can discuss as there are a lot of good sources for data.

In short, the number of people holding multiple jobs is up percentage wise recently, but below historic highs reached in the 90's.

 

[Flieger]

I think the multiple jobs issue is an interesting one, but it is not a sound-bite type issue. There are multiple reasons why people have more than one job these days. Certainly economic necessity is one. But opportunism is another. The gig economy makes this easy and flexible to do. This was not out there in the same way 20 years ago.

Also, AI and remote work make it much easier to hold two full time jobs than in in the face-to-face work world.

If there is interest we can discuss as there are a lot of good sources for data.

In short, the number of people holding multiple jobs is up percentage wise recently, but below historic highs reached in the 90's.

I'm not disputing, just want to know where people get numbers on this (multiple job numbers)?

Flieger

 

[COcheesehead]

It’s far easier today to have multiple jobs/multiple income streams.

 

[street]

It’s far easier today to have multiple jobs/multiple income streams.

I agree.

 

[MichaelB]

BLS released the jobs report this morning. Employment is still positive, 115k jobs added, which is good. A bit slow, but positive nonetheless.

Wage growth looks to be at the low end of where it’s been for the past couple of years. It’s still positive after inflation, although just a bit.

Hours worked is a key measure, and it increased slightly in April after falling a bit in March.

In all, a decent report, no reason to worry. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[Montecfo]

I'm not disputing, just want to know where people get numbers on this (multiple job numbers)?

Flieger

Honestly can't recall. But I think FRED is a source. BLS and maybe census bureau?

I think different sources would have different counts and analysis, but have not looked in detail.

 

[G-Money]

It’s far easier today to have multiple jobs/multiple income streams.

Is it because it's easy that more people hold multiple jobs, or out of necessity to reach financial goals?

 

[COcheesehead]

Is it because it's easy that more people hold multiple jobs, or out of necessity to reach financial goals?

My experience and interaction with people with multiple jobs is they choose to be that way rather than out of necessity. It gives them flexibility to work hours they desire and piece together a work week that fits child care or other obligations.
I had a conversation with a waitress recently who said when she sees a concert she wants to attend, she drives Uber for a few days and boom, she has the extra funds.

 

[MichaelB]

I'm not disputing, just want to know where people get numbers on this (multiple job numbers)?

Flieger

The BLS employment has a wealth of data. Look at table A-16 for multiple job holders. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[COcheesehead]

 

[G-Money]

The multiple jobholders data as of Q1 2026 is basically equal to that during the 2009 recession, suggesting necessity, not preference. Why does someone have to work a 2nd job just to attend a concert? Or afford gas, or food? If the answer is because they want to, did anyone ever ask if they'd rather be able to afford to do so with one primary job?

 

[Montecfo]

The multiple jobholders data as of Q1 2026 is basically equal to that during the 2009 recession, suggesting necessity, not preference. Why does someone have to work a 2nd job just to attend a concert? Or afford gas, or food? If the answer is because they want to, did anyone ever ask if they'd rather be able to afford to do so with one primary job?

Well, maybe. But the trend over time seems to tell a different story. Peak of multiple job holders as a percentage of employed was in the mid 1990's according to FRED. That period was characterized by strong economic growth and what they then called low inflation (2.95%).

Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed

Graph and download economic data for Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (LNU02026620) from Jan 1994 to Apr 2026 about multiple jobholders, 16 years +, household survey, percent, employment, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[Koolau]

The multiple jobholders data as of Q1 2026 is basically equal to that during the 2009 recession, suggesting necessity, not preference. Why does someone have to work a 2nd job just to attend a concert? Or afford gas, or food? If the answer is because they want to, did anyone ever ask if they'd rather be able to afford to do so with one primary job?

I did part time university teaching when I was w*rking at Megacorp. I did it because I wanted to. The money was unimportant to me (good thing, because Universities don't pay non-tenured folks for beans)! I just always loved the stimulation of turning minds full of mush...

 

[explanade]

115k a month is very strong? It may have beat expectations but a few years ago, it would be seen as very low.

The other part of it is consumer confidence, which is low. I think there is going to be a new consumer confidence reading next week.

 

[Montecfo]

115k a month is very strong? It may have beat expectations but a few years ago, it would be seen as very low.

Analysts called it that. We are at essentially full employment. We do not have the population growth to grow jobs a lot faster at this stage of the business cycle.

The other part of it is consumer confidence, which is low. I think there is going to be a new consumer confidence reading next week.

Consumer confidence edged up in April and March was also revised upward. But it likely will remain lower than anyone would like as long as we have a war going on and the trappings thereon.

US Consumer Confidence

A monthly survey of US consumer attitudes, spending plans, and expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates

www.conference-board.org

 

[GenXguy]

Consumer sentiment hits record low. Not a good sign for things to come.

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Montecfo]

Consumer sentiment hits record low. Not a good sign for things to come.

Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May.

www.cnbc.com

Not in reality. The target survey group was changed in 2024 to a more pessimistic audience, rendering readings since that time non-comparable to prior periods. Refer to the entire thread where this was discussed recently.

The recent trend is valid but the "record low" is apples to oranges.

 

[GenXguy]

Not in reality. The target survey group was changed in 2004 to a more pessimistic audience, rendering readings since that time non-comparable to prior periods. Refer to the entire thread where this was discussed recently.

The recent trend is valid but the "record low" is apples to oranges.

Yeah, so maybe better to say lowest in 22 years with the current method. Nothing to worry about, then.

 

[Montecfo]

Yeah, so maybe better to say lowest in 22 years with the current method. Nothing to worry about, then.

change was in 2024.

 

[pb4uski]

All spending, government and others, create demand for goods and services and contribute to inflation.

A lot of government spending are payments to people who then make their own decisions about how much of what they receive to save and how much to spend. Examples are social security (22%) and interest (14%)... those components of government spending are not necessarily chasing goods and services and causing inflation ... only to the extent that recipients decide to spend what they receive.

 

[pb4uski]

I did part time university teaching when I was w*rking at Megacorp. I did it because I wanted to. The money was unimportant to me (good thing, because Universities don't pay non-tenured folks for beans)! I just always loved the stimulation of turning minds full of mush...

I did the same. Earned peanuts but enjoyed the experience, particularly contact time in class... designing and grading quizzes and tests and class prep not so much.