Current Inflation Index Reports and Fed Policy/Actions

[Koolau]

I did the same. Earned peanuts but enjoyed the experience, particularly contact time in class... designing and grading quizzes and tests and class prep not so much.

Yeah, DW never got why I did it. I told her "consider it my hobby." That seemed to help.

 

[G POP]

Does the positive job growth really count when a lot of it can be explained by already-strained workers taking on a 2nd or 3rd job to make ends meet in the current reality of exceptionally high food, housing, and energy prices?

Folks who work full time and pick up an evening/weekend gig driving for Uber or delivering pizza are counted in those numbers.

you don't have to live in such a HCOL area.

Sold my San Diego house 7 years ago for 600K. It sold again last year for 1.1M. At 4.07 gallon I'm still paying less for gas then I was in San Diego years ago.

To me job growth is always a positive sign.

 

[G-Money]

you don't have to live in such a HCOL area.

Sold my San Diego house 7 years ago for 600K. It sold again last year for 1.1M. At 4.07 gallon I'm still paying less for gas then I was in San Diego years ago.

To me job growth is always a positive sign.

Sounds like a missed opportunity to stay in the housing market there and realize some serious growth. The kind of opportunity that makes differences in regional gas prices completely ignorable.

 

[Koolau]

Sounds like a missed opportunity to stay in the housing market there and realize some serious growth. The kind of opportunity that makes differences in regional gas prices completely ignorable.

What I have found is that most people live in a HCOL area because of what it offers them. The growth of their housing value isn't something they can easily spend or otherwise invest (yeah, I know, there are ways). To me (living in a very HCOL area) I don't even think about the value of my property other than when it comes up tangentially.

I wouldn't stay longer here just to watch my housing values rise - assuming I wanted to leave for other reasons. YMMV

 

[MichaelB]

CPI for April came out this morning. MoM was 0.6%, core 0.4%. YoY was 3.8%, core was 2.8%. Could be worse, it was about what was expected.

Details here Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M04 Results

 

[braumeister]

CPI-W was 2.9% which could mean a bigger COLA for SS next year. Too early to guess, but a pretty steep slope lately.

 

[G POP]

Sounds like a missed opportunity to stay in the housing market there and realize some serious growth. The kind of opportunity that makes differences in regional gas prices completely ignorable.

Nope. 3 months after I sold the water pipes under the slab broke. Close to 100K to fix all of that. I rented it out for 6 years after moving from the area. Proceeds helped me build my dream home on the Chesapeake Bay. When I bought in San Diego in 2002 there were 4 stop lights out to the freeway. Today? 11. Waaaay to many people in that area AND the weather really isn't that great. Overrated. Fond memories of San Diego and Southern California but am so glad I'm out of there. and BTW, we all miss opportunities. Retiring 3 years ago at age 57 I've missed out on $175k/yr salary. Oh well.

 

[Chuckanut]

3.8%. That’s bad enough, thank you. Years ago I read an article titled So What? It’s only a 4% inflation. Maybe I should try to find that article. It might be needed very soon.

 

[Chuckanut]

CPI-W was 2.9% which could mean a bigger COLA for SS next year. Too early to guess, but a pretty steep slope lately.

View attachment 63516

Sadly, a bigger COLA in my SS check when all my other dollars have lost 3.8% of their value doesn't do me much good.

 

[Flieger]

Sadly, a bigger COLA in my SS check when all my other dollars have lost 3.8% of their value doesn't do me much good.

It may in the future. Gotta stay positive!

Flieger

 

[Fermion]

TIPS are paying 2.75% real today....so...hmmm

 

[mrfeh]

CPI for April came out this morning. MoM was 0.6%, core 0.4%. YoY was 3.8%, core was 2.8%. Could be worse, it was about what was expected.

Details here Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M04 Results

Core was a tick higher than expected (forecast was .3 MoM)).

Only going to increase the next couple months, as higher oil prices are reflected in general merchandise.

I'd say the chances of any cuts this year are just about zero.

 

[GenXguy]

Sadly, a bigger COLA in my SS check when all my other dollars have lost 3.8% of their value doesn't do me much good.

Exactly. Pretty depressing. My stash also dropped quite a bit today, and a small effect on SS COLA, isn't going to help much, when I start taking SS benefits.

 

[Dtail]

Core was a tick higher than expected (forecast was .3 MoM)).

Only going to increase the next couple months, as higher oil prices are reflected in general merchandise.

I'd say the chances of any cuts this year are just about zero.

Bolded by me. Well theoretically this is correct, however.....

 

[Montecfo]

The likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year is tied to jobs in my view. If jobless claims and unemployment stay subdued then I agree no cuts.

Otherwise I think we could see cuts.

Hopefully not, steady (overall economy) as she goes.

 

[COcheesehead]

Call it a rationalization if you like, but inflation erosion on your stash doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy life and still buy all you want, it just means you die with less and apparently based on some previous threads on here, that seems to be a goal for some.

 

[GenXguy]

I'd say the chances of any cuts this year are just about zero.

I would prefer to see a rate increase at this point, to keep things under control.

 

[mrfeh]

Call it a rationalization if you like, but inflation erosion on your stash doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy life and still buy all you want, it just means you die with less and apparently based on some previous threads on here, that seems to be a goal for some.

Many people got used to the very low inflation of the '10s. Just another form of recency bias.

I really don't mind inflation of 3%, which is probably what we're gonna see for a while.

 

[mrfeh]

I would prefer to see a rate increase at this point, to keep things under control.

Barring a recession, that's probably more likely than a cut.

 

[zl55lz]

According to the CPI formula for the cost of living increase for social security, if the CPI-W continues at the pace of the past few months for the next 5 months, the COLA for 2027 would be over 6%. This is unlikely. If it continues at a moderate pace, it could be around 4%. If it stays flat at the current level the next 5 months, it should be right around 3%.

 

[Chuckanut]

I don’t know why people are surprised. Year after year of 2 trillion dollar deficits has got to be inflationary.

I am watching old reruns of West Wing. Back when it was broadcast in about 2005, the TV president was trying to keep the deficit below 200 billion. How times have changed.

 

[Fermion]

Many people got used to the very low inflation of the '10s. Just another form of recency bias.

I really don't mind inflation of 3%, which is probably what we're gonna see for a while.

Yes, this is what was edging me toward TIPS now vs bonds. 2.75% + 3% is 5.75% which is a nice yield really. I have sort of given up on the 2% inflation dream.

 

[Montecfo]

Yes, this is what was edging me toward TIPS now vs bonds. 2.75% + 3% is 5.75% which is a nice yield really. I have sort of given up on the 2% inflation dream.

what term was that?

 

[Fermion]

what term was that?

I was looking at the 30 year.

 

[mrfeh]

PPI is smoking hot. I'll let folks do their own search for the details...